Decision analysis Flashcards
Decision Analysis
An analytical method for systematically comparing different decision options.
Provides an orderly, analytical approach to assist decision maker in identifying the preferred course of action from among competing alternatives.
When to use decision analysis?
When uncertainty about clinical strategy is evident,
When differences in benefits and risk are evident
No head to head trials
Decision analysis characteristics
Explicit- forces you to structure the decision you face as well as identify the consequences of the possible outcomes.
Quantitative- Forces you to assign number to probability estimates and outcome valuations.
Applications of decision analysis
Choosing among treatments
Choosing between treatment and no treatment
Preventing diseases (vaccinations)
Preventing complications
Decision tree
Built to be reflective of clinical reality.
Focuses on most important components, not “real world”
Steps in decision analysis
- ) Identify decision
- ) Specify alternatives
- ) Draw tree
- ) specify branch, outcomes, probabilities
- ) Calculations
- ) Conduct a sensitivity analysis
Identifying specifc decision
Time period of analysis?
Objective of study?
Perspective?
Example- Decision on whether to add new abx A to an institutional formulary
Specify alternatives
Ideally, compare the most effective treatments Comparison: standard treatment vs. new treatment Intervention vs. no intervention More than two competing options.
Example- what should abx A compare to?
What is a choice represented by?
Square
Represents conscious decision
What is a chance represented by?
Circle
Represents probabilities
It is a chance node
What is terminal (final outcome) represented by?
Triangle.
Represents dollars, quality adjusted life years, survival
For each option of decision analysis, what do you need?
Probability of occurrence and consequences of occurrence.
Interpretation of a probability of outcome D of 0.126.
If 100 people went through the model, about 13 people (12.6) would go down pathway D.
Average cost
The cost multiplied by the probability for each terminal node and then added for each option provides the average cost.
Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER)
Change in costs/change in outcomes
Example- if 500: 500 more dollars for each additional success with abx a.
Incremental net benefit
Alternative to ICER
An estimate for health benefits (outcomes) is added into the incremental analysis (lambda, max willingness to pay, estimated value)
If INB >0, then the intervention is considered cost-effective.
What does it mean if the ICER is positive?
One medication is more effective and more costly.
Using a lambda value makes it easier to choose. If the INB value is negative, you lose value.
Sensitivity Analysis
Measures the uncertainty in a model
Does not compensate for poor assumptions
The larger the variability, induced by changing a parameter, the more sensitive the outcome is
Overview of Markov modeling
Some diseases have complex outcomes that require longer f/u periods (>1 year)
Patients my transition between health states
Each f/u interval is called a cycle
Health states in Markov
Must be mutually exclusive. Cannot have the 2 states at the same time. Typically one occurs from complications of another.
Steps in markov modeling
- ) Choose health states
- ) Determine transition states
- ) Choose how long and how many cycles
- ) Estimate probabilities associated with moving in and out of health states
- ) Estimate costs and outcomes.
Absorbing state in markov model
Once a pt is in an absorbing state, he/she cannot transition out of it.
Death
Diabetes
You need an absorbing state to finish the model.
Disadvantages of Markov Modeling
Complexity and transparency
The Markovian assumption- knowing only the present state of health is sufficient to project the trajectory of future states.
Drug policy is maintained through
Formulary system
Formulary
Preferred list of pharmaceuticals to be used in a health system that reflects current clinical judgement.
Open formulary
Can bring in products not on list.
PBM: Payer will provide coverage for formulary and non-formulary drugs
Closed formulary
Health system: Limited/no capability to bring in non-approved products
PBM: Non-formulary drugs not reimbursed by the payer.
Formulary maintenance
P and T committee
Voting members- physicians, pharmacists, nurses, health system administrators, respiratory therapists, social workers.
Subcommittees may report through P&T
P&T Activities
Formulary drug review FDA drug safety alerts Shortage formulary review Medication use evaluations Drug cost savings initiatives Monitor drug use reports Pharm rep code of conduct enforcement
Formulary categories
Formulary
Restricted formulary
Non-formulary
Non-formulary non-stock