Chapter 6: The Economic Determinants of Democracy and Dictatorship Flashcards
Classic Modernization Theory
Countries are more likely to become and stay democratic as they develop economically.
States move from being immature (“traditional”) to mature (“modern”)
What is one criticism of the Classic Modernization Theory?
That it lacks a strong causal mechanism linking national income with democracy.
What does Classic Modernization Theory argue about regime type?
That as states move from being immature (traditional) to mature (modern), it needs to change to a more approriate type of government.
Lipset on Modernization Theory
Democracy will be more lilely to survive in economically developet countries
The Survival Story
Increasing income promotes the survival of democracy, but it does not affect whether a country becomes democratic in the first place
Przeworski on Modernization Theory
The decision to choose democracy or dictatorship depends on the types of outcomes that citizens expect democracy/dictatorship to produce for them
A variant of Modernization Theory
Changes in the socioeconomic structure of a country leads to economic development, which promotes democracy
On the sizes of a society’s economic sectors
Early stages of development: large agricultural sectors and small manufacturing/service sectors
The mobility of assets
Mobile assets = strong exit options possessed by economic elites
Immobile assets = not credible exit options
Credible commitment problem
Decisions made according to short-term incentives undermine long-term policy goals
When do credible commitment problems occur?
When (a) am actor who makes a promise today may have an incentive to renege on that promise in the future and (b) power is in the hands of the actor who makes the promise.
How will the economic elite act if the state is autonomous (does not rely on tax from citizens)?
If they have immobile assets, they will continue to invest.
If they have mobile assets, they will choose to disinvest in the economy.
When will democracy (limited government) emerge?
Only when the state depends on its economic elite who has credible exit options
Do citizens need to fear state predation?
Not if the state depends on a segment of society with mobile assets
Political Resource Curse
Countries that depend on revenue from natural resources will find it difficult to democratize
The Demand and Supply side of the Political Resource Curse
Demand: Resource revenue reduce the citizens demand for democratic reform and government responsiveness to that demand
Supply: Resource revenue enable dictators to resist pressure to democratize and help them consolidate their hold on power
The Policial Resource Curse on the survival of democracy
1) Institutions that hold the government accountable already exist
2) It will prevent governments from spending natural resource revenue on patronage and coercion
The Foreign Aid Curse
While foreign aid makes governments less dependent on their citizens, it makes them more dependent on their foreign aid donors
Foreign Aid and Influence
If the aid donor has strategic interests in the recipient country, threats to withhold aid are not credible
If the aid donor has credible exist threats, they can exert influence on the recipient
Will foreign aid lead to the emergence of democracy?
Only when 1) the recipient country is dependent on the foreign aid, 2) the aid donor wants to promote democratic reform in the recipient country, and 3) the aid donor can credibly threaten to withdraw aid if its demands are not met
Dietrich and Wright on foreign aid
Foreign aid tends to increase de jure political competition, but not de facto political competition
The effect of inequality on democracy
Inequality produces competition between the rich and poor; the poor will want to redistribute wealth; the economic elite will step in to block attempts at democratization
The mobility of assets’ effect on economic inequality
Mobile assets (credible exit threats) = the economic elite will want to stop democratization
Immobile assets (no credible exit threats) = elites accept democracy because they can curn demands of distribution
How does the mobility of assets and the governments dependence on its citizens affect eonomic performance?
Government dependent on citizens with credible exit threats = strong and growing economy
The citizens have no exit threats = continue investing, weak but growng economy
Government is autonomous and citizens have credible exit threats = dictatorial gov. with stagnant economy
