Class 7

Question 1

Bounded Rationality

Answer 1

Limited thinking capacities, the information available to us, and limited time

Question 2

Satisficing

Answer 2

Choosing the most acceptable solution to a problem rather than an optimal one

Question 3

PADIL

Answer 3

A Problem solving framework (Problem, Alternatives, Decide, Implement, Learn)

Question 4

Systemic approach

Answer 4

In organizations, there are elements “hanging together” like a system because they continually affect each other over time

Question 5

Brainstorming

Answer 5

A group sit face to face around a table with a flip chart or whiteboard. No criticism/judgements. All alternatives are recorded for later discussion.

Question 6

Problem with brainstorming

Answer 6

People aren’t able to defer judgement and don’t offer creative solutions

Question 7

Brainwriting/nominal group technique

Answer 7

Generate ideas on their own, record them but not share. Participants’ ideas are shared anonymously. People can then build upon them.

Question 8

Equifinality

Answer 8

Part of Decide on a solution. A condition in which different initial conditions lead to similar effects.

Question 9

Weighted ranking table

Answer 9

Assigning a weight based on importance and then attributing a score, to get a more accurate rating.

Question 10

Devil’s Advocate

Answer 10

To provide critique of the proposal

Question 11

Learn and seek Feedback

Answer 11

Examine whether the decision was truly successful and continues to be the right solution.

Question 12

Intuition

Answer 12

Represents decisions that are nonconscious and based on thoughts and preferences come to mind quickly.
Common for intuition to be influenced by unconscious biases

Question 13

Fundamental attribution error

Answer 13

We often over-attribute others’ behaviour to internal rather than external causes.

Ex: Arriving late without offering an explanation. (Judging the character with a lack of concern for external factors)

Question 14

Self-Serving Bias

Answer 14

We often attribute personal successes to internal causes and personal failures to external causes.

Ex: when getting an A, attribute your success to hard work; when getting a D, attribute your failure to confusing professors

Question 15

Availability bias

Answer 15

Interpret readily available information as being more important or as occurring more frequently.

E.g., There are fewer homicides than suicides, but we tend to think the opposite.

Question 16

Representativeness bias

Answer 16

Pay more attention to descriptors we believe to be more representative than the key base rate information (e.g., MBA student writing poetry must be fine arts major in undergrad and will go for an arts management job)
(Includes Gambler’s Fallacy and Hasty Generalization Fallacy)

Ex: Let’s say you’re going to a concert with your friend Sarah. She also invited her two friends, John and Adam, whom you’ve never met before. You know that one is a mathematician, while the other is a musician.

When you finally meet Sarah’s friends, you notice that John wears glasses and is a bit shy, while Adam is more outgoing and dressed in a band T-shirt and ripped jeans. Without asking, you assume that John must be the mathematician and Adam must be the musician.

Question 17

Gambler’s Fallacy

Answer 17

Misconceptions of chance.

Ex: flipped 5 heads in a row so you are “due” to get tails on the next one… They are all statistically independent.

Question 18

Anchoring and Adjustment Bias

Answer 18

The tendency to provide estimates based on the initial starting estimate, regardless of its accuracy.

E.g., Earrings you saw is $100, then found a necklace for $75, still over budget but you bought it

Question 19

Confirmation Bias

Answer 19

Tendency to collect evidence that supports rather than disproves our intuition.

E.g., only search information supporting your hypothesis that playing memory games delay memory loss.

Question 20

Overconfidence bias

Answer 20

The belief that we posses some unique trait or ability that allows us to defy odds.

E.g., stock market professionals were not more accurate in predicting stock performance than lay people

Question 21

Escalation of commitment

Answer 21

A tendency to continue to invest additional resources in failing courses of action even though no foreseeable payoff is evident.

E.g., spent $950 on an old car and continue to invest $1500 for other repairs even though the money spent is irrelevant to the cost of new repairs

Question 22

What are 3 ways to over coming judgement Biases?

Answer 22

Confidence estimates, Trial and error calibration, Healthy skepticism

Question 23

Confidence estimates

Answer 23

State estimates in intervals rather than as a single point estimate

E.g., 14-22 on time pizza delivery rather than 18

Address overconfidence bias

Question 24

Trial and error calibration

Answer 24

Improve your success rate and reduce your failure tomorrow, you must learn from your successes and failures today

E.g., weather forecast, adjust meteorological model

Address confirmation bias (keep track both confirming and disconfirming evidence)

Question 25

Healthy skepticism

Answer 25

Seek out negative or disconfirming evidence.
Address escalation of commitment (how will I know if I am wrong? Construct definition of failure), representative bias (what is the base rate), anchoring bias (do not jump to conclusion), availability and representative bias (do not base your conclusion only on your own experience)

Question 26

Underlying Assumptions

Answer 26

Logical link that fills the gap between the evidence and the claim

Ex:
Claim: John Molson is a bad teacher
Evidence: His class average is 60%
Underlying assumptions possible: Assumption A: 60% is a bad grade
Assumption B: A bad teacher gives bad grades

Question 27

Reality Assumptions. How to challenge?

Answer 27

Our belief about the way things are.

Ex:
Claim: Students are more knowledgeable today
Evidence: More than 80% of Canadians have access to the internet at home
Assumption: Using the internet helps students to become knowledgeable

To challenge: Show the author’s notions of reality are debatable/wrong

Question 28

Value Assumptions. How to challenge?

Answer 28

Our ideals, our standards of right and wrong, our beliefs about how things should be.

Ex:
Claim: Canada goose should be boycotted
Evidence: Canada Goose kills coyotes to make fur-lined hoods
Assumption: Killing coyotes/animal cruelty is immoral

To challenge: Demonstrate the author’s argument is rooted in a particular set of value assumptions

Question 29

Causal Claims

Answer 29

Certain events or factors (causes) are responsible for bringing about events or situations (effects).

Ex: Sales of frozen foods are falling because consumers are increasingly concerned about high salt content in their foods (causal claim).
Concern for salt content (cause)
Falling sales (effect)

Question 30

Rival Causes

Answer 30

Other causes that could account for the same effect

Question 31

Reverse Causation

Answer 31

Flip the cause-effect relationship

Cause-effect: Job performance leads to job satisfaction

Reverse causation: Job satisfaction leads to job performance