Confounding Flashcards
Under what conditions does randomization produce exchangeability?
- Perfect compliance
- No bias
- No loss to follow-up
Why is confounding an issue in every observational study?
Unlike in a RCT, we have no reason to expect that the exposed and unexposed groups will perfectly substitute for the target population under counterfactual treatment and control conditions.
When is confounding present?
When our substitute imperfectly represents what our target would have been like under the counterfactual condition
What is a confounder?
A variable that at least partly explains why confounding is present
What are 5 sources of statistical association?
- Random error
- Reverse causation
- Selection bias (by conditioning on collider)
- Confounders
- Causal effect
3 common strategies for identifying confounders?
- Stepwise selection procedures: test covariate-disease association to see which variables to include (e.g. include in multivariate covariates that were sig in bivariate analyses)
- Compare adjusted and unadjusted estimates for the main exposure-disease association (if relative change after adjustment is greater than 10%, variable is selected)
- Traditional rules of confounding
What is the problem with stepwise procedures to identify confounders?
Arbitrary definitions of thresholds, leading to bias, overfitting, exaggerated p-values
What is the problem with change in estimate procedures to identify confounders?
It wrongly assumes that any variable that changes the exposure-outcome association should be adjusted for (could adjust for mediator)
What is the problem with the traditional epidemiologic definition of a confounder?
Can lead us to incorrectly control for consequences of the exposure and induce bias
What do DAGs encode, and what do they not encode?
Encode: causal relations
Not: magnitude/type of statistical associations
4 ways to block the backdoor path?
- Restrict
- Stratify
- Match
- Adjust
When is controlling for a surrogate confounder sufficient?
When it is strongly associated with the unmeasured confounder (when they are perfectly correlated, you can remove all of the confounding, else only part of it)
Is it ok to condition on the consequence (descendent) of a collider?
No - also induces a spurious association, to the extent that the collider and the descendent of a collider are strongly associated
What is positive confounding?
When the magnitude of the unadjusted compared to the adjusted is exaggerated
(confounding resulted in bigger effect than what really was)
What is negative confounding?
When the magnitude of the unadjusted compared to the adjusted association is underestimated
(confounded resulted in smaller effect than what really was)
What is qualitative confounding?
An extreme case when confounding results in an inversion of the direction of the association