Chapter 7: Risk and Return Flashcards
Risk
The probability that an investor will be negatively influenced by the deviations of the actual performance from expected return on investment.
2 Broad Categories of Risk
- Systematic risk
- Non-systematic risk
Systematic Risk
All risks that are the result of changes in the total economy and which subsequently influence all enterprises and investments (although not to the same extent).
5 Systematic risks
- Interest rate risk
- Cyclical risk
- Inflation risk
- Exchange Rate risk
- Market risk
Interest rate risk
The probability that changes in interest rates may have a negative effect on the return of an investment.
If interest rates should increase, what should happen to the price of shares
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Explain the inverse interest-rate-to-price relationship in the case of Fixed income securities
- Since the FIS have a fixed coupon rate, increases in interest rates will mean that investors can obtain higher returns on similar investments in the market
- The price of the FIS will come under pressure, since investors will sell the securities and buy new FIS with higher coupon rates
If interest rates decrease, the opposite can be observed: an increase in the demand for the FIS will cause the price to increase.
2 Explanations for inverse relationship between the interest rate and share price
- A difference exists between the risk exposure of a share investment and a fixed deposit. Investors may therefore decide to invest their funds in the safer investment option (fixed deposit) if the return (interest rate) is high enough.
- An increase in interest rates results in higher finance costs for investors that use debt capital to finance their investments. If the return on the share investment is not high enough to compensate for the increase in interest rates, investors will sell their shares, resulting in decreasing prices.
Cyclical risk
The probability that returns will be negatively influenced by changes in the economic cycle.
3 Methods for reducing cyclical risk
- Diversification over time
- Diversification between different types of investments
- Timing
4 Approaches to hedge against inflation
- International diversification
- Balanced diversified portfolio
- Timing
- Inflation linked securities
Exchange rate risk
The uncertainty regarding returns for investors that are exposed to foreign securities.
3 Approaches to protect against exchange rate risk
- Exchange rate cover
- Thorough analysis of company
- International diversification
Exchange rate cover
If investors are expecting investment revenue in another currency it is possible to obtain exchange rate cover (at a cost) from a financial institution.
Market risk
The probability that the market price of an investment will differ from its intrinsic value due to irrational investor behavior.