Common Probability Distributions Flashcards
probability distribution
describes the probabilities of all the possible outcomes for a random variable.
discrete random variable
number of possible outcomes can be counted, and for each possible outcome, there is a measurable and positive probability.
example number of days it will rain in a given month, because there is a countable number of possible outcomes, ranging from zero to the number of days in the month.
continuous random variable
the number of possible outcomes is infinite, even if lower and upper bounds exist.
ex actual amount of rainfall
discrete uniform random variable
probabilities for all possible outcomes for a discrete random variable are equal.
binomial random variable
number of “successes” in a given number of trials, whereby the outcome can be either “success” or “failure.”
Bernoulli random variable
binomial random variable for which the number of trials is 1
node
Each of the possible values along a binomial tree
univariate distributions
distribution of a single random variable
multivariate distribution
multivariate distribution
standard normal distribution
normal distribution that has been standardized so that it has a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 1.To standardize an observation from a given normal distribution, the z-value of the observation must be calculated.
Monte Carlo simulation
repeated generation of one or more risk factors that affect security values, in order to generate a distribution of security values. For each of the risk factors, the analyst must specify the parameters of the probability distribution that the risk factor is assumed to follow. A computer is then used to generate random values for each risk factor based on its assumed probability distributions.
Simple random sampling
selecting a sample in such a way that each item or person in the population being studied has the same likelihood of being included in the sample
systematic sampling
selecting every nth member from a population.
Sampling error
difference between a sample statistic (the mean, variance, or standard deviation of the sample) and its corresponding population parameter
Stratified random sampling
uses a classification system to separate the population into smaller groups based on one or more distinguishing characteristics. From each subgroup, or stratum, a random sample is taken and the results are pooled. The size of the samples from each stratum is based on the size of the stratum relative to the population.
Time-series data
observations taken over a period of time at specific and equally spaced time intervals.
Cross-sectional data
sample of observations taken at a single point in time
Longitudinal data
observations over time of multiple characteristics of the same entity, such as unemployment, inflation, and GDP growth rates for a country over 10 years.
Panel data
observations over time of the same characteristic for multiple entities, such as debt/equity ratios for 20 companies over the most recent 24 quarters