Credit strategy Flashcards
interpolated benchmark
use of the most liquid, on-the-run government bonds to derive a hypothetical x-year UK gilt YTM
effective spread duuration
it has equation look like effective duration
CVA
Credit valuation adjustment: present value of credit risk
default risk
probability of default:
+ likelihood that :
+ a borrower defaults or fails to meet its obligation to make full and timely payments of principal and interest
+ according to the terms of the debt security
loss severity
+ loss given default - LOD: amount of loss if default occurs
+ expressed as % of par value
credit loss rate
represents the realized percentage of par value lost to default for a group of bonds = the bonds’ default rate x the loss severity
credit migration
likelihood of change in rating of public bond, usually has a negative effect to bond prices
credit cycle
cycle of credit, should learn by heart the table
G-spread
use interpolate from gov yield
Adv:
+ transparent & maturity matching with default risk free bond
Disadv:
+ Subject to change in gov bond demand
I-spread
interpolated spread: spread use interest rate swap as a benchmark = yield - swap rate
Adv:
+ used as hedge or carry trade
Disadv:
+ Point estimate of term structure (resolve in Z-spread)
+ Limited to option-free bond
asset swap spread
= bond fixed coupon rate - MRR (market reference rate)
Adv:
+ Use in traded spread: coupon <> MRR + spread
Disadv:
+ Tradable spread rather than spread measure coresponding to CF
+ Limited to option free bond
zero-volatility spread (Z-spread)
the spread add to the discount to help the bond price equal market price
Adv: capture term structure
Disadv:
+ more complex calculation
+ limited to option free bond
Credit default swap (CDS) basis
= Z-spread on a specific bond - the CDS spread of the same (or interpolated) maturity for the same issuer.
Adv: Interpolated CDS spread & Z-spread
Disadv:
+ traded rather than measure corresponding
+ Limited to option free
option-adjusted spread (OAS)
a generalization of the Z-spread calculation that incorporates bond option pricing based on assumed interest rate volatility:
Adv: can compare option free bond to embedded option
Disadv:
+ complex
+ not stable overtime
discount margin (DM)
Additional return because of risky asset
zero-discount margin (Z-DM)
When price = par
effective spread convexity
like convexity but related to delta spread
spread duration
= - (effSpreadDu x deltaspread) + 1/2 x EffSpreadCon x (delta Spread)^2
OAS duration
= - (effSpreadDu x deltaspread) + 1/2 x EffSpreadCon x (delta Spread)^2
Duration Times Spread (DTS)
DTS ≈ (EffSpreadDur × Spread)
Excess Spread
= Spread x t - EffSpreadDu x Delta Spread
Expected excess spread return
= Spread x t - EffSpreadDu x Delta Spread - 1/2 EffSpreadCon x (deltaSpread)^2
Effective Spread Duration
like Effective Duration but replace yield by Delta MRR (Market reference rate)
Effective Spread Duration
look like Effective Duration by replace yield by Delta DM (discount margin)
Structural credit model
+ use market-based variables to estimate the market value of an issuer’s assets and the volatility of asset value.
+ The likelihood of default is defined as the probability of the asset value falling below that of liabilities.
reduce form model
solve for default intensity, or the POD over a specific time period, using observable company-specific
variables such as:
+ financial ratios
+ recovery assumptions
as well as macroeconomic variables, including:
+ economic growth
+ market volatility measures