Conflict and climate change Flashcards
Please explain how warfare can both lead to an increase and a decrease in post-conflict welfare.
First of all, low per capita income is correlated with higher propensities for internal war.
- Robust correlation between low per capita income and higher propensities for internal war. Causality??? Can we decide which way the causality goes. It could equaly be that higher propensities for internal war can lead to low per capita income.
To the more precise answer of the question.
- Decrese: Warfare destroys infrastructure, human capital etc. harming future development (Collier).
Increase: But warfare is also sometimes credited for the technological and institutional development,improving future conditions for economic progress (Acemoglu and Robinson).
Please outline the main warfare predictions of the contest model in relation to poverty and wealth effects.
Impact of Poverty on Soldiering: The model predicts that poverty increases the likelihood of individuals becoming soldiers. This is because in poorer conditions, the opportunity costs of fighting (what one forgoes by not engaging in peaceful economic activities) are lower. In essence, if the potential earnings from regular economic activities are meager, individuals are more inclined to join conflicts where the potential gains from appropriation might be relatively higher. However, this scarcity also means that there is a smaller “pie” to fight over, which might theoretically reduce the intensity and scale of the conflict. Yet, in desperate conditions, even small gains from conflict can be significant, potentially leading to fierce disputes over limited resources.
Relative Returns to Fighting vs. Production: The model suggests that the more lucrative the rewards of fighting compared to peaceful production, the higher the likelihood of conflict. In impoverished areas, where economic opportunities are limited, fighting can appear as a more viable means of earning a livelihood, thereby increasing participation in conflict.
Wealth Increases the Stakes of Conflict: In scenarios where greater wealth is present, there is inherently more at stake to fight over. This wealth not only attracts more participants into the conflict due to the higher potential rewards but also may lead to a greater effort being devoted to fighting rather than producing. Wealth acts as a catalyst that intensifies the conflict, as both sides may believe that victory will grant them substantial spoils, thereby justifying greater investment in military capabilities and efforts.
Please explain the difference between climate mitigation and climate adaptation.
Reducing climate change
Mitigation involves reducing the flow of heat trapping greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere
Mitigation discussion e.g. carbon taxes and quotas.
Adaption to life in a changing climate:
Adaption involves adjusting to actual or expected future climate.
Adaption discussion e.g. how do we protect people from climate change. Extreme weather, droughts, building resilient homes.
Using Figure 1 on the next page, please explain how Burke et al. (2015) connect
micro evidence on abrupt changes in productivity from increased temperature with
smooth changes at the macro level.
Highly non-linear micro-level responses of labour supply (a), labour performance (b) and crop yield (c) to daily temperature exposure exhibit similar ‘kinked’ structures between 20 and 30°C.
The micro-level responses (d) map onto country-level (macro) distributions of temperatures across different locations and times within
that country (e).
Years have different daily temperature distributions, shown by the two normaldistributions.
Aggregating daily impacts maps annual average temperature to annual output as a non-linear and concave function that is smoother than the micro response with a with a lower optimum (f)
So in general he takes the average of a year´s daily different impacts to make smooth linear function.
Please explain how Burke et al. (2015) find and compute the global non-linear relationship between annual average temperature and change in log gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (thick black line) in Figure 2 below.
This question draws on Burke et al. (2015).
The concept of an optimal level of annual temperature is central to Burke et al. (2015). The authors
argue that many micro-level variables (e.g. labour supply, crop yields etc.) react negatively to higher
prices, often with a “kinked” reaction curve where the decrease sets in at a temperature of 20-30
degrees Celsius. Combined with a distribution of temperatures experienced in given years, this leads to
an inverted-U curve of the effect of temperature on production (or growth).
What is the rationalist theory of civil war? And what are theOutline the rationalist theory?
The rationalist theory of civil war, which views war as a form of bargaining under the threat of violence, offers insights into why wars occur despite seeming irrational. This theory identifies three primary reasons why bargaining may fail, leading to war:
1. Irrationality: Sometimes, decisions leading to war may not follow rational judgment.
2. Political Agency Problems: Even if leaders are rational, they might not bear the full costs of war, leading to decisions that favor conflict over peace.
3. Inevitable War Despite Cost Internalization: Leaders may fully understand and internalize the costs of war but still find it unavoidable. This can occur due to:
* Asymmetric Information: One side may have more information than the other, leading to distrust and miscalculations. For example, a government might know more about its resources than the rebels, influencing its offers during negotiations.
* Commitment Problems: A temporarily weakened government might make concessions to a strong opposition, but once it regains strength, it might renege on these agreements.
* Issue Indivisibilities: Some conflicts center on issues that cannot be easily divided or compromised on, making peaceful resolution challenging.
The theory thus explains that war can sometimes be a rational choice due to specific strategic calculations and failures in negotiation, driven by information asymmetries, commitment issues, and indivisible stakes.
What does Issue Indivisibilities mean?
In the context of “Issue Indivisibilities” within discussions of conflict and negotiation, the term “indivisible” refers to a situation where the issue at stake cannot be easily divided or partially shared among the conflicting parties. This makes the issue fundamentally resistant to compromise or conventional bargaining solutions.
For instance, in territorial disputes, the piece of land in question may hold cultural, historical, or strategic importance that makes it impossible for either side to accept only a part of it. Similarly, disputes over sovereignty, religious sites, or deeply symbolic national issues often involve indivisibilities because each party views the entire issue as critical to its identity or survival, leaving little room for splitting the difference.
What assumption do the contest model and rationalist theory rely on? Then, how can we understand the causes of war on micro level (theories of armed conflicts - Alternatives)?
Contest models and rationalist theories: Rely upon groups
behaving as unitary actors - strong assumption (collective
action problem).
When a group forms, there are several factors which motivates and unite coalitions. Its is far more complex then saying we have two groups standing in front of each other, eventhough this is what we in the media allways here, because it is easier and a better story, bad againts the good. This area of study requires detailed data to analyze individual behaviors and choices within the context of armed conflict.
- The Participation Problem: This issue centers on the selective incentives used to motivate individuals to join and stay active within groups. Economists often explore this through the lens of “greed and grievances,” considering factors like wages, opportunities to loot, promises of future rewards, or physical protection from harm. These incentives are crucial in understanding why individuals might risk their lives in conflict settings.
- Formation of Competing Coalitions: This involves the application of non-cooperative game theory to analyze how endogenous coalitions form and operate. Within each group, there may be internal conflicts over how to distribute the collective gains, which can lead to costly disputes for the members involved. Groups that manage to maintain stability are typically those that have developed low-cost mechanisms for distributing gains among their members effectively.
- Group Size and Stability: The size and stability of these groups are influenced by their relative effectiveness in managing both internal (intra-group) and external (inter-group) conflicts. Groups that can efficiently handle these conflicts tend to be more stable and can sustain their operations over longer periods.
Please discuss the following claim: In terms of economic growth, there exists an optimal level for
the annual average temperature.
This question draws on Burke et al. (2015).
The concept of an optimal level of annual temperature is central to Burke et al. (2015). The authors
argue that many micro-level variables (e.g. labour supply, crop yields etc.) react negatively to higher
prices, often with a “kinked” reaction curve where the decrease sets in at a temperature of 20-30
degrees Celsius. Combined with a distribution of temperatures experienced in given years, this leads to an inverted-U curve of the effect of temperature on production (or growth).
Burke et al. test this using regressions and find that there does indeed appear to be an optimal annual average temperature across countries. This is quite consistent across rich and poor countries as well as in different time periods.
Please state and briefly explain two channels through which climate change may have adverse
impacts on poverty rates.
This question draws on Hallegatte & Rozenberg (2017).
Hallegatte & Rozenberg (2017) discuss five channels. The student should state and briefly explain at least two of these five channels:
Agricultural productivity and prices: Many poor people are farmers, and a reduction in agricultural productivity or an increase in the input price may increase the number of poor
people.
Food prices: Poor people are also consumers of food items, and reduced agricultural productivity
can lead to increased food prices, which leads to lower real wages, thus increasing poverty.
Natural disasters: Climate change can increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters.
The impact on the poverty rate depends on the extent to which those who are near the poverty
line live in disaster-prone areas
Labour productivity: Increased temperatures reduce labour productivity. This reduces real
wages, and can in this way increase the poverty rate.
Health impacts: Climate change can affect health through several channels including malarial
incidence, stunting and diarrheal disease. These impacts lead to increased treatment costs as
well as a drop in labor supply.
