Claims Flashcards
What is a descriptive claim?
Example?
About the way the world is (can be observed/measured)
There are 13 000 students in UBC first year
What is a causal claim?
Example?
Statement with expected/implied relationship between two claims. (Change on one changes the other)
The US has more gun murders per capital than Canada because the US has more strict gun laws
What is a descriptive question?
Example?
What is the world like/what happens/observed
What percentage of wealth do the richest 20% of Canadians own
What is a causal question?
Example?
Asks about the relationship between two variables with a causal implication, they are about the effect one has on another (CAUSE)
Why do Honda civics have more dents on their bumpers?
What is a normative/prescriptive question?
Example?
What should happen? (Needs value on the outcome)
Should taxes on the rich in canada be raised?
What is an empirical question?
Example?
A question that can be answered by an observation of the world
Do I have a fever?
What is a normative/prescriptive claim?
Example?
A claim on the way things should be
Women should have free menstrual products
What is an empirical claim?
Example?
A statement that can only either be true or false
It will rain tomorrow
In a causal claim you change one variable what will happen to the other?
Example?
The other will change too
The floor is sticky because someone spilled pop on it
(If you dont spill pop the floor won’t be sticky)
Why are empirical and perscriptive claims/questions different?
Example?
Perscriptive needs value judgement
What are some examples of causal verbs?
make, cause, allow, help, have, enable, keep, hold, let, force, and require
What is a a counterfactual?
Example?
Every causal statement has an associated counterfactual statement, not necessarily the logical opposite.
The us invasion of Iraq caused isis to form (casual statement)
If the us never invaded Iraq isis would not have formed (counterfactual statement)
Formula: if c had not happened than e would not have happened
Can prescriptive questions be answered only by empirical findings?
No, because it needs a value judgement in addition to empirical
What is a triggering event?
What needs to be in place for a triggering event?
Generates an outcome only in combination with other structural causes
Highly substitutable
If the counterfactual does not satisfy you, what does that make the event?
Example?
Triggering event
The assasination of archduke Ferdinand caused ww1 (not satisfying there must have been more to it aka structural causes)
What is a necessary condition?
Example?
Condition c must happen for outcome e to emerge (but just because c happens does not guarantee e, just that it CAN)
For war to happen between two superpowers there needs to be accidental escalation. (Necessary condition for war)
What is conjunctural causation?
Outcome e only happens with a combination of causes
A+B=C
What is multiple necessary conditions?
Example?
It is conjuntural causation where all the conditions must be met for the outcome to happen.
A plant needs water AND sunlight to grow (just having one will not make the plant grow)
What is a conditional effect?
Example?
Effect of cause c on e depends on on cause d. The thing doesn’t need to be there it just enhances/changes the situation.
1 cm of plant growth when it doesn’t rain, but 2 cm of plant growth when it rains.
What is a sufficient condition?
Example?
Cause that ALWAYS produces effect
Fire always creates heat
What is multiple causes?
Example?
More than one set of causes that produce the same effect. A can cause E and B can cause E.
A spark can cause a flame, a magnifying glass can cause a flame
A=C
B=C
Can multiple and conjugal causation combine?
Example?
Yes, different recipes can make the same outcome. A+B=E, C+D=E
Milk+sugar=caramel
Condensed milk=caramel
What is a deterministic casual claim?
Example?
What must or cannot happen as a result of the particular conditions
Because your gay you can’t have sex with women
What is a probabilistic causal claim?
Example?
Claim that makes an outcome more or less likely to occur
Eating before swimming make sit more likely for a stomach ache.
What is the difference/importance of structural causes vs individual choices, what matters more? What do we (tend to) focus on more? Why?
Structural matters more, we tend to focus on individual choices more. Individual narratives are easier to follow and tend to be more compelling.
Why are most social science claims probabilistic?
Because there’s almost always a counter example or randomness. True extremes are rare.
What is the most common claim (probabilistic or deterministic) in social science? Why? What’s the difference?
Probabilistic. Because of randomness and counter examples. Probablilisic just make a claim more/less likely, deterministic is very cut and dry, what can or cannot happen, no room for shades of grey.
What is epiphenomenal?
incidental
What is motivated reasoning?
People want to satisfy their own goals when gathering/interpreting info (want to reinforce prior beliefs)
Why do partisan citizens see facts so differently?
Motivated reasoning
Why do causal mechanisms matter?
They tell us how, suggest other causes of the same effect, we can make better predictive models, helps with prescription (can’t change C but can manipulate e1, e2 etc)
What is an explanatory model?
Something used to test hypothesis within a dataset
Why is x causing y
What is a prediction model?
Anything used to predict the future
What is x’s association with y
What is inductive?
Derived purely from the data
What is a causal chain?
Why do we use it?
What else do they include?
C = e1 + e2 +e3 +e4 = E
Assumptions are needed to follow the chain
What is causal logic
Why one variable causes another set of statements
Why cause produces effect
Is predictive accuracy enough to ensure validity of a hypothesis
No, remember counterfactuals. The why must be satisfying
What are political scientists more concerned with? Explanatory or predictive models?
Explanatory
What are specific causal claims?
Claims that only pertain to a specific case
What are general causal claims?
They are used to explain phenomena
How can you use specific causal claims to explain general causal claims
Build a case ABC pertain to CDF
When we talk about specific events what makes them deterministic or probabilistic?
Wether the event would have happened without them or if they just enhanced it
What are the three “bad” basis for claims?
Claim from authority
Claim from common sense
Claim from personal experience
What is a claim from authority?
What’s wrong with it?
a claim that is “true” because a person of authority said it
Expertise tends to be domain specific, expertise is no guarantee of being right, authorities have agendas, too easy to cherry-pick with who agrees with you, authorities can disagree
What is a claim from common sense?
What’s wrong with this claim?
Arguing a claim is true because “everyone knows” or it’s just “common sense”
People have cognitive biases (both learned and inherent) meaning common sense =/= reality, different people have different common sense, majority is not always right (bandwagon etc)
What is a claim from personal experience?
What is wrong with this claim?
A claim based on personal experience (non systematic) or own reaction to events
We generalize quickly based on small numbers, our exposure might be skewed, we observe environment selective (see what we want to see)
What is a scientifically based claim?
Uses transparent procedures at all stages, systematic use of evidence, tests hunches against alternatives, acknowledges uncertainty
(Science is a collective activity and job of community is to vet these claims, looking critically, peer review etc)
What is a stereotype?
Just common sense arguements
Benefits of a scientifically based claim?
Allows community to:
Replicate others works
Build on each other’s works
Gradually root out error to get closer to the right answer
Distinct clear way to produce valid knowledge
What is a conspiracy theory?
Why do they begin?
Reasoned explanations of events that seem otherwise unintelligible or improbable
Pattern recognition where there is no pattern - reading too much into things
What elements do conspiracy theories tend to have?
Reliance on interpretation of patterns
Emphasis on esoteric (hidden hand) explanations
Extremely resistant to contrary evidence
Often false (but not always)
Can be from anywhere idealogically
What is esoteric?
Between the lines
Is evidence to support a conspiracy theory systematic or non systematic? What kinds does it include?
Non systematic, anecdotes and claims from authority
What is conspiracism? Example?
It’s a conspiracy theory that doesn’t explain anything - instead just tears down other things
Trump actually had more people turn out at his inauguration than in history the media just hid it and altered photos
What is the difference between scientific and conspiracy claims?
Systematic gathering of evidence, skepticism, open to new things, under constant review, find evidence then make claim
Non systematic gathering of evidence, not open to new ideas, make claim then find evidence
Difference between conspiracy theory and conspiricism?
Conspiracy theory seeks to explain
Conspiricism seeks to undermine institutions
There is some overlap between the two
What is normative bias?
Tendency to assume anything going against the established norm is not true/appropriate
What is a theory?
A systematic explanation for the observations that relate to a particular aspect of life
Theories simplify reality
Explicit statement of cause and effect with clear casual mechanisms
If x happens then y will
What is deduction?
A logic model where specific explanations are developed based on general principles
A pattern ought to exist
What is a public good? Example?
Things we like but cant be divided based on an exclusive basis
Lighthouse
What is inductive theory?
Logic model where general principles are developed from specific observations
Why patterns exist
What is a hypothesis? What does it imply?
Something that bought to be observed in the real world if it is true
It implies comparison of how independent variable changes dependant
What are ideologues?
Relative abstract far reaching conceptual dimensions as yardstick to measure values
Ideology is most important
What are near idealougues
Mentioned politics but didn’t place much emphasis or didn’t display understanding of what they were saying
Group interest is?
Making choices based on what group they see party representing
Nature of times is?
Some policy considerations based on incumbent or state of economy
No issue content is
No shred of policy significance
In social science is there a clear divide on inductive and deductive reasoning? Why?
No, its rather on where the emphasis is placed
Because there are always assumptions or observations
