Decision Analysis Flashcards
Refers to a systematic, quantitative, and interactive approach to addressing and evaluating important choices confronted by organizations in the private and public sector.
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis can be used to develop blank strategy when a decision maker is faced with several decision alternatives and an uncertain or risk-filled pattern of future events.
optimal
It is the first step in the decision analysis process.
Problem Formulation
The different possible strategies the decision maker can employ.
Decision Alternatives
Refer to the uncertain future events
States of Nature
The consequence resulting from a specific combination of a decision alternative and a state of nature or chance event outcome.
Resulting Payoffs
The decision with the largest possible payoff is chosen, the best possible payoff. Also called Maximax or Maximum of all Maximum.
Optimistic Approach
The decision alternative recommended is the one that provides the best of the worst possible payoff. Also called Maximin or Maximum of all Minimum.
Conservative Approach
Choose the alternative with the best weighted payoff. It is treating the states of nature as equal.
Laplace
Requires the construction of a regret table or an opportunity loss table. This is done by calculating for each state of nature the difference between each payoff and the largest payoff for that state of nature. Also called Minimax or Minimum of all Maximum Regret.
Minimax Regret Approach