Cognitive Bias Flashcards
An error that comes from focusing only on surviving examples, causing is to misjudge situation. For instance, we might think that being an entrepreneur is easy because we haven’t heard of those all who failed.
Survivorship Bias
The probability of one person adopting a belief increases based on the number of people who hold that belief. This is a powerful form of groupthink and is the reason why meetings are often unproductive.
Bandwagon Effect
When you choose something you tend to feel positive about it, even if that choice has flaws. Like how you think your dog is awesome—even if it bites people once in a while.
Choice-supportive bias
People are over-reliant on the first piece of information they hear. In a salary negotiation, whoever makes the first offer establishes a range of reasonable possibilities in each persons mind.
Anchoring Bias
This is the tendency to see patterns in random events. It is key to various gambling fallacies, like the idea that red is more or less likely to turn up on a roulette table after a string of reds.
Clustering Illusion
Allowing our expectations to influence how we perforce the world. An experiment involving a football game between students from two universities shoes that one team saw the opposing team commit more infractions.
Selective Perception
Some of us are too confident in our abilities, and this causes us to take greater risks in our daily lives. Experts are more prone to this bias than laypeople, since they are more convinced that they are right.
Overconfidence
People overestimate the importance of information that is available to them. A person might argue that smoking is not unhealthy because they know someone who lived to 100 and smoked three packs a day.
Availability Heuristic
Failing to reconsider your own cognitive biases is a bias in itself. People notice cognitive and motivational biases much more in others than in themselves.
Blind-spot bias
Expecting a group or person to have certain qualities without having real information about the person. It allows us to quickly identify strangers as friends or enemies, but people tend to overuse and abuse if.
Stereotyping
Judging a decision based on the outcome—rather than how exactly the decision was made in the moment. Just because you won a lot in Vegas doesn’t mean gambling your money was a smart decision.
Outcome Bias
The tendency to seek information when it does not affect action. More information is not always better. With less information, people can often make more accurate predictions.
Information Bias
When simply believing that something will have a certain effect on you caused it to have that effect. In medicine, people given fake pills often experience the same physiological effects as people given the real thing.
Placebo Effect
Where people favor prior evidence over new evidence or information that has emerged. People were slow to accept the Earth was round because they maintained their earlier understanding that the planet was flat.
Conservatism Bias
When a proponent of innovation tends to overvalue its usefulness and undervalue its limitations.
Pro-innovation Bias
The tendency to weigh the latest information more heavily than older data. Investors often think the market will always look the way it looks today and make unwise decisions.
Recency