CONCLUSION Bayesian Life Flashcards
What should you do if you think you’ve found a theory of everything?
Diagnose yourself with mania and check yourself into a psychiatric hospital.
What percentage of emails sent in the world are potentially spam?
Between 35 and 70 percent.
What is the prior probability in the context of a spam filter?
The prior probability is the assumption about the percentage of spam emails.
How does a spam filter update its probability assessment?
It updates using new information about the content of emails.
What is the phrase that a spam filter might associate with higher spam probability?
Penis extension.
What did Fred Hoyle compare the chances of evolution successfully producing life to?
A whirlwind passing through a junkyard and creating a Boeing 747.
Is evolution a random process?
No, evolution is not random; it is guided by natural selection.
What does Price’s equation describe?
How the frequency of a characteristic in a population changes based on relative fitness.
What happens to copies of a gene that enhance an organism’s survival?
They tend to make more copies and survive to the next generation.
What is a genome seen as in the context of Bayesian reasoning?
A prediction about the world.
What does the frequency of a gene in a population represent?
A prior probability.
What influences the updating of a gene’s likelihood in evolution?
The survival and reproduction of organisms carrying that gene.
True or False: Confirmation bias is always irrational.
False.
What influences the trustworthiness of information from different political parties?
Prior probabilities associated with those parties.
How do peer reviewers judge scientific papers differently based on the authors?
They are more likely to accept papers from Nobel-winning authors than novices.
Who said, ‘All models are wrong, but some are useful’?
George Box.
What do our mental models of the world contain?
Both quotidian and abstract concepts.
What is prediction error?
The discrepancy between expected and actual outcomes.
How does the brain process predictions?
By making predictions and updating them based on new information.
What is a ‘flow state’?
A state where predictions are high-precision and come true consistently.
Why do older people become more set in their ways?
They have a richer, more precise model of the world and require more information to shift their beliefs.
What does the Bayesian framework suggest about consciousness?
It provides a perspective on how we experience the world as predictions.
Fill in the blank: Evolution works to minimize _______.
Prediction error.
What does the Bayesian process describe in decision-making?
The optimal way to integrate new information with prior best guesses.
What is the Bayesian framework in relation to consciousness?
It allows us to think of our experience of the world as our predictions of the world, our Bayesian prior.
How does science relate to the Bayesian model of perception?
Science is about making predictions and testing them, while the Bayesian model is explicitly subjective.
What is a probability estimate in the Bayesian context?
It is my best guess of the world, given the information I have.
What is the significance of prior probabilities in Bayesian reasoning?
They are subjective estimates that help us assess how likely a hypothesis is true based on new data.
What does the phrase ‘the map is not the territory’ imply in relation to Bayesian models?
It implies that our mental models of the world may be incorrect, but the real world exists.
What do philosophers of science struggle with regarding knowledge?
They deal with epistemology and the uncertainty of knowing anything for certain.
What is the process of updating beliefs in Bayesian terms?
As new evidence comes in, we adjust our confidence in a hypothesis without reaching total certainty.
How does Bayesian reasoning help in evaluating skill versus luck?
It allows us to upgrade our confidence in someone’s skill based on their successful outcomes.
What is a practical application of Bayesian thinking in everyday life?
Thinking in terms of confidence levels rather than binary true/false beliefs.
Fill in the blank: Bayesianism helps us think in terms of _______ rather than right and wrong.
confidence levels
How does Bayesianism help in discussions about terms like ‘cancel culture’?
It allows for focusing on predictions about future outcomes rather than arguing over definitions.
What does the author suggest about arguments in the real world?
Many arguments are about labeling phenomena rather than making substantial predictions.
How do humans function as ‘prediction machines’?
We constantly make predictions at various levels to navigate the world.
Who is specifically acknowledged for their help in understanding Bayes’ theorem?
Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of statistics at the Open University.
What is the role of subjective estimates in Bayesian science?
They help in determining how confident we are in hypotheses based on prior knowledge.
True or False: Bayesian models of perception claim that all models are equally valid.
False
What happens to our probability distribution when we see counterexamples?
It becomes less likely that our initial hypothesis is true, prompting a reevaluation.
Fill in the blank: The Bayesian model emphasizes _______ rather than absolute certainty.
uncertainty
What is the significance of the phrase ‘making predictions and updating them’ in Bayesian reasoning?
It highlights the iterative process of refining our understanding based on new evidence.
