Decision Making Flashcards
Mainly responsible for providing leadership in the effort to achieve goals of an organization.
Manager/Engineer Manager
Process of identifying and choosing alternative courses of action in every situation encountered.
DECISION MAKING
It is the heart of all management functions
DECISION MAKING
The way of making choices by establishing a decision, collecting data, and analyzing alternative resolutions.
DECISION MAKING
Conditions for Making a Decision:
• MUST have at least two (2) choices from which to choose
• MUST involve something that is achievable
• MUST have the POWER to decide
These need to be taken at different levels in an organization.
Decisions
responsible for decision-making.
engineering manager
must try to choose a choice as reliably as possible.
Management
As they have the authority, they are accountable for whatever result their choices carry.
Management
Provided the steps in the process of rational decision-making.
David H. Holt
DECISION-MAKING PROCESS:
- Diagnose Problem
- Analyze Environment
- Develop Viable Alternatives
- Evaluate Alternatives
- Make a Choice
- Implement Decisión
- Evaluate and Adapt Decision Results
To make an intelligent decision, it is necessary to find this first.
issue
“__________ is tantamount to having a problem half-solved.”
identification of the problem
“identification of the problem is tantamount to having a problem __________.”
half-solved
Exist when there is a difference between an actual situation and a desired situation
Problem
This is where the organization is located.
environment
Environmental analysis is conducted to identify these constraints:
● Internal Limitations
● External Limitations
must be considered when making a decision.
Internal and external limitations
Decision-making process where it is necessary to find the issue first.
Diagnose Problem
Decision-making process where constraints are identified.
Analyze the Environment
Examples of Internal Limitations:
- Limited Funds
- Limited Training
- Ill-Designed Facilities
Examples of External Limitations
- Patents controlled by other organization
- Limited Market
- Strict Local Zoning Regulations
Components of the Environment:
- Internal Environment
- External Environment
Refers to organizations activities within a firm.
Internal Environment
Factors that are outside of the organization and not usually under top management’s short-run.
External Environment
must consider the best one among the alternative solutions.
manager
Decision-making process where the manager must consider the best one among the alternative solutions.
Develop Viable Alternatives
procedure/steps in developing viable alternatives:
- Prepare a list of alternative solutions.
- Determine the viability of each solutions.
- Revise the list by striking out those which are not viable.
Proper assessment of __________ makes it less difficult to select the best option.
remaining alternatives
Each alternative must be analyzed and evaluated in terms of its:
value, cost, and risk characteristics
Decision-making process where remaining alternatives are properly assessed, analyzed and evaluated in terms of its value, cost, and risk characteristics.
Evaluate Alternatives
Refers to benefits that can be expected
Value
Refers to out-of-pocket cost
Cost
Refer to the likelihood of achieving the goals.
Risk Characteristics
must now be able to make choice after the alternatives have been assessed
Decision-maker
“_________ refers to tube practice of choosing between alternatives that constitute possible solutions to a problem.”
Choice-making
Decision-making process where the decision-maker is able to make choice after the alternatives have been assessed.
Make a Choice
It follows after a decision has been made.
Implement Decision
Refers to carrying out the decision.
Implement Decision
Decision-making process where a plan must be devised to make an effective implementation.
Implement Decision
must understand the solution and support it.
those involved in implementation
This may or may not occur in enforcing the decision.
predicted outcome
Process which requires checking at each stage of the process to assure that the alternatives generated, and solution selected for implementation are still aligned with the goals and objectives originally specified.
Feedback
The decision-making process saying that the predicted outcome may or may not occur in enforcing the decision.
Evaluate and Adapt Decision Results
Steps taken to ensure that the tasks conducted adhere to the intended activities or set goals.
Control
In this last stage of decision-making process, the engineer manager will determine whether or not the desired outcome was accomplished.
Evaluate and Adapt Decision Results
In this last stage of decision-making process, the _________ will determine whether or not the desired outcome was accomplished.
engineer manager
APPROACHES IN SOLVING PROBLEMS:
- Qualitative Approach
- Quantitative Approach
Assessment using intuition and subjective judgement for alternatives.
Qualitative Evaluation
Qualitative approach is used when:
- Problem is simple
- Problem is familiar
- Costs involved are not great/low cost
- Immediate decisions are needed
Evaluation of alternatives using any technique in a group classified as rational and analytical.
Quantitative Evaluation
Benefits of Quantitative Approach:
- To make optimal decision in a situation where the probability of all outcomes is uncertain through the use of mathematical and statistical models.
- When the problem is well-defined, several solutions exist, and decision outcomes are easily observable, the quantitative approach to decision-making provides the best outcomes.
- Quantitative approach techniques, especially the ones relying on statistical software, have the advantage of suggesting the best solution to the problem without even identifying all possible alternatives.
make optimal decision in a situation where the probability of all outcomes is uncertain through the use of mathematical and statistical models.
Quantitative Approach
provides the best outcomes when the problem is well-defined, several solutions exist, and decision outcomes are easily observable.
Quantitative Approach
have the advantage of suggesting the best solution to the problem without even identifying all possible alternatives.
Quantitative approach techniques, especially the ones relying on statistical software
Quantitative Models for Decision Making:
- Inventory Models
- Queuing Theory
- Network Models
- Forecasting
- Regression Analysis
- Simulation
- Linear Programming
- Sampling Theory
- Statistical Decision Theory
Used to calculate the number of items that should be ordered at one time.
Economic Order Quantity Model
Economic order quantity technique applied to production orders
Production Order Quantity Model
Inventory model used for planned shortages.
Back Order Inventory Model
Used to minimize the total cost when quantity discounts are offered by suppliers.
Quantity Discount Model
Applicable to companies where waiting lines are common situation.
Queuing Theory
Determine the number of service units that will minimize both customer waiting time and cost service.
Queuing Theory
4 Inventory Models:
- Economic Order Quantity Model
- Production Order Quantity Model
- Back Order Inventory Model
- Quantity Discount Model
Quantitative models for decision making where complex tasks are divided into smaller segments that can be independently managed in order to avoid wasting time, energy, and money.
Network Models
Network Models:
- Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT)
- Critical Path Method (CPM)
Helps engineers and executives to plan, track, and manage large and complex projects by using three time estimates for each task.
Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT)
Network of technique using only one time factor per activity that enables engineer managers to schedule, monitor and control complex projects.
Critical Path Method (CPM)
The collection of past and current information to make predictions about the future.
Forecasting
A method of forecasting which examines the relation between two or more variables.
Regression Analysis
may be simple or multiple depending on the number of independent variables present.
Regression Analysis
Regression analysis depending on the number of independent variables present.
- Simple Regression
- Multiple Regression
A model constructed to represent reality.
Simulation
It is a highly sophisticated tool by means of which the decision maker develops a mathematical model of system under consideration.
Simulation
Quantitative approach that is used to generate an optimal solution within the limits imposed on the decision by constraints.
Linear Programming
Very useful as a decision-making mechanism when the system is limited by supply and demand constraints.
Linear Programming
It is not useful when the conditions are unclear or unpredictable.
Linear Programming
Quantitative approach in which population sample are statistically calculated to be used for a variety of processes.
Sampling Theory
Logical way of conceptualizing, evaluating and solving problems in situations involving minimal or partial decision-environment knowledge.
Decision Theory
Make choices in order to design a product or schedule an operation.
Engineer