Conflict resolution A Flashcards
1
Q
Three components of conflict
A
Actors (minimum of two), Action (strive to acquire), incompatibility
2
Q
What is an incompatibility?
A
“a severe disagreement between at least two sides, where their demands cannot be met by the same resources at the same time”
(Wallensteen, 2019, p. 17)
3
Q
Define armed conflict according to COW
A
“Sustained combat, involving organized armed forces, resulting
in a minimum of 1000 battle-related deaths.”
4
Q
Define state-based armed conflict according to Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)
A
“A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that
concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed
force between two parties, of which at least one is the
government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths
in one calendar year.”
5
Q
What is a social conflict?
A
“Social conflicts occur when two or more persons or groups
manifest the belief that they have incompatible objectives”
Kriesberg and Dayton (2017, p. 2)
6
Q
Definition of Minor Armed Conflict:
A
More than 25, but less than 1000 battle-related
deaths in a specific calendar year.
7
Q
Definition of War
A
More than 1000 battle-related deaths in a specific
calendar year.
8
Q
What does the trichotomy of conflict involve?
A
Interstate over government or territory (type 1), intrastate over government (type 2), intrastate over territory (type 3)
9
Q
What is negative piece?
A
Absence of personal (direct) violence.
E.g. absence of armed conflict; physical force
between individuals or groups.
10
Q
What is positive peace?
A
Absence of indirect (structural) violence; absence of
any social injustice (poverty, discrimination, unequal
opportunities etc.)
11
Q
What is a continuum of conflict?
A
- War 2. minor armed conflict / high political violence 3. negative piece 4. positive peace
12
Q
“Where are the major causes of war to be
found?”
A
within man, within the structure of
the separate states, within the state system.”
(Waltz 1959, p.12)]
13
Q
The individual level involves these components when we look at causes of war:
A
- human nature and emotions 2. belief systems and cognitive bias 3. personalities: peace-loving, aggressive, rational, emotional 4. misperceptions /information asymmetries
14
Q
Misperceptions of adversary’s capacity
A
Capacity
*Military strength
*Resources
*Know-how
15
Q
Misperceptions of resolve
A
Resolve
*Willingness to continue
*Costs willing to bear for the
sake of winning
16
Q
What components does the National/State/Societal Level have?
A
*Government
*Citizens/residents
*Civil society
*Rule of law
17
Q
What are governmental factors on governmental level?
A
*Structure of the political system (regime type)
*Bureaucracies (e.g. US Department of State, CIA, Department of Defence)
18
Q
What are governmental factors on societal level?
A
*Structure of economic system
*Class structure
*Public opinion
*Economic/non-economic interest groups
*Ethnic fragmentation, nationalism
*Political culture
*Political, economic and/or social inequalities
19
Q
The International System Level
A
*Anarchic structure of the international system
*Number of major powers
*Distribution of military and economic power between them
*Patterns of military alliances and trade
*Scarce resources (e.g. oil, water)
20
Q
What does nationalism and scapegoating involve?
A
*Identities: nation, country, locality, non-geographic (gender, class) etc…
*In-group and out-group: constructed identity-groups
*Scapegoating: Framing a group/country as an out-group (different to group
that one is appealing to) and unfoundedly placing blame on them
21
Q
Democracies rarely fight each other, but why?
A
*Shared democratic culture and norms
*Institutional constraints on foreign policy
*Transparency and signalling between democracies
22
Q
What is power Transition Theory?
A
All states strive to maintain an
equilibrium of power in the system. States’ main goal is to avoid the
emergence of a dominant hegemon.States will build arms and establish
alliegances to counter threatening
hegemons.Also known as ”hegemonic stability theory,
and the ”Thucydides Trap”.
Even in anarchic systems some degree of order exists due to the existance of norm and structure-setting hegemons.
23
Q
What is a conflict according to several definitions?
A
◦ A social situation in which a minimum of two actors (parties) strive to acquire at the same moment in
time an available set of resources (Wallensteen 2015)
◦ A situation in which two or more actors engage in the choice of costly inputs that are adversarially(sic)
combined against one another and generate no positive external effects for third parties (Garfinkel &
Skaperdas 2012)
◦ A perceived divergence of interest (Pruitt & Kim 2004)
◦ Two or more persons or groups manifest the belief that they have incompatible objectives (Kriesberg &
Dayton 2016)
24
Q
What is a conflict according to Levy & Thompson?
A
Sustained coordinated violence between political organisations (Levy & Thompson 2010)
25
What are the three points of the definition of social conflict about?
Let’s break it up into components!
There are two or more actors, e.g.
◦ Individuals
◦ Groups
There are one or more incompatible issues, e.g.
◦ Contesting claims to resources
◦ Divergent beliefs or values
They take some form of action, e.g.
◦ Making their claims overt
◦ Investing (time, energy, money) in the conflict
26
Why do conflicts occur? according to internal factors, relational factors, systematic factors,
Internal factors
◦ Human nature –evolution & genetics
◦ Social psychological responses –aggression, fear etc.
◦ Group processes –The primacy of ingroups, and group dynamics
Relational factors (i¨ntergroup)
◦ Inequalities (relative deprivation) –realistic conflict theory
◦ Differences in values and beliefs –social identity theory
Systemic factors
◦ (Cultural norms)
◦ Resource scarcities (material and non-material) –the rational choice approach
◦ “Consistency and stability” (upheaval) –Morals and values v.s. economic factors
Clearly, some of the factors cross-cut several levels:
◦ Group processes impact the cultural norms
◦ Biological (evolutionary) origins of intergroup biases
◦ Etc.
27
Why do conflicts occur? according to internal factors, relational factors, systematic factors, social identity theory, realistic conflict theory and other theories?
Internal factors
◦ Human nature –evolution & genetics
◦ Social psychological responses –aggression, fear etc.
◦ Group processes –The primacy of ingroups, and group dynamics
Relational factors (intergroup)
◦ Inequalities (relative deprivation) –realistic conflict theory
◦ Differences in values and beliefs –social identity theory
Systemic factors
◦ (Cultural norms)
◦ Resource scarcities (material and non-material) –the rational choice approach
◦ “Consistency and stability” (upheaval) –Morals and values v.s. economic factors
.....// Clearly, some of the factors cross-cut several levels:
◦ Group processes impact the cultural norms
◦ Biological (evolutionary) origins of intergroup biases
◦ Etc. .....
Social identity theory:
◦ Group identities based on diverse factors
(ethnicity, religion, politics)
◦ Positive identity a psychological “need”
◦ Social comparison leads to intergroup biases
◦ It is the group identity in itself that drives
conflict
Realistic conflict theory
◦ Competition over scarce resources
◦ Group identities and intergroup biases serve to
help groups obtain resources
◦ Intergroup relations results from intergroup
dependencies (Robber’s cave experiment)
Other theories
◦ Coevolution of war and sociality (parochial
altruism)
◦ Threat management theory
◦ Rational choice theory –more on this later!
28
What are the four main strategic choices in a conflict?
Four main strategies possible (De Dreu 2014, Kriesberg & Dayton 2016):
◦ Contending –Trying to force our will on the other party
◦ Approach the other party in a non-cooperative and aggressive manner.
◦ Accommodating –Giving in to the will of the other party
◦ Concede and subordinate oneself to the dominating group
◦ Problem Solving –Trying to engage with the other party to find a solution
◦ Seek solutions that satisfy both parties
◦ Avoiding –Leaving the conflict
◦ “flee the scene”
29
What is contentious tactics and what are the different types of contentious tactics?
There are many types of contentious tactics
◦ Ranging from light to heavy, not all of them
immediately identifiable as “contentious”
◦ Some are more akin to trade-offs, whereas
others are more readily coercive
◦ Violence only the heaviest kind. Of course, there
is a huge range within violence as well
Some examples of contentious tactics
◦ Persuasion
◦ Promises
◦ Threats
◦ Coercive commitment
◦ Violence
30
Why do we choose different strategic choices?
So why do we chose one or the other
◦ Partisan goals
◦ Partisan characteristics
◦ E.g. social status, gender, ideology
◦ Relations
◦ E.g. dependencies, attitudes, power relations
◦ Social context
◦ E.g. norms, audience costs etc.
31
What is the dual concern model? (look at picture)
“Self-concern” –Cares about own outcome
(selfishness)
◦ When the issue is important
◦ Issue framed as gain or loss
“Other-concern” –Cares about other party’s
outcome (altruism)
◦ Bonds with Other
◦ Dependent on Other
32
What does the strategic choice –Rational choice theory involve?
Cost-benefit analysis of strategy
◦ What is the cost of the chosen strategy?
◦ How likely is the strategy to succeed?
Based on rational choice theory
◦ Agents try to maximize their utility
◦ Consider own strategies, and other party’s
strategies
◦ Find the “best reply” to the other agents
strategic choice.
The prisoner’s dilemma (PD) game
◦ Illustration of the security dilemma
Player 2
Player 1
Cooperate Defect
Cooperate
33
What is escalation?
A transformation of the conflict with regards to...
◦ Intensity of the conflict
◦ In terms of contentious tactics, move from light to heavy tactics (an argument becomes a scuffle becomes a fight)
◦ Can also increase how rapidly the parties respond to each others actions
◦ Size of the conflict
◦ More and more resources devoted to the conflict
◦ More and more people engaged in the conflict
◦ Finally, the issue of the conflict may change as a result of escalation
◦ More issues are dragged into the conflict
◦ Goals change to more extreme outcomes
34
What may cause conflicts to escalate?
Conflicts tend to escalate due to some
instability in the situation
◦ Overreaction to provocation
◦ Impulsiveness
◦ Reduced inhibitions
◦ Autonomic arousal
◦ Inhibition-reducing substances (e.g. alcohol)
◦ Role models
◦ Social contexts
◦ Linkages to other issues (contagion)
◦ Outside involvement (interventions)
35
How can conflict escalation be inhibited?
Conflict escalation can be inhibited by certain
circumstances
◦ Blocking aggression
◦ Good moods
◦ Competing activities
◦ Personality
◦ Self-control
◦ Relationships
◦ Social bonds
◦ Interdependence
◦ Norms and institutions
◦ Balance of power and threats
36
What is the structural change model?
The structural change model entails an interaction between two parties
◦ Each action by Party incites a structural change in Other’s beliefs about party
◦ The structural change in Other leads to the use of heavier contentious tactics as a response to Party’s
behaviour.
◦ The increased intensity on Other’s contentious tactics leads to a structural change in Party’s beliefs
◦ As a result, Party responds to Other’s increase with yet heavier contentious tactics
◦ And so on in an escalatory spiral
37
What drives the structural change model?
Individual structural change
◦ Emotions such as anger, blame or fear
◦ Hostile attitudes, perceptions and goals
Group structural change
◦ Polarization of groups
◦ Contentious goals
◦ A change in norms
◦ Group cohesion increases
◦ Militant leadership rises
38
Why do conflict escalation persist?
Individual psychological factors
◦ Rationalization and cognitive dissonance
◦ Selective information processing
◦ Self-serving bias
Groups and escalation
◦ Norms and social pressure
◦ Vested interests in conflict
39
How do conflict get entrapped?
Conflict entrapment
◦ The dollar auction
◦ Sunk cost in conflict
◦ The game of Chicken
40
How do you avoid conflict entrapment?
How to avoid entrapment
◦ Setting limits to commitment
◦ “Chunking” –allowing the parties to take a step
back and reconsider
◦ Making the costs of conflict salient
◦ Avoid situations that pose a risk to social image
41
what are the causes of internal conflict?
*Just one single factor does not contribute to the emergence and
expansion of armed conflict
*Two or all of the factors mentioned above can contribute to the
emergence and expansion of armed conflict
*One factor may be prominent than others to the emergence and
expansion of armed conflict
42
What are three types of organized violence?
state-based armed conflict, one-sided violence, non-state conflict
43
What is a state-based conflict?
government vs government or government vs rebel groups, concerning government or territory or both and battle-related deaths are >25
44
What is a non-state conflict?
groups, non-state actors, communal groups. violence between rebel groups or communal conflicts
45
one-sided violence
governments or rebel groups. violence against genocides, massacres
46
since when do we count state-based violence?
1946
47
since when do we count non-state and one-sided violence?
1989
48
What does multidimensional peacekeeping involve?
*Human rights monitoring
*Monitoring and running elections
*Security sector reform (both police and military)
*Providing humanitarian aid
*Demining
*Re-building of judicial institutions
*Disarmament, demobilization and *reintegration
.... State-building?
49
what is peacekeeping about?
maintaining a peace that has been established
50
Peace enforcement
creating peace where there is conflict
51
Peacekeeping
maintaining a peace that has been established
52
What is the responsibility to Protect (R2P) principle (2006) about?
Each individual state has the responsibility to protect its population from
genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity
*Where a state is "manifestly failing" in these responsibilities, the
international community should take action to protect the population.
53
What are other peacekeeping organisations?
African Union
ECOWAS
NATO
54
What is the order of the curve conflict escalation?
Latent conflict, conflict emergence, conflict escalation, hurting stalemate, de-escalation, dispute settlement, post-conflict peace-building
55
What is de-escalation?
decreased intensity of conflict, a change toward less contentious tactics
56
How can a conflict end?
◦ One side overwhelms the other and emerges victorious
◦ The parties decide to abandon or avoid the conflict
◦ A third party imposes a settlement on the conflicting parties
◦ The parties decide to change strategy and negotiate a settlement –what we will focus on today!
57
What is a perceived stalemate?
Occurs when one party comes to the realization (perceived or real) that they will not be able to win with the
current strategy. ”Parties resolve their conflict only when they are ready to do so—when alternative, usually unilateral,
means of achieving a satisfactory result are blocked and the parties find themselves in an uncomfortable
and costly predicament.” –I. William Zartman (2000)
58
What are four main reasons for an adversary to perceive that the conflict has reached a stalemate?
◦ The contentious tactics used are not successful
◦ The necessary resources are exhausted or economic situation changes
◦ Loss of support for the cause
◦ Cost-benefit analysis yields a negative outcome
59
Why might it be difficult for the parties to come to this realization?
◦ Psychological entrapment in the conflict (e.g. sunk cost)
◦ Severe structural change causing intense hostility and hatred
◦ May require some kind of “shock” in order to realize the state of stalemate
60
Once a stalemate is perceived, preferably by both parties, de-escalation is possible if.....
◦ The parties see that their current contentious strategy will not succeed (or)
◦ The relative salience of the contentious issues have changed
61
What is negotiation?
A discussion among two or more parties with the apparent aim of resolving a divergence of interest
62
What does negotiation require?
◦ Requires some form of perceived potential common ground
◦ Requires that the parties envision good prospects for a mutually acceptable solution that does not threaten each party’s most significant interests
◦ Requires the belief that problem solving will be successful (perceived feasibility)
◦ Requires belief that the other can commit to negotiated settlement
63
How do you get de-escalation going?
◦ Foster communication
◦ Find superordinate (common) goals
◦ Unilateral, credible, conciliatory initiatives
◦ Bring in mediators
64
What is problem solving?
◦ Problem solving is about trying to synchronise
one’s own and the other’s interests and
aspirations
65
What does problem solving involve?
◦ Reframing the conflict as no longer zero-sum
◦ The eventual goal is to arrive at an outcome which ends the conflict in a mutually acceptable manner
66
What are two main ways in which problem solving may
arrive at a settled outcome?
◦ Compromise
◦ Integrative solution
67
What are 5 negotiation strategies that could be problem solving?
◦ Exploring potential trade-offs
◦ Finding low-priority features to make initial
concessions on
◦ Building credibility and trust
◦ Finding mutual gains, goals and values
68
What is important to keep in mind to when negotiation is possible?
◦ Aim is still to pursue one’s interests (self-concern)
◦ Hard-liners and “spoilers” may limit progress
◦ Negotiations often asymmetrical, outcomes as well
◦ But parties may use negotiations instrumentally as well - Stalling
69
What is underlying interests revisited in conflict management?
◦ There may be hierarchies of interest
◦ May be incompatibilities in several tiers
◦ Try to find compatible interests in a lower tier
70
What is BATNA and why does it happen?
Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement
◦ Can be shaped by:
◦ Change in external factors
◦ Change in framing of conflict
71
How can conflict escalation be prevented?
◦ Avoiding overreaction and increase in contentiousness of tactics –but can be difficult
◦ Maintaining focus on the main issue of contention, avoiding adding additional issues.
◦ Addressing the contentious issue.
◦ Fostering inter-group contact and mutual learning about one another (contact hypothesis).
◦ Developing shared norms/rules of conduct/institutions for conflict resolution.
◦ Providing mediation by external part.
◦ Making costs salient and encouraging reflection –”chunking”
72
What can conflict lead to?
◦ Polarization
◦ Hostility and distrust
◦ Vengeance-seeking
◦ ... between individuals and groups within society
73
What are components of reconciliation?
◦ Truth
◦ Justice
◦ Regard
◦ Security
74
What is a third party and how can third parties intervene in conflict
◦ Any person or group that is external to the
conflict and its parties
◦ A third party need not be unbiased, but cannot
directly be part of the conflict
by
◦ Encouraging settlement or stalemate
75
What is a third party and how can third parties intervene in conflict?
◦ Any person or group that is external to the
conflict and its parties
◦ A third party need not be unbiased, but cannot
directly be part of the conflict
by
◦ Encouraging settlement or stalemate
76
How does third parties and second parties differentiate?
Secondary parties, in contrast, are those
where an previously external actor intervenes on one of the sides of the conflict. They become party to the conflict, and are hence
not external any longer
77
What are examples of third parties?
◦ Mediators
◦ Intermediaries
◦ Peacekeepers
◦ Conflict management professionals
◦ Relation therapists
◦ Etc.
78
What are Wallensteens theoretical approaches to conflict analysis?
*Conflict dynamics
*Basic needs
*Rational calculation
79
What can you say about conflict dynamics?
Conflict as a dynamic social phenomenon that is in itself powerful
*Once conflict is initiated, it develops its own dynamics
*Conflict describes a process of action, reaction, and escalation
80
What is the conflict triangle?
Consists of
*Attitudes (emotions towards and perceptions of the other)
*Behaviour (how is conflict acted out?)
*Contradiction (incompatibility)
*Interact and reinforce each other
*Conflict can begin at any of the three cornerstones
81
What are primary goals in conflict resolution?
Primary goal is to change the dynamic
and direction of the flow of events
*Focusing on resolving incompatibility
*Significance of establishing dialogue
between actors
*Actors treated symmetrically
*Importance of mediators/facilitators
A wins B fails, B wins A fails, C wins and A and B fails. The ideal is D A and B wins
82
What is basic needs approach and what can it lead to if its not met?
*Actors have basic needs and expectation thereof
*If basic needs are unmet: “frustration" and “deprivation"
*Conflict starts or escalates if gap between expected and actual need
satisfaction becomes too large
Expectations are always higher than performance but if the gap is too large it could lead to serious problems
83
What can you do if the basic needs aren’t met?
*Focusing on locating unmet needs
*Actors (may be) treated asymmetrical
*Negotiation focus just on elites may not be enough
84
What is the rational calculation approach?
*Conflicts rise from rational calculations of actors
*Party A makes calculation to start violence, Party B defends itself
*“Ripe moments”, “hurting stalemates”, and “enticing opportunities.”
85
What are implications behind rational calculation approach and conflict resolutions?
*Focus on when conflict can be ended
*Finding interests behind positions (“real” interests, elites!)
*Outsiders can influence calculations by shaping incentives (rewarding,
punishing)
86
What is the definition of the conflict resolution?
“Social situation where the armed conflicting parties in a voluntary
agreement resolve to live peacefully with - and/or dissolve - their basic
incompatibilities and henceforth cease to use arms against another.“
87
1. What is shifting priorities in the context of conflict resolution and what are examples of that?
Parties shift their priorities, allowing progress in conflict resolution process
*Government: From overthrowing a government to wanting to have more
influence
*Territory: Reducing the salience (relevance) of the territorial (from
independence to autonomy)
88
2. What is dividing resources in the context of conflict resolution and what are examples of this?
Divide the contested resource
*Government: Divide governmental power (over time, between positions)
*Territory: Divide territory, self-administration, autonomy
89
3. What is horse trading in the context of conflict resolution and what are examples of this?
Trade-off deals (I get A, you get B in return)
*Government: I support you on policy A, you support me on policy B
*Territory: Exchanges (populations, territories), not presently favoured, but still a possibility
90
4. What is sharing control about in the context of conflict resolution and what are examples of this?
Share the contested resource
*Government: Share governmental power (e.g., coalition government)
*Territory: Joint decision-making over a territory (e.g. using water in shared
rivers)
91
5. What is leaving control to an external actor about in the context of conflict resolution and what are examples of this?
Leave control to an external actor, examples Kosovo and Serbia and East Timor and and Indonesia
92
6. What is official conflict resolution mechanisms about in the context of conflict resolution and what are examples of this?
Give up control regarding the solution of the incompatibility
1. Legal solutions (arbitration and adjudication)
2. Referendum
3. Elections
93
7. What is leave for later to an external actor about in the context of conflict resolution and what are examples of this?
Parties postpone dealing with certain issues
*Dealing with less contested issues first
*Building up trust and momentum
*Get back to most contested issues at last
94
What are all the 7 Conflict Resolution Mechanisms?
1. Shifting priorities
2. Dividing resources
3. Horse Trading
4. Sharing control
5. Leave control
6. Official conflict resolution mechanisms
7. Leave for later
95
What are two main problems remaining when conflict resolution has occurred?
*How to construct a new political and social
system?
- Participation of parties
*How to deal with internal security dilemma?
- Security of parties
96
What are different examples of the seven conflict resolution mechanisms in the context of how a democratic system works?
Elections as an example of “official conflict resolution
mechanism”
-“Horse trading” typical for parliamentary politics
-«Sharing control” the core of coalition governments
with prop. rep.
-“Postponing issues” by delegating them to
commissions, public vote
-“Dividing resources” typical for different ministries, but
also tax (re)-distribution (for instance between federal
units), federalism in general
etc.
97
What is a state-based armed conflict?
“A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns
government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two
parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least
25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.”
98
What is a non-state conflict?
“The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of
which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-
related deaths in a year.”
99
What is a one-sided violence?
“The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a
formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25
deaths in a year.”
100
When thinking about one-sided violence, what is important to keep in mind?
❗OSV does not feature a dyad
❗Deliberate (intentional) and direct targeting is key
❗Can occur in the context of armed conflict, or on its own
❗Civilians are unarmed people; not active members of an armed
group (state, militia or opposition group)
101
What can be said about civilian targeting?
Civilians or non-combatants are by definition not active on
either side in the conflict
*Support from the civilian population can be key factor for
winning a war and to remain in power after a war
*Big social investment – importance of weapons supplies,
technology and information from society
*Risk of external punishment by international community if
harming civilians
102
What are the seven different conceptual variation of civilian targeting?
1. Enforce civilian cooperation
2. Weaken civilian support for adversary
3. Change behavior of adversary
4. Territorial control
5. Principal-agent problem
6. Low group cohesion
7. Financial recruitment
103
What is enforce civilian cooperation about?
Violence as instrument to shape the relationship between
warring parties and civilians
oShape and control behavior of civilians by enforcing collaboration
*Selective violence is used to control population
oUsed to enforce compliance and deter defection to the enemy side (Kalyvas 2006)
*Indiscriminate violence is suboptimal
oOnly used when lacking information (Kalyvas 2006) or when
lacking capacity to provide positive incentives (Wood 2010)
104
What is weaken civilian support for adversary about?
*Violence as instrument to shape the relationship between
warring parties and civilians
oShape civilian’s belief about adversary party
oDeter collaboration by punishing support for enemy
*Demonstration of power and capacity/resolve
oPeople side with the likely winner
oInability of the enemy to provide protection
*Even indiscriminate may be effective (with limits)
105
What is change behavior of adversary about?
Violence as instrument to change behavior of adversary
oImpose costs on adversary by targeting supporters
oCan coerce adversary into policy change and cease fighting
*Signal resolve and willingness to fight at high costs
oOrigins in bargaining theory
oChange cost-benefits calculations of adversary for future
costs (e.g. Hultman 2007, Wood & Kathman 2013)
*Indiscriminate may be perceived as very effective
106
What is territorial control about in the context of conceptual one-sided violence?
*Violence as instrument to gain territorial control
*Eliminating enemy supporters
oE.g. when annexing territory from the enemy
oBoth ethnic and political cleansing
*Reduce density of population among which the rebels hide
107
What is a principal-agent problem and what is it about?
*Violence against civilians can be detrimental to group’s
(inefficient, loosing support etc.) survival and is unwanted by
leader, but occurs due to indiscipline of soldiers
108
What is low group cohesion and what is it about?
(6) Low group cohesion:
*Preexisting social networks affect internal control
mechanisms
109
What is financial recruitment and what is it about?
Financial recruitment:
*Material or financial incentives attracts opportunistic fighters
Other explanations: ideology (e.g. Gutierrez-Sanin & Wood 2014), leadership
deficits (Abrahms & Potter 2015) etc.
110
Which of the seven different conceptual variation of civilian targeting is strategic and what is non-strategic?
Strategic
1. Enforce civilian cooperation
2. Weaken civilian support for adversary
3. Change behavior of adversary
4. Territorial control
Non-strategic
5. Principal-agent problem
6. Low group cohesion
7. Financial recruitment
111
What is a non-state conflict?
“The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of
which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-
related deaths in a year.”
112
what is the purpose of violence in the context of civil war?
Aim: Understanding rebel versus rebel violence in the
context of civil war
*Underlying assumption: rebel groups as rational actors with
two (related) aims
1. Maximize material spoils
2. Maximize political leverage
*Inter-rebel violence as rivalry
among groups over (1) and
(2) vis-à-vis the government
113
what is a distributional conflict along two
dimensions?
1. Competition over scarce resources
*More resources >Growth/Power >Concessions
from government àRevenue
2. Competition over political leverage/ influence
*Secure position to negotiate with government (“seat
at the table”) à“bargaining power” >Revenue
114
What does inter-rebel violence along the first dimension more likely?
Along the (1) first dimension, inter-rebel violence is more likely:
I. When a group’s wealth and mobilization strategy is based
on lootable natural resources.
ØIncreased vulnerability to challenges.
II. When a group has established zones of territorial control
beyond the government’s reach.
ØSpending resources to gain more or secure existing
resources.
*Fjelde & Nilsson (2012) find mixed support for (I.)
(depending on type of resources) and
115
What does inter-rebel violence along the second dimension more likely?
Along the (2) second dimension, inter-rebel violence is more
likely:
I. When a group is particularly weak or strong compared to
other rebel groups.
II. When the state is weak and leaves a vacuum for political
influence between the different rebel groups.
116
Why do some countries see a number of communal conflicts, while others do not?
“Groups that share a common identification along ethnic, clan, religious, national or tribal lines. These are not groups that are permanently
organized for combat, but who at times organize themselves along said
lines to engage in fighting. This level of organization captures aspects of
what is commonly referred to as ‘communal conflicts’, in that conflict
stands along lines of communal identity.” (Pettersson et al. 2021 p.7,
Sundberg, Eck, Kreutz 2012).
116
Why do some countries see a number of communal conflicts, while others do not?
“Groups that share a common identification along ethnic, clan, religious, national or tribal lines. These are not groups that are permanently
organized for combat, but who at times organize themselves along said
lines to engage in fighting. This level of organization captures aspects of
what is commonly referred to as ‘communal conflicts’, in that conflict
stands along lines of communal identity.” (Pettersson et al. 2021 p.7,
Sundberg, Eck, Kreutz 2012).
117
Why do some countries see a number of communal conflicts, while others do not?
“Groups that share a common identification along ethnic, clan, religious, national or tribal lines. These are not groups that are permanently
organized for combat, but who at times organize themselves along said
lines to engage in fighting. This level of organization captures aspects of
what is commonly referred to as ‘communal conflicts’, in that conflict
stands along lines of communal identity.” (Pettersson et al. 2021 p.7,
Sundberg, Eck, Kreutz 2012).
118
What is a communal conflict?
A communal conflict is a violent conflict between non-state
groups that are organized along a shared communal identity
(Brosché and Elfversson 2012).
*Communal conflicts happen more often in countries with
state-based violence and might transform into other types of
violence (e.g. Côte d’Ivoire)
119
What are examples of communal conflicts?
*Herder-farmer conflicts (conflicts about land and livelihood)
*Ethnic riots (in connection with elections)
*’Sons of the soil’ conflicts
120
What are structures favouring inter-communal conflicts?
Land as patronage resource in the context of biased
(national) or local politics (e.g. Boone 2014; Elfversson 2019)
*Government bias (Brosché 2014)
*Increasing resource scarcity through environmental change,
migration and population pressure (Fjelde & Von Uexkull
2012)
*Vertical and horizontal inequalities (Fjelde & Ostby 2014)
121
What can be said about politics and economics and armed conflict?
*Main argument: Economic inequality can increase the risk of
armed conflict between communal groups
*Economic inequality and group mobilization: unequal
distribution of scarce resources can harden in versus out-
group comparisons
*State-society interactions (role of the state): (1) exclusionary
political legitimacy of the state (2) incentives for competitive
mobilization of communal identities
122
Discuss an example of inter-rebel violence including the
following information:
*Are there structures that might be favoring inter-communal
tensions? (Think about resources, identity etc.)
*What could be the role of the state in managing or
intensifying this conflict?
Example: Turkana (Kenya) versus Dassanetch (Ethiopia) tribes
over water and land access
123
What can be said about non-violent resistance?
Chenoweth and Cunningham (2013)
*Multitude of definitions, e.g. ”application of unarmed civilian power using nonviolent methods such as protests,
strikes, boycotts, and demonstrations, without using or threatening physical harm against the opponent” (p. 271)
*Field characterized by majority of case studies in the beginning, but later increase in large N-studies; slow
development due to focus on violence
*Empirical puzzle: Arab Spring 2011
