Climate Change Impacts- Is Climate Change Really Dangerous Flashcards
Pentagon report 2004
“Climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy.. the threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism
Types of inpact
Flooding- sea level and rain
Agriculture and forestry (more CO2 can make crops grow more, but they wont grow more if there’s no rain- effects agriculture differently)
Health - weather effects everyone, winter = grey, sad
Ecosystems
Economics
Health links
Social wellbeing - dont like cloudy damp conditions
Humidity- natural cooling system (sweating) wet-bulb temperature need to be below our body temperature, as above this we aren’t able to cool ourselves natural
Extreme weather eg storms, ecosystems (corals- tourism)
Warmer conditions = more salmonella, pathogens
Fishery, crops, indirectly impacts - lack of food
Current health impact
WHO estimates that climate change may already be causing 150,000 deaths per year and these risks are expected to increase
August 2003 heat wave
Maximum daily temperature 36 degrees for around 9 days
An estimated 30-50 thousand related deaths in Europe
Mean temps were 5 degrees above 1988-2003 climatological average
Peak mortality 2,200
No harvesting (young and old die first) effects- effects everyone
By 2100, this would be considered a cool summer
People will adapt, but it will cost and change people’s lifestyles
Predicted heatwave changes 2080
Heat wave duration index- defined as maximum period of at leat 5 consecutive days with max temps higher by at least 5 degrees than climatological norm for same calendar day
Expected to increase
Future UK burden of heat waves
25% change there will be a heatwave which kills 3000 in next 10 years
Small compared to 20,000 deaths a year from cold
Good for UK- warming of winter
14.5 increase in salmonella poisoning
Water quality and mental Heath issues associated with flooding
Air pollution- oxford street most polluted
UV exposure- 5000 extra cases of skin cancer, 2000 cataracts per year by 2050
Reduce winter air pollution deaths (50%) increase summer deaths
Small reissue from malaria, ticks, Lyme disease
Malaria predictions 2080
Will increase most in countries where they aren’t good at controlling it
Will decrease in some areas due to lack of moisture
Economics of climate change 2005
Lords- science of climate change was uncertain so no economic case to consider
Government disagreed
Lorn stern commissioned to produce a review in 2006
Discount rate
Converts future economic impacts into their present day value
High = future damage cheaper to fix, low = act now
Stern concluded discount rate of climate change was lost - cost of climate change damage in the future is much higher than cost of mitigating (preventing/reducing) climate change now
Cost of mitigation
Cost of cutting emission consistent with a 500ppm CO2e stabilisation trajectory is 1% (+- 3%) of GDP in 2050
Strong mitigation is fully consistent with the aspiration for growth and development in poor and rich countries, business as usual is not
Costs will not be unevenly distrusted
Competitiveness impacts can be reduced by working together
New markets will be created
Investment in low-carbon electricity sources could be over $500bn a year by 2050
Stern’s conclusions
The cost of mitigation of climate change is about 1% of global GDP per year
Unabated climate change impacts could cost up to 20% of global GDP
Hence, we should immediately invest 1% of world economic activity to reduce the impact of global warming- failure to do so could risk future economic damages equivalent to a reduction of up to 20% in global GDP
Action is urgent- delay means greater risks and higher costs
IPCC (2014)- global economic impacts from climate change are difficult to estimate
