Consequences of climate change

Question 1

Migration

Answer 1

• As climate change causes more frequent and extreme weather events, more people are being displaced by floods, cyclones and droughts.
  ○ Approx. 32 million internal displacements in 2022 due to weather-related hazards.
  ○ 41% increase from 2008. (UNHCR).
  
  • No protections under Refugee Convention (international law) for “climate refugees” - only provided for fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.
    Example - Tuvalu:
  • Likely to be the first state to be uninhabitable due to sea-level rise.
    Predicted to be 95% underwater by 2100

Question 2

Armed Conflict

Answer 2

• Climate change can contribute to an increase in armed conflict - specifically where shared resources like fresh water and arable farmland are shrinking due to drought.
  
  • One study estimates that by 2030 there will be a 54 per cent increase in civil conflicts in the region, or resulting in approximately 393 000 battle deaths (Burke et al., 2009).
    Example - Nigeria:
    ○ Lake Chad - once Africa’s largest freshwater body - livelihood to 30 million people.
    ○ Lake Chad has diminished by 95% in the last 60 yrs due to overuse and climate change.
    ○ Consequences:
    § Increased competition over water and land - over 3600 died in conflicts between farmers and herders from 2016 to late 2018 (Amnesty International, 2018).
    Increase in poverty has people more susceptible to recruitment by paramilitary / terrorist groups such as Boko Haram - who have offered grants to people to join.