Counterfactual reasoning Flashcards
What is counterfactual reasoning?
The ability to reason about situations and events removed from, or contrary to, current reality
Includes the ability to think about the past and the future, and situations with multiple possible outcomes
What did Piaget note about young children?
They frequently make ‘egocentric’ realist errors. More recent research demonstrates that three-year-olds have difficulty separating themselves from their own view of the world
What does counterfactual reasoning require (3)?
Thinking of what might have been requires that
1) We separate ourselves from current reality
2) Mentally construct an alternative version of the world in which one thing has changed
3) Track how this single change would have affected the rest of the world
How does counterfactual reasoning develop?
Separating from reality/ourselves from the world around us
When do children first practice separating from reality?
When they engage in pretend play from around 18 months - Leslie 1987
What did Piaget note about pretence?
It depends on the ability to represent absent objects and situations
What is pretence?
When we act as if something is thee case, while also correctly perceiving the current reality
Explain pretending and counterfactual reasoning?
Pretending is not the same as acting in error (Leslie 1987) and pretending is not counterfactual thinking.
Counterfactual thinking involves considering specific ways that the current reality could be different
When does evidence for counterfactual thinking emerge?
During the preschool years
What is one way to assess the ability to think counterfactually in children?
To tell children stories and get them to re-imagine the stories with one thing changed
What did Harris et al 1996 study find about counterfactuality in children?
Preschool children can reason counterfactually.
What were the results in the fire study?
Only 47% of 3 year olds answered correctly
But do these tasks really involve thinking about a counterfactual world or do they just involve a simple heuristic
Describe Rafetseder et al’s study on counterfactuality in children
Cake study.
One test question could be answered correctly using simple reasoning
The other question required more detailed thinking about how the counterfactual world would be different
‘What if the boy had come along instead of the girl’ - 5-6 year olds, 90% got correct
What if the girl had come along instead of the boy?
5-6 year olds = 20% correct
9-11year olds = 39 percent correct
12-14 year olds = 100% correct
What can children do by 3 years of age?
Use real-world knowledge to answer simple CF questions
What can 6 year olds do?
They use basic conditional reasoning to answer CF questions
What can 12 year olds do?
Reason in a more adult-like counterfactual way from around 12 years
What is counterfactual reasoning often used for?
To review past events that didn’t go as planned
Describe Robinson and Beck’s 2000 study
Looking at the future vs the past
A toy car drove into one of the garages; children were asked either
1) What if he had driven the other way - where would he be
2) What if next time he drives the other way - where will he be
Past question
3 year olds - 30% correct
4 year olds - 60% correct
5 year olds - 95% correct
Future question
3 year olds - 95% correct
4 year olds - 90% correct
Both questions require children to give an answer contrary to the current reality
What is the Mouse game
Children were shown a slide with two outlets; their job was to place cotton wool to ensure that a mouse landed safely
After the mouse slid down, children were asked two questions about the future;
What if next time he goes the other way. Can you put out cotton wool (to make sure the mouse lands safely next time)
To answer ‘What if next time he goes the other way?’ children need to think about a single possibility
- If the mouse went left, children must imagine (mouse going right)
- Can you put out cotton wool so he lands safely (requires children to think about two possibilities)
- Both mouse going left and mouse going right
Children can think about a single possibility in the future; they find it harder to think about multiple possibilities in the future
Children’s difficulties arise not from the past or future per se, but from whether they are required to consider multiple possibilities
Describe the association with counterfactual thinking and cognitive system
Counterfactual thinking makes heavy demands on our cognitive system
What is children’s ability to think about temporal alternatives also affected by?
Processing demands
Describe Beck et al’s study
Compared 2-4 year old performance on CF tasks, EF tasks and language
CF performance was predicted both by inhibitory control and by language ability
Supports the idea that difficulty with CF reasoning is ignoring what we know to be true
Contrasting with German and Nicholls, working memory did not predict CF performance
What happens as children grow with age?
They become better with being able to deal with more complex counterfactuals as their general cognition improves, therefore development is not simply a conceptual shift from inability to full ability
When do children solve basic informational CF tasks?
By around 5 years
