Counterfactual reasoning

Question 1

What is counterfactual reasoning?

Answer 1

The ability to reason about situations and events removed from, or contrary to, current reality
Includes the ability to think about the past and the future, and situations with multiple possible outcomes

Question 2

What did Piaget note about young children?

Answer 2

They frequently make ‘egocentric’ realist errors. More recent research demonstrates that three-year-olds have difficulty separating themselves from their own view of the world

Question 3

What does counterfactual reasoning require (3)?

Answer 3

Thinking of what might have been requires that
1) We separate ourselves from current reality
2) Mentally construct an alternative version of the world in which one thing has changed
3) Track how this single change would have affected the rest of the world

Question 4

How does counterfactual reasoning develop?

Answer 4

Separating from reality/ourselves from the world around us

Question 5

When do children first practice separating from reality?

Answer 5

When they engage in pretend play from around 18 months - Leslie 1987

Question 6

What did Piaget note about pretence?

Answer 6

It depends on the ability to represent absent objects and situations

Question 7

What is pretence?

Answer 7

When we act as if something is thee case, while also correctly perceiving the current reality

Question 8

Explain pretending and counterfactual reasoning?

Answer 8

Pretending is not the same as acting in error (Leslie 1987) and pretending is not counterfactual thinking.
Counterfactual thinking involves considering specific ways that the current reality could be different

Question 9

When does evidence for counterfactual thinking emerge?

Answer 9

During the preschool years

Question 10

What is one way to assess the ability to think counterfactually in children?

Answer 10

To tell children stories and get them to re-imagine the stories with one thing changed

Question 11

What did Harris et al 1996 study find about counterfactuality in children?

Answer 11

Preschool children can reason counterfactually.

Question 12

What were the results in the fire study?

Answer 12

Only 47% of 3 year olds answered correctly
But do these tasks really involve thinking about a counterfactual world or do they just involve a simple heuristic

Question 13

Describe Rafetseder et al’s study on counterfactuality in children

Answer 13

Cake study.
One test question could be answered correctly using simple reasoning
The other question required more detailed thinking about how the counterfactual world would be different

‘What if the boy had come along instead of the girl’ - 5-6 year olds, 90% got correct

What if the girl had come along instead of the boy?
5-6 year olds = 20% correct
9-11year olds = 39 percent correct
12-14 year olds = 100% correct

Question 14

What can children do by 3 years of age?

Answer 14

Use real-world knowledge to answer simple CF questions

Question 15

What can 6 year olds do?

Answer 15

They use basic conditional reasoning to answer CF questions

Question 16

What can 12 year olds do?

Answer 16

Reason in a more adult-like counterfactual way from around 12 years

Question 17

What is counterfactual reasoning often used for?

Answer 17

To review past events that didn’t go as planned

Question 18

Describe Robinson and Beck’s 2000 study

Answer 18

Looking at the future vs the past
A toy car drove into one of the garages; children were asked either
1) What if he had driven the other way - where would he be
2) What if next time he drives the other way - where will he be

Past question
3 year olds - 30% correct
4 year olds - 60% correct
5 year olds - 95% correct

Future question
3 year olds - 95% correct
4 year olds - 90% correct

Both questions require children to give an answer contrary to the current reality

Question 19

What is the Mouse game

Answer 19

Children were shown a slide with two outlets; their job was to place cotton wool to ensure that a mouse landed safely
After the mouse slid down, children were asked two questions about the future;
What if next time he goes the other way. Can you put out cotton wool (to make sure the mouse lands safely next time)
To answer ‘What if next time he goes the other way?’ children need to think about a single possibility
- If the mouse went left, children must imagine (mouse going right)
- Can you put out cotton wool so he lands safely (requires children to think about two possibilities)
- Both mouse going left and mouse going right

Children can think about a single possibility in the future; they find it harder to think about multiple possibilities in the future
Children’s difficulties arise not from the past or future per se, but from whether they are required to consider multiple possibilities

Question 20

Describe the association with counterfactual thinking and cognitive system

Answer 20

Counterfactual thinking makes heavy demands on our cognitive system

Question 21

What is children’s ability to think about temporal alternatives also affected by?

Answer 21

Processing demands

Question 22

Describe Beck et al’s study

Answer 22

Compared 2-4 year old performance on CF tasks, EF tasks and language
CF performance was predicted both by inhibitory control and by language ability
Supports the idea that difficulty with CF reasoning is ignoring what we know to be true
Contrasting with German and Nicholls, working memory did not predict CF performance

Question 23

What happens as children grow with age?

Answer 23

They become better with being able to deal with more complex counterfactuals as their general cognition improves, therefore development is not simply a conceptual shift from inability to full ability

Question 24

When do children solve basic informational CF tasks?

Answer 24

By around 5 years

Question 25

What does counterfactual reasoning form the basis of?

Answer 25

Complex emotions like regret and relief

Question 26

What do regret and relief require?

Answer 26

To consider a particular situation and also how that situation compares to other possible alternatives

Question 27

What do the reactions regret and relief arise from?

Answer 27

Comparing one particular outcome in relation to an alternative outcomes

Question 28

Describe Amsel et al’ 2003 study

Answer 28

Amsel et al 2003 asked children to play a game where they chose between two cards and received a reward based on the card they chose
Sometimes the other card would have given a much better reward, and sometimes it would have given a much worse reward
Children were asked to judge how other people would feel in particular game situations

5 year olds could correctly judge whether participants would be happy or sad if a particular outcome occurred. However, they showed no understanding of how people would feel if they found out a better or worse alternative could have been chosen

7 year olds correctly judged that a person would feel worse if they learned a better alternative had been available, and that they’d feel better if they learned that a worse alternative had been available

Question 29

When do adults feel worse?

Answer 29

• A negative outcome arises through something they chose to do, rather than something they chose not to do
• A negative outcomes arises following an unusual choice of action, rather than ahabitual or usual choice of actions

Question 30

Describe Guttentag and Ferrell’s study 2004

Answer 30

Guttentag and Ferrell 2004 looked at children’s views of how other people would feel
They gave children stories in which two people experienced negative outcomes but varied whether;
- The event was typical or atypical for protagonists
The outcome arose through action or inaction

7-year-olds approached adult levels of performance when judging complex emotions
In contrast, 5 year olds responses only reflected an understanding of the actual outcome, and no influence of considering alternative outcomes

Question 32

What is there a slight lag between?

Answer 32

Children experiencing counterfactual emotions and attributing them to others

7-year-olds reported feeling regret on a gambling task - they felt worse when they found out a better prize was available
But when watching other people in the same position, they reported those people would feel just as happy