Critical Reasoning Flashcards
tendency for a person’s expectations about the future to influence the future in a way that makes the expectations come true
Self-fulfilling prophecy
For example, if I hear that Wilbur is hostile before I ever meet him, I may be more likely to be hostile when I do meet him (“He’s hostile, so I’d better beat him to the punch”). And this may lead him to react with hostility, even though he would have been friendly if I’d been friendly myself. My prediction leads me to act in a way that makes my prediction come true.
Self-fulfilling prophecy
We commit this fallacy if we judge it more likely that Mike is a pro football player than a banker (thus ignoring the fact that there are far more bankers than pro football players).
Base rate fallacy
Ignoring statistical information in favor of using irrelevant information, that one incorrectly believes to be relevant, to make a judgment. This usually stems from the irrational belief that statistics don’t apply in a situation, for one reason or another when, in fact, they do.
Base rate fallacy
Only 6% of applicants make it into this school, but my son is brilliant! They are certainly going to accept him!
Base rate fallacy
Wilbur’s factory has been selling two models of car stereos, one for $200 and one for $300, they may be able to increase the sales of the $300 model by bringing out a $400 model.
Compromise effect
A good deal of research shows that many of us are reluctant to buy either the highest-, or the lowest-priced item. We prefer to “compromise” on a price some- where in between.
Compromise effect
Common tendency to look for evidence that confirms our hypotheses and or beliefs, and to overlook evidence that tells against them.
Confirmation Bias
Wilbur is already convinced that women are bad drivers, he may be more likely to notice or remember cases where women drove badly and to overlook or forget cases where they drive well.
Confirmation Bias
Wilbur might wonder whether Wilma has a crush on him. The fact that she goes out of her way to chat with him is confirming, though by no means conclusive, evidence that she does. And the fact that she sometimes seems to avoid him is disconfirming evidence, though it doesn’t prove that she doesn’t.
Confirmation Bias
P(A|B) = P(B|A)
Confusion of the Inverse
The probability that it is cloudy outside given that it is raining does not equal the probability that it is raining given it is cloudy outside.
Confusion of the Inverse
Most drug addicts started using drugs with marijuana, therefore marijuana users are likely to move on to hard drugs[
Confusion of the Inverse
Most accidents occur within 25 miles from home, which means you are safer further from home
Confusion of the Inverse
evaluations of, or judgments about, something are influenced by the contrast between it and things around it
Contrast effect
If the job applicant interviewed right before Wilbur does a terrible job, Wilbur is likely to seem better just by comparison
Contrast effect
the agent might discourage a person from buying a house by showing him a much better house first. And if you are in the market for a house, it is usually unwise to look at houses you know you can’t afford.
Contrast effect
when a number of people are present, and the responsibility diffuses or radiates throughout the group, so that no one feels particularly accountable.
Diffusion of responsibility
when other people are present, people in general are more likely to stand by and do nothing.
Diffusion of responsibility
members of a group often do less than when working alone
Social Loafing
lead someone to believe or do something by first asking them to do something bigger (or to believe something less probable), which you know they will refuse. After the larger request is refused, the person is often more likely to do or believe the second, smaller, thing.
Door in the face Technique
When we predict how long we will feel about some event, we tend to over-estimate the duration of the emotional impact.
Whatever our emotions, although we have ups and downs, we tend to return to a neutral ‘home’ position within a relatively short time.
Durability Bias
I think about how I would feel if my girlfriend left me. I suspect I would feel very upset and believe I would feel this way for a long time to come. The fact that I might meet someone else before long and change how I feel does not come into my thinking.
Durability Bias
We would typically require more money to sell something we already have than we would pay to buy it
Endowment effect
This causes a mismatch between buyers and sellers, where buyers are often willing to spend less than the seller deems an acceptable price.
Endowment effect
In a real-life study a number of housewives were asked a few questions about which soaps they used. A few days later both the group who had answered these questions and another group who had not been contacted before were asked if a survey team could come to their home and spend two hours recording every product that they owned. Housewives who had agreed to the small requests (to answer a few questions about soap) were over twice as likely to accede to the much larger request.
Foot-in-the-door technique
A salesman at the door often asks for something small like a glass of water. Once the resident agrees to that request, the salesman has a better chance of getting them to buy something.
Foot-in-the-door technique
The foot-in-the-door technique involves getting someone to do or believe something that is reasonably small. After they do agree to the small request, the person is more likely to comply with a larger request or suggestion.
Foot-in-the-door technique
occurs when the views of group members already incline towards being risky.
Risky shift
occurs when people who take part in a group discussion are willing to support riskier decisions than they would individually, before the group discussion.
Risky shift
when a group collectively agrees on a course of action that is more extreme than they would have made if asked individually.
Risky shift
a situational predicament in which people are or feel themselves to be at risk of confirming negative stereotypes about their social group.
Stereotype threat
Black students performed lower on tests when they were made to feel inferior before the tests.
Stereotype threat
basing a decision on past investments (that are already gone) rather than on current prospects
sunk cost
When a country is involved in a war that they aren’t winning, one of the justifications typically offered to keep fighting, even when it can only lead to further disaster, is that “if we don’t, all those soldiers who died will have died in vain.”
sunk cost
Sometimes it is important to us to follow through on a plan or commitment because we want to be the sort of person who finishes the things they start.
sunk cost
occurs because of our strong tendency to overestimate the significance of internal
causes and to underestimate the power of external (situational) causes.
Fundamental attribution error
I assume you have not done much today because you are lazy, rather than perhaps tired or lack the right resources.
Fundamental attribution error
