Cognitive Biases Flashcards
Define overconfidence bias
The false assumption that one is superior to others based on their own sense of skill, talent, or self-belief
Define self serving bias
The propensity to attribute positive outcomes to skill, and negative outcomes to bad luck
Define herd mentality
The propensity to follow what authority figures or popular people are doing - for example, investors often invest in what famous investors invest in
Define loss aversion
The tendency to fear loss more than focus on gain - most people think losing 100 dollars hurts more than it feels good to gain 200 dollars
Define framing bias
Making decisions based on the way information is presented instead of based on the facts
Define narrative fallacy
When someone chooses a less desirable outcome due to the fact they have a better story behind them
Define anchoring bias
The idea that we use pre-existing data as a reference point for all subsequent data. If we saw an $80 dollar product and then a $20 dollar product, we would think the $20 one is cheap. If we first found the product for $5, both other options would seem very expensive.
Define confirmation bias (This is the most important one)
The idea that people seek out information that confirms their ideas, and reject information that opposes them
Define hindsight bias
When people predict a correct outcome, they attribute it to their own skills and that they “knew it all along”
Define representativeness Heuristic
A bias that happens when people falsely believe that if two objects are similar, they are correlated even if it’s not the case
How does confirmation bias affect software engineering?
Developers tend to perform unit tests that make their program work instead of seeking ways to break their code
Describe the Backfire Effect
The Backfire Effect occurs when people’s established beliefs become stronger in the face of contradictory evidence
How does the Backfire Effect affect software engineering?
Developers become attached to certain ideologies/ideas and become resistant to opposing viewpoints. Example: Steve hates Agile because he is not a software engineer and grew up in the “good old days” where plan driven development was the standard: now that Steve believes that plan driven is the best, any evidence supporting Agile, Scrum or other methodologies will be rejected and affirm his beliefs that plan driven is the best.
Define Survivorship bias
The logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not. Example: Fighter planes are reinforced in areas they are most commonly hit: wings, fuselage, tail, etc. However, they did not reinforce the most critical point of the plane, the engines, because planes hit in the engine crashed and did not return to the airfield for inspection.
Define Selection bias
The selection of individuals for analysis in such a way that a proper randomized, representative group is not achieved
