Chapter Six (N&T) Uses of Survey Research Flashcards
What is the most important use of polling in a campaign?
The most important use is using the polling as a planning tool.
How do campaign operatives use polling?
Campaign operatives use polling to help make key decisions throughout the race. They use polling to hone the message, broadly define the targeting, and make adjustments to resource allocation.
What does data analytics do?
It looks for meaningful patterns in campaigns by gathering data across multiple channels (marketing, lifestyle, campaign contact) and seeks to use that information to better target and reach voters.
What was the Literary Digest fiasco in 1936?
Predicted the election of Alf Landon over FDR based on a postcard survey of its readers. They had previously been successful in straw polls since the 1916 election and sent out 10 million postcards and got 2.4 million responses. But Landon only won two states and the magazine was dead in two years. They had totally missed the mark because they overrepresented wealthy voters than the overall groups of people. It was not a representative random sample of voters.
What was the infamous event of the Gallup polls?
They had predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in the 1948 presidential contest. The prediction was based on a survey done by Gallup three weeks prior to voting day. The problem with this is that a lot can happen in three weeks. It might have been right at the time it was taken but the results were overtaken by events during that last three week period.
What are the four elements of willing a campaign?
Candidate quality, a focused message, enough money, and a strong grass roots organization
Why is it important to have a focused message?
The need for a focused message is that campaigns never know when voters are going to pay attention to the race. When swing voters tune in it is because they heard your strong message.
why is it important to have a strong grassroots organization?
Old-fashioned voter contact is crucial in close races. Polling and micro-targeting play a key role in the “ground war,” aka grassroots operations. Both polling and micro-targeting are used in the ground war to more efficiently develop the troops of volunteers who both carry the message directly to voters.
Why do campaigns poll?
Good polling helps a campaign spend the rest of its resources most intelligently. It boils down to delivering the right message to the right target groups.
what are the two questions that campaigns are revolved around?
Nearly every decision in a campaign revolves around or both of these questions:
WHAT is our message? What does the campaign say to voters to attract the needed percentage for victory.
WHO are our target groups? Polling is done to define the campaign’s target audience.
What are the main eight uses of polling in a campaign?
measure the mood of the electorate, confirm issues and measure intensity, measure name identification and message, test potential themes and messages, determine impact and intensity of vulnerabilities, chart movement during the race, determine the impact of major hits on the campaign, establish credibility
why is it important to measure the mood of the electorate?
Helps determine the message of the campaign: what is the political environment, and how does it impact the campaign? Is there a mood for change? Is the electorate angry, and if so, is that frustration aimed at one party or both?
why is it important to measure the issues and intensity of those issues?
issue questions are important for measuring: overall attitudes toward top priorities, intensity, wording nuances and key target groups for those issues.
why is it important to measure name identification and photo?
the opening moves in a race usually depend on whether the candidate is unknown, well-known, known but not well-defined, or polarizing. If the candidate is unknown than the first step is to introduce the candidate to the voter in order to build their name ID and favorable image. If the candidate is well-known it is helpful to ask open ended questions about the candidate.
Why track the movement of the candidate throughout the race?
when the battle is joined, it is imperative to track the race. It is important to know how much movement there is, which direction the movement is going and among what target groups the campaign is gaining or losing ground, so that assessments can be made about how to allocate remaining message and dollar resources.
