Classes 1-4 Flashcards
Year of publication of Malthus’s Principle of population.
1798
Positive checks in Malthus
Famines, diseases, wars (resettle to equilibrium)
Preventive checks
Birth control & cultural norms
Best evidence for Malthusian model
England 1280-1600
Busts in Malthusian model
Tech shift effects on income
Better land use
Modest growth rate not accounted for
According to Maddison (2007)
Incomes rose 30% 1500-1700
Because of EMP + mortality patterns
Post black death women’s increased share in the pastoral sector
Avoided 25-40% births (with EMP+mortality patterns)
Voigtlander & Voth talk about the three horsemen of riches
- Great cities (in pre modern times).
- War.
- Pestilence.
4 side malthusian cycle
Income grows
Fertility grows
Large population push resources down.
This creates low fertility/population shrinkage.
This will raise incomes and so on and so on.
Elements of a good model
- It is clear
- It predicts accurately
- Improves communication
New orthodoxy in Ind Rev says:
- It was a gradual transition.
- Dramatic break from Malthusian era.
- Economic Growth despite population growth.
Standard of living debate
Division between optimists and pessimists.
There have been improvements in the measuring of (ind rev)
- Real wages
- Inequality
- Changes in welfare not measured by income
Counterfactual perspective (Crafts & Mills, 2022)
Annual rate of pop growth from 0.4% to 1.5%
Exogenous increase in fertility(more illegitimate births, lower age at marriage)+ decrease in mortality. Annual pop increase >1.
Role of Tech
“Basic innovations”
+
Process innovation of practitioners.
(Mokyr,1990).
Innovations created spillover effects.
