Critical Reasoning

Question 1

tendency for a person’s expectations about the future to influence the future in a way that makes the expectations come true

Answer 1

Self-fulfilling prophecy

Question 2

For example, if I hear that Wilbur is hostile before I ever meet him, I may be more likely to be hostile when I do meet him (“He’s hostile, so I’d better beat him to the punch”). And this may lead him to react with hostility, even though he would have been friendly if I’d been friendly myself. My prediction leads me to act in a way that makes my prediction come true.

Answer 2

Self-fulfilling prophecy

Question 3

We commit this fallacy if we judge it more likely that Mike is a pro football player than a banker (thus ignoring the fact that there are far more bankers than pro football players).

Answer 3

Base rate fallacy

Question 4

Ignoring statistical information in favor of using irrelevant information, that one incorrectly believes to be relevant, to make a judgment. This usually stems from the irrational belief that statistics don’t apply in a situation, for one reason or another when, in fact, they do.

Answer 4

Base rate fallacy

Question 5

Only 6% of applicants make it into this school, but my son is brilliant! They are certainly going to accept him!

Answer 5

Base rate fallacy

Question 6

Wilbur’s factory has been selling two models of car stereos, one for $200 and one for $300, they may be able to increase the sales of the $300 model by bringing out a $400 model.

Answer 6

Compromise effect

Question 7

A good deal of research shows that many of us are reluctant to buy either the highest-, or the lowest-priced item. We prefer to “compromise” on a price some- where in between.

Answer 7

Compromise effect

Question 8

Common tendency to look for evidence that confirms our hypotheses and or beliefs, and to overlook evidence that tells against them.

Answer 8

Confirmation Bias

Question 9

Wilbur is already convinced that women are bad drivers, he may be more likely to notice or remember cases where women drove badly and to overlook or forget cases where they drive well.

Answer 9

Confirmation Bias

Question 10

Wilbur might wonder whether Wilma has a crush on him. The fact that she goes out of her way to chat with him is confirming, though by no means conclusive, evidence that she does. And the fact that she sometimes seems to avoid him is disconfirming evidence, though it doesn’t prove that she doesn’t.

Answer 10

Confirmation Bias

Question 11

P(A|B) = P(B|A)

Answer 11

Confusion of the Inverse

Question 12

The probability that it is cloudy outside given that it is raining does not equal the probability that it is raining given it is cloudy outside.

Answer 12

Confusion of the Inverse

Question 13

Most drug addicts started using drugs with marijuana, therefore marijuana users are likely to move on to hard drugs[

Answer 13

Confusion of the Inverse

Question 14

Most accidents occur within 25 miles from home, which means you are safer further from home

Answer 14

Confusion of the Inverse

Question 15

evaluations of, or judgments about, something are influenced by the contrast between it and things around it

Answer 15

Contrast effect

Question 16

If the job applicant interviewed right before Wilbur does a terrible job, Wilbur is likely to seem better just by comparison

Answer 16

Contrast effect

Question 17

the agent might discourage a person from buying a house by showing him a much better house first. And if you are in the market for a house, it is usually unwise to look at houses you know you can’t afford.

Answer 17

Contrast effect

Question 18

when a number of people are present, and the responsibility diffuses or radiates throughout the group, so that no one feels particularly accountable.

Answer 18

Diffusion of responsibility

Question 19

when other people are present, people in general are more likely to stand by and do nothing.

Answer 19

Diffusion of responsibility

Question 20

members of a group often do less than when working alone

Answer 20

Social Loafing

Question 21

lead someone to believe or do something by first asking them to do something bigger (or to believe something less probable), which you know they will refuse. After the larger request is refused, the person is often more likely to do or believe the second, smaller, thing.

Answer 21

Door in the face Technique

Question 22

When we predict how long we will feel about some event, we tend to over-estimate the duration of the emotional impact.
Whatever our emotions, although we have ups and downs, we tend to return to a neutral ‘home’ position within a relatively short time.

Answer 22

Durability Bias

Question 23

I think about how I would feel if my girlfriend left me. I suspect I would feel very upset and believe I would feel this way for a long time to come. The fact that I might meet someone else before long and change how I feel does not come into my thinking.

Answer 23

Durability Bias

Question 24

We would typically require more money to sell something we already have than we would pay to buy it

Answer 24

Endowment effect

Question 25

This causes a mismatch between buyers and sellers, where buyers are often willing to spend less than the seller deems an acceptable price.

Answer 25

Endowment effect

Question 26

In a real-life study a number of housewives were asked a few questions about which soaps they used. A few days later both the group who had answered these questions and another group who had not been contacted before were asked if a survey team could come to their home and spend two hours recording every product that they owned. Housewives who had agreed to the small requests (to answer a few questions about soap) were over twice as likely to accede to the much larger request.

Answer 26

Foot-in-the-door technique

Question 27

A salesman at the door often asks for something small like a glass of water. Once the resident agrees to that request, the salesman has a better chance of getting them to buy something.

Answer 27

Foot-in-the-door technique

Question 28

The foot-in-the-door technique involves getting someone to do or believe something that is reasonably small. After they do agree to the small request, the person is more likely to comply with a larger request or suggestion.

Answer 28

Foot-in-the-door technique

Question 29

occurs when the views of group members already incline towards being risky.

Answer 29

Risky shift

Question 30

occurs when people who take part in a group discussion are willing to support riskier decisions than they would individually, before the group discussion.

Answer 30

Risky shift

Question 31

when a group collectively agrees on a course of action that is more extreme than they would have made if asked individually.

Answer 31

Risky shift

Question 32

a situational predicament in which people are or feel themselves to be at risk of confirming negative stereotypes about their social group.

Answer 32

Stereotype threat

Question 33

Black students performed lower on tests when they were made to feel inferior before the tests.

Answer 33

Stereotype threat

Question 34

basing a decision on past investments (that are already gone) rather than on current prospects

Answer 34

sunk cost

Question 35

When a country is involved in a war that they aren’t winning, one of the justifications typically offered to keep fighting, even when it can only lead to further disaster, is that “if we don’t, all those soldiers who died will have died in vain.”

Answer 35

sunk cost

Question 36

Sometimes it is important to us to follow through on a plan or commitment because we want to be the sort of person who finishes the things they start.

Answer 36

sunk cost

Question 37

occurs because of our strong tendency to overestimate the significance of internal causes and to underestimate the power of external (situational) causes.

Answer 37

Fundamental attribution error

Question 38

I assume you have not done much today because you are lazy, rather than perhaps tired or lack the right resources.

Answer 38

Fundamental attribution error

Question 39

When we are playing the role of observer, which is largely when we look at others, we make this fundamental attribution error. When we are thinking about ourselves, however, we will tend to make situational attributions.

Answer 39

Fundamental attribution error

Question 40

A B C occur together with x y z A D E occur together with x v w also B C occur with y z —————————————————— Therefore A is the cause, or the effect, or a part of the cause of x.

Answer 40

Joint method of agreement and difference

Question 41

if in all cases where an effect occurs, there is a single prior factor C that is common to all those cases, then C is the cause of the effect

Answer 41

Mill's method of agreement

Question 42

A B C D occur together with w x y z A E F G occur together with w t u v —————————————————— Therefore A is the cause, or the effect, of w.

Answer 42

Mill's method of agreement

Question 43

A B C D occur together with w x y z B C D occur together with x y z —————————————————— Therefore A is the cause, or the effect, or a part of the cause of w.

Answer 43

method of difference

Question 44

a loss of a given size seems bigger than a gain of the same size

Answer 44

Loss aversion

Question 45

A loss of $100 is more painful than the pleasure derived from a gain of $100.

Answer 45

Loss aversion

Question 46

The upshot of our discussion of framing is that the risks people are willing to take depend on whether they frame something as a potential gain or as a potential loss. in this case, it is framed as a loss...

Answer 46

Loss aversion

Question 47

to get someone to participate in an event of gambling, you have to at least present him a 2:1 odds... a pain of a loss is two times more painful than a gain of the same size.

Answer 47

Loss Aversion

Question 48

a perfectionist, someone who needs to be assured that their every purchase or decision was the best that could be made. The way they know for certain is to consider all the alternatives they can imagine. This creates a psychologically daunting task, which can become even more daunting as the number of options increases.

Answer 48

Maximizers

Question 49

has criteria and standards, but is not worried about the possibility that there might be something better.

Answer 49

Satisficer

Question 50

A B C occur together with x y z A± B C results in x± y z. ————————————————————— Therefore A and x are causally connected

Answer 50

method of concomitant variation

Question 51

Changing the magnitude of one factor results in the change in the magnitude of another factor.

Answer 51

method of concomitant variation

Question 52

less blatant racism that takes more subtle and indirect forms

Answer 52

modern racism

Question 53

a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimistic bias (underestimate the time needed), regardless of past completion times for similar projects.

Answer 53

planning fallacy

Question 54

it will only take me 30 min to clean my room, so their is no rush

Answer 54

planning fallacy

Question 55

when several gas stations on the East Coast wanted to charge people more for using a credit card (because this entailed more expense for the gas station), their credit-card-using customers strongly objected to this “credit card surcharge”. The charge was framed as a penalty or a loss. But when the gas stations reframed the policy as a discount for using cash—which amounted to exactly the same thing in terms of the overall cost—their customers were more willing to accept it.

Answer 55

Preference reversal

Question 56

For example, if subjects are offered one of two op- tions and asked to choose one of the pair, they tend to focus on the positive features of the two things. But when they are asked to reject one of the two (which leads to exactly the same result, namely getting one of the two things), they focus more on negative features (which is thought to be more compatible with the instruction to reject).

Answer 56

Preference reversal

Question 57

In a range of cases, responses seem tailored to be compatible with the statement of the problem or task, and this can lead to

Answer 57

Preference reversal

Question 58

when the way we word or conceptualize alternatives influences which alternative people prefer. this leads answers to be tailored to fit a certain problem.

Answer 58

Preference reversal

Question 59

You have decided to see a play where admission is $10 per ticket. As you enter the theater you discover that you have lost a $10 bill. Would you still pay $10 for a ticket to the play? You have decided to see a play and paid the admission price of $10 per ticket. As you enter the theater you discover that you have lost the ticket. The seat was not marked and the ticket cannot be recovered. Would you pay $10 for another ticket? In Case 2 the respondents seem to add the second $10 to the overall amount they would be spending on a ticket, and they aren’t willing to pay $20 to see the play. In this scenario people see the entire $20 coming out of their “budget for play.” But in the first case the $10 they lost comes out of a different psychological account—not out of the account set aside for seeing plays—so they see the ticket as costing just $10.

Answer 59

Psychological accounting

Question 60

When we get windfalls, “easy money” we tend to think of it as less valuable than money we work hard for. An extreme example of this occurs when people are gambling. They tend to think of their winnings as “house money” which is not quite their own. So they find it easy to bet with it (and, typically, to lose it).

Answer 60

Psychological accounting

Question 61

ex. buying shots with a credit card vs. using cash...

Answer 61

Psychological accounting

Question 62

people have an inner need to ensure that their beliefs and behaviors are consistent. Inconsistent or conflicting beliefs leads to disharmony, which people strive to avoid.

Answer 62

Cognitive Dissonance

Question 63

beliefs about ourselves seem to be in contradiction with our actions, so people will try to eliminate, or at least reduce it, which leads to a change in attitude or beliefs so that they can be in line with our actions.

Answer 63

Reduction Cognitive Dissonance

Question 64

Change the conflicting belief so that it is consistent with other beliefs or behaviors.

Answer 64

Reduction Cognitive Dissonance

Question 65

Focus on more supportive beliefs that outweigh the dissonant belief or behavior.

Answer 65

Reduction Cognitive Dissonance

Question 66

Reduce the importance of the conflicting belief.

Answer 66

Reduction Cognitive Dissonance

Question 67

wanting to keep things the way there are now

Answer 67

Status quo bias

Question 68

Unless things are going badly, people often prefer to keep things the same rather than risk trying something new. Loss aversion helps explain this, since the potential disadvantages of changing things loom larger than the potential advantages.

Answer 68

Status quo bias

Question 69

Sometimes there will be exceptions, cases where the formula very obviously gets things wrong. When this occurs, we should ignore the formula. But the vital point here is this: most cases are not exceptions.

Answer 69

broken leg cases

Question 70

Neither the formula nor the experts are infallible, and an expert will (over the long run) get some cases right that the formula gets wrong. But in areas where a formula does better, overall, than the experts, there will be even more cases that the formula gets right and that the expert gets wrong. (could be linked to confirmation bias on the expert side)

Answer 70

broken leg cases

Question 71

Go with the predications of experts (you can choose any experts you like, perhaps various coaches and sports writers). Or go with your own best educated guesses about who will win (gut).

Answer 71

clinical or intuitive method

Question 72

Use a formula that has been carefully developed for making such predictions.

Answer 72

Statistical or mechanical method

Question 73

In fact “formulas” or computer programs have been found to make more accu- rate predictions than experts in many areas, to be just an good as experts in many others, and to be less accurate than experts in only a few. this is because the formula isn't exposed to many of the human faults in reasonings

Answer 73

why use a formula

Question 74

A clinical psychologist’s interview with a patient or a personnel officer’s interview with a job candidate may supply highly relevant information. But the much great danger, though, is that such subjective judgments often lead us to completely ignore other information that is at least as, or even more, relevant.

Answer 74

problems with interviews

Question 75

people tend to put a greater degree of weight on interviews as opposed to the other available information.

Answer 75

Problems with interviews

Question 76

Moreover, they are immune to the various limitations and biases and fallacies that limit human reasoning.

Answer 76

why use a formula

Question 77

he supposed tendency of humans to quickly return to a relatively stable level of happiness despite major positive or negative events or life changes.

Answer 77

hedonic adaptation

Question 78

a phenomenon in which people quickly become used to changes, great or terrible, in order to maintain a stable level of happiness.

Answer 78

hedonic adaptation

Question 79

buying more won't make you happier...

Answer 79

hedonic adaptation

Question 80

my feeling of supreme coolness with my beats was short lived. I returned to my usual level of happiness, which isn't that happy.

Answer 80

hedonic adaptation

Question 81

Suppose that the following televisions are put together on display: 36-inch Panasonic for $690 42-inch Toshiba for $850 50-inch Philips for $1,480 People will tend to buy the Toshiba.

Answer 81

compromise effect

Question 82

When choosing between a nice pen for $25 and that same pen on sale for $18 at a store 15 minutes away, most people will decide to take the 15-minute trip to save the $7. But when choosing between a nice suit for $455 and that same suit on sale for $448 at a store 15 minutes away, most people will decide not to take the 15-minute trip.

Answer 82

psychological accounting

Question 83

“’Another example of the same hook is the ‘30-day money-back guarantee.’ If we are not sure whether or not we should get a new sofa, the guarantee of being able to change our mind later may push us over the hump so that we end up getting it. We fail to appreciate how our perspective will shift once we have it at home, and how we will start viewing the sofa as ours and consequently start viewing returning it as a loss.”

Answer 83

loss aversion to explain the endowment effect

Question 84

People who would use a credit card to pay $2.50 for a gallon of gas, even if they could get a five-cent-per-gallon “discount” for paying cash, will often pay $2.45 cash to avoid a five-cent credit card “surcharge.”

Answer 84

Preference Reversal

Question 85

From a medical textbook: “When a patient consults his physician with an undiagnosed disease, neither he nor the doctor knows whether it is rare until the diagnosis is finally made. Statistical methods can only be applied to a population of thousands. The individual either has a rare disease or doesn’t have it; the relative incidence of two diseases is completely irrelevant to the problem of making his diagnosis.” What fallacy is this textbook encouraging us to make?

Answer 85

base rate fallacy

Question 86

You have returned to OU after spending a glorious vacation in Hawaii, and you are miserable because you wish you were in Hawaii.

Answer 86

contrast effect

Question 87

If blacks are thought to be lazy, they find it hard to get jobs. In consequence they are seen idling around the streets, thus confirming the belief that they are lazy.

Answer 87

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Question 88

In the experiment in which students ate grasshoppers, those who had been pressured by the cold, unfriendly experimenter said that they liked the grasshoppers more than those in the group that had been asked by the nice friendly experimenter. What is this experiment supposed to indicate?

Answer 88

Reduction of Cognitive Dissonance

Question 89

Studies often confuse the probability that a person who offers physical resistance will be raped with the probability that a person who was raped offered physical resistance.

Answer 89

Confusion of the Inverse

Question 90

Driving close to home is more dangerous than driving on long trips: most accidents occur close to home.

Answer 90

Base Rate Fallacy

Question 91

A teacher says that a health problem is a lot more serious now than it was a century ago because a lot more people are dying from it. A student responds that there are a lot more people now than there were a century ago. What fallacy is the student suggesting that the teacher is committing?

Answer 91

Base Rate Fallacy

Question 92

If subjects are offered one of two options and ask to choose one of the pair, they tend to focus on the positive features of the two things. But when they are asked to reject one of the two (which leads to exactly the same result, namely getting one of the two things), they focus more on negative features. This can lead to their choosing the opposite option. (Two answers are possible here. Give one of them.)

Answer 92

Preference Reversal or Confirmation Bias

Question 93

Doctors at Harvard Medical School were given two descriptions of the short-term outcomes of surgery for lung cancer. When they were told that the short-term outcome of the surgery was a one-month survival rate of 90%, 84% of the physicians chose it. When they were told that there was a 10% mortality in the first month, 50% of the physicians chose another method of treatment. (Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow)

Answer 93

Preference Reversal

Question 94

If people don’t tip a waiter, we conclude that they are stingy. If they don’t go to work, they are lazy. If they don’t return phone calls, they are rude. If they don’t smile, they are aloof. If they hurt you, they are cruel.

Answer 94

Fundamental Attribution Error

Question 95

Most of us would be willing to drive across town to save $50 on the purchase of a $100 radio but not on the purchase of a $100,000 automobile.

Answer 95

Psychological Accounting

Question 96

Comparing two sorts of colonoscopies, Kahneman discovered that people preferred the colonoscopy that had more pain! Why did they prefer the colonoscopy that had more pain?

Answer 96

As Dr. Kahneman’s experiments show, the pain at the end — whether it is getting better or worse — plays a disproportionately large role in determining how we remember an experience. Dr. Kahneman’s conclusion was that people don’t evaluate the pain of an experience by summing up the overall total. Instead, they remember the pain at the very end — and whether it got better or worse. how bad (or good) was the most intense part of the experience and what did we feel right before the experience ended our taste and decisions are shaped by memories and the memories can be wrong since the memories only remember the peak and how it ended not the actual pleasure or pain experienced.