Decision-Making and Reasoning Study Guide Flashcards
What is the Representativeness heuristic?
: we judge a particular outcome based on how much something is
representative of a category. This can result in base rate neglect (not pay attention to base
information) and the conjunction fallacy. The conjunction fallacy is illustrated with the “Linda
Problem.”
What are Heuristics?
They are general strategies that usually produce a satisfactory solution. They are mental
shortcuts. If they are over-used, they result in biases in our thinking.
What is base rate neglect?
not pay attention to base information
(ignore relevant statistical information in favor of case-specific information)
What is the conjunction fallacy?
“Linda Problem.”
(conjoint set of two or more specific conclusions is likelier than any single member of that same set)
What is the availability heuristic?
we tend to rate an event as likely if it is easy to think of an example of the event from memory. Plane crashes tend to get a lot of media coverage and attention so we think the flying is more dangerous than it is.
What is affect heuristics
how we often rely on our emotions, rather than concrete information, when making decisions
optimism bias
cognitive bias that causes someone to believe that they themselves are less likely to experience a negative event
What is the adjustment and anchoring heuristic?
rely too much on pre-existing information or the first information they find when making decisions
What is the Gambler’s fallacy ?
is the belief that, if an event has occurred more frequently than expected, it is less likely to happen again in the future
What is the hot hand belief?
the notion where people believe that after a string of successes, an individual or entity is more likely to have continued success
What is the illusory correlation?
the phenomenon of perceiving a relationship between variables (typically people, events, or behaviors) even when no such relationship exists
What is the premortem technique?
it help us overcome heuristic-based thinking and make better
decisions? This is by having us imagine our failures and planning how to avoid them.
lacing yourself in the future and looking back – to help teams more effectively identify risks at the outset of a project.
Explain the two main forms of reasoning?
Deductive:
Inductive:
Deductive:
Deductive reasoning is going from general to specific
Inductive:
from specific information to make general conclusions.
What is Syllogistic reasoning?
involves using principles of logic to help you decide whether a list of
specific premises (These are considered true regardless of content) allows you to draw a
particular conclusion. Certain types of syllogisms are harder to solve than other because of how
the statements are framed. It is much more difficult to judge the logical validity of statements
that have “some” statements and “negative statements”.
What is the omission bias?
people prefer omission over commission and people tend to judge harm as a result of commission more negatively than harm as a result of omission
