CHAPTER 6: Industry & Competitive Analysis Flashcards
USES OF INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
- Understanding a company’s business & business environment
- Identifying Active Equity Investment Opportunities
- Overweight industries expected to perform well (Tailwinds)
- Sector Rotation (RRGs) & Value Migration - Portfolio Performance Attribution
TOP-DOWN & BOTTOM-UP ANALYSIS
Looking downstream
TOP DOWN: Inverted Pyramid: EIC
BOTTOM UP: Pyramid: CIE
COMPANY ANALYSIS: PAST & PRESENT
Company Analysis: Past and Present:
- Determine business model
- Analyze revenue and revenue drivers
- Analyze operating profitability and working capital
- Analyze capital investment structure (uses of capital and sources of financing)
INDUSTRY & COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
Industry and Competitive Analysis:
- Define industry
- Analyze size, growth and character, profitability, market share trends
- Analyze industry structure and external influences
- Evaluate company’s competitive strategy and positioning and determine if company has a competitive advantage
COMPANY ANALYSIS (FORECASTING):
Company Analysis (Forecasting):
- Determine forecast objects and approaches
- Forecast revenue
- Forecast operating profitability and working capital
- Forecast capital investments and capital structure
- Evaluate key risks and uncertaintie
WHY ANALYZE AN INDUSTRY?
- SIMILARITY IN BUSINESS MODELS: Companies share demand, supply, and risks.
- MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR: Industry is the MOST IMPORTANT factor in the sustainability of economic profit.
- GROWING INDUSTRY COMPANIES PERFORM BETTER: An average company in a growing industry may perform better than a good company in a dying industry
- IMPROVE FORECASTS: Better earnings forecasts; without broader perspectives, analysts may underestimate competitive forces & overestimate degree to which a company controls its destiny
- IDENTIFY INV. OPPORTUNITIES:
INDUSTRY & COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS STEPS
DISEC
D - Define Industry
Use third-party classification schemes
Judge similar/substitute products
Consider multidivisional companies
Account for geography
I - Industry Survey
Market Share
Market Growth Rate
Size
Profitability
Trends
S - Structure Analysis
Porter’s Five Forces analysis
Determine most important factors
Identify what to monitor
E - External Influences (PESTLE)
Political
Economic
Social
Technological
Legal
Environmental
C - Competitive Analysis (SCC)
Evaluate firm’s competitive strategy
Consider industry context
Determine competitive advantage
APPROACHES FOR IDENTIFYING SIMILAR COMPANIES
Companies are grouped:
- Based on PRODUCTS &/or SERVICES
- Based on their RELATIVE SENSITIVITY TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE
Defensives, Semi-Cyclicals & Cyclicals
A). A Cyclical Company is one whose profits are strongly correlated w the strength of the overall economy (eg: auto & tech)
B). Non Cyclicals are those whose performance is mostly independent of the business cycle (eg: Healthcare & Utilities)
Non-Cyclical companies are at times further labeled as GROWTH OR DEFENSIVE
- Cyclical/Non-Cyclical is a spectrum (some very sensitive whereas others not sensitive at all)
- Growth/Defensive labels may be misleading
- Different regions might be at different stages of the business cycle
- Based on STATISTICAL SIMILARITIES
- Companies with high correlations are grouped together (sectors that go up & down together)
- High correlations might be because of chance
INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS
When conducting an industry analysis, a well-designed classification system is a useful starting point
Analysts can compare industry trends & relative valuation amongst companies
Classification systems provided by:
- Commercial Entities
- Government Entities
LIMITATIONS:
1. Groupings of companies w biz-model variations or that sell substitute products
2. Classification of multi-product companies
3. Geographical considerations
4. Changes in groupings over time that affect price-period comparability of industry stats
COMMERCIAL INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION OVER GOVT. INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION
because more frequently updated
BASIS:
1. Geography: Developed, Emerging & Frontier Markets
2. Sensitivity to Business Cycle (Cyclicality):
Defensives: STABLE EARNINGS
Cyclicals: SPORADIC EARNINGS
3. Statistical Similarities: companies w highly correlated returns grouped together
4. ESG Characteristics: carbon emissions:revenues; board & exec. personnel diversity & exposure to certain business viz. tobacco & gambling
SCP: STRUCTURE CONDUCT PERFORMANCE
MOST WIDELY USED COMMERCIAL INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION SCHEMES
Major index providers classify their EQUITY INDICES into INDUSTRY GROUPINGS
- Global Industry Classification Standards (GICS) by MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital Intl) & S&P Dow Jones Indices: Primary Biz Activities for revenue (4 TIER)
- Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB) by FTSE Russell (Financial Times Stock Exchange): SOURCE for MAJORITY of revenue (4 TIER)
- The Refinitiv Business Classification (TRBC) by Refinitiv
Global Industry Classification Standards (GICS)
Developed by MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) & S&P Dow Jones Indices
4-tier structure to classify companies based on company’s PRIMARY BUSINESS ACTIVITY measured by REVENUE
11 Sectors
25 Industry Groups
74 Industries
163 Sub-Industries
GICS Sectors:
Mnemonic: MICE FUR CHIS
- Materials
- IT
- Consumer Discretionary
- Energy
- Financials
- Utilities
- Real Estate
- Communication Services
- Healthcare
- Industrials
- Staples/Consumer Staples
INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION BENCHMARK (ICB)
Developed by Dow Jones & FTSE
4-tier structure to classify companies based on the SOURCE from which company derives MOST of its revenue
11 Industries
20 Supersectors
45 Sectors
173 Subsectors
ICB Industries:
- Energy
- Financials
- basic Materials
- IT
- Industrials
- Telecommunications
- Consumer Discretionary
- Utilities
- Consumer Staples
- Real Estate
- Healthcare
TRBC by Refinitiv
5 TIER STRUCTURE
14 Economic Sectors
33 Business Sectors
62 Industry Groups
154 Industries
898 Activities
GICS vs ICB DIFFERENCES
Both similar:
in no. of tiers (4)
&
method by which companies are assigned to particular groups (primary business activity vs source for most revenue)
But, use DIFFERENT NOMENCLATURE
The 2 systems can classify the same company v differently
eg: PAYPAL
GICS: IT>Software & Services>IT Services>Data Processing & Outsourced Services
ICB: Industrials>Industrial Goods & Services>Support Services>Financial Administration
CONSTRUCTING A PEER GROUP
A Peer Group is a group of companies engaged in similar biz activities whose ECONOMICS & VALUATION are influenced by closely related factors
Constructing a peer group is a subjective process:
- Commercial Classification Systems can be used as a starting point
- Investigate these companies further
- Confirm that each comparable company derives a significant % of revenue from a biz activity similar to the primary biz of the subject company
A company could belong to more than 1 peer group. eg: HP could be in PC industry & IT services industry
DESCRIBING & ANALYZING AN INDUSTRY & PRINCIPLES OF STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
- Analyze industry performance in relation to other industries & over time. (i1, i2, i3 over 10 years): Time-series analysis
- Identify industries that offer highest potential risk-adjusted returns
- Economic fundamentals & hence economic profits can vary substantially across industries (because of CYCLICALITY)
PORTER’S 5 FORCES (P5F)
HORIZONTAL FORCES:
- Bargaining Power of Buyer/Customer
- Bargaining Power of Supplier
VERTICAL FORCES:
- Threat of New Entrants
- Threat of Substitutes
CENTER:
MARKET RIVALRY: Internal Competitive Forces
- Industry Concentration
- Industry Capacity
- Market Share Stability
- Price Competition
- Industry Lifecycle
EXTERNAL INFLUENCES:
- Macroeconomic
- Social
- Governmental
- Demographic
- Technological
BARRIERS TO ENTRY IN P5F
High Barriers to Entry=
Discourage New Entrants=
Higher Pricing Power
Do not confuse barriers to entry with barriers to success
High Barriers to entry do not automatically lead to high pricing power.
This might happen if:
1. Price is a large % of customer’s purchase decision (Price-Sensitive Customers)
2. Apart from barriers to entry, barriers to exit is also high (eg: Auto Industry; Toyoto or Honda can’t get out the auto industry)
INDUSTRY CONCENTRATION in MKT. RIVALRY OF P5F
In concentrated industries, each player generally has high pricing power
- Fortunes tied with the industry and more to gain by keeping prices high even though cutting prices might increase market share.
In segmented industries, each player generally has low pricing power
- More to gain by undercutting competition in an effort to gain market share
- Do not automatically assume that high conc. leads to high pricing power
CONC. & FRAGMENTED INDUSTRIES W STRONG & WEAK PRICING POWER
CONCENTRATED:
- Strong PP: Coke/Pepsi (Soft Drinks)
- Weak PP: Capital Intensive & sell commodity products eg: Boeing, Airbus (commercial aircrafts)
FRAGMENTED:
- Strong PP: AMCs viz. Fidelity
and Home Improvement (Home Depot)
- Weak PP: Consumer packaged goods, Airlines & Retail
INDUSTRY CAPACITY in MKT. RIVALRY OF P5F
Tight or Ltd. Capacity= High PP
Consider current capacity & future capacity needs
Physical capital takes a relatively long time to establish
Quicker to shift financial & human capital to new uses
MARKET SHARE STABILITY in MKT. RIVALRY OF P5F
Impacted by barriers to entry, switching costs & new product introductions
Stable Market Share indicates less competitive industries
PRICE COMPETITION in MKT. RIVALRY OF P5F
If price is a major factor in customer buying decisions, price competition will be high
Price-Sensitive Users
LIFE CYCLE STAGES (DEMAND VS TIME)
- EMBRYONIC: slow growth, high prices, significant investment, high risk
- GROWTH: rapidly increasing demand, falling prices, low competition
- SHAKEOUT: slowing growth, intense competition, declining profitability
- MATURE: little or no growth, industry consolidation, high barriers to entry
- DECLINE: negative growth, excess capacity & high competition
New Industries tend to be MORE COMPETITIVE
Is the company acting its age?
eg: Reinvesting or giving back dividends?
LIMITATIONS OF INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
All companies don’t complete all steps of the lifecycle
Regulations not accounted
EXTERNAL INFLUENCES P5F
Macroeconomic Factors
Technology
Demographic Factors (negative WACC in countries w ageing population)
Governments
Social Influences
Environmental Influencescc
COMPANY ANALYSIS
Analyze a company’s financial position, products &/or services & competitive strategy
2 MAJOR STRATEGIES:
1. Cost Leadership
2. Differentiation
3. Focus
Value
II opportunity (incentive to BUY): PULL
Price
II margins (incentive to SELL): PUSH
Cost
PRICING: Cost-Plus or Value-based
ELEMENTS TO BE COVERED IN A COMPANY ANALYSIS
Company Profile
Industry Characteristics
Demand Analysis for products/services
Supply Analysis for products/services
Pricing Analysis
Financial Ratios & Measures
Which of the following info about a company would most likely depend on an industry analysis? The company’s:
A. Dividend Distribution Policy
B. Competitive Environment
C. Trends in Personnel Expenses
B.
A & C are company specific
SPREADSHEET MODELLING
Spreadsheet modelling of financial statements helps to analyze & forecast revenues, operating & net income & cash flows
A widely used tool in company analysis, that can quantify effects of changes in variables in various financial statements
An array of assumptions are used in this tool
Which of the following is the least likely to be a method for grouping companies?
A. Statistical approaches that assess past correlations of securities’ returns
B. Similarity of products and services
C. Similarity of operating profit margins
C is correct. Profit margins are not used as a method for grouping companies.
Companies with similar profit margins may have little in common.
A is incorrect because it describes the statistical similarities approach, which is a method for grouping companies.
B is incorrect because similarity of products and services is one of the most common ways of grouping companies.
Companies are classified as cyclical or non-cyclical (defensive) on the basis of the exposure of their business to:
A. Their industry life cycle
B. The business cycle of the economy
C. The credit cycle, which affects their ability to borrow
B is correct. The cyclical/non-cyclical grouping reflects companies’ sensitivity to the economy’s business cycle.
A is incorrect because the industry life cycle describes how the industry evolves over time, not how it relates to economic fluctuations.
C is incorrect because the credit cycle explains the availability and cost of credit, not the fluctuations of output of the economy to which cyclical or non-cyclical companies are exposed.
Which of the following companies is most likely to have the greatest ability to quickly increase its capacity?
A. Legal Services Provider
B. Manufacturing company producing heavy machinery
C. Company operating cargo ships
A.
Capacity increases in providing legal services wouldn’t require significant fixed capital investments.
B & C are incorrect because the companies would require capital investments & capacity expansion would take time to implement.
External Influences: Which of the following industries is most affected by government regulation?
A. Oil Services
B. Pharmaceuticals
C. Confections & Candy
B.
Pharma has the highest amount of govt. & regulatory influences
Which of the following industries is least affected by technological innovation?
A. Oil Services
B. Pharmaceuticals
C. Confections & Candy
C.
Which of the following statements about industry characteristics is least accurate?
A. Manufacturing capacity has little effect on pricing in the confections/candy industry.
B. The branded pharmaceutical industry is considered to be defensive rather than a growth industry.
C. With respect to the worldwide market, the oil services industry has a high level of concentration with a limited number of service providers.
C is correct; it is a false statement. From a worldwide perspective, the industry is considered fragmented. Although a small number of companies provide the full range of services, competition by many smaller players occurs in niche areas. In addition, national oil service companies control significant market share in their home countries.
Company A is a mining company with operations in several countries.
Company B is a technology company providing video conferencing services.
Company C is a consumer company, an apparel producer, with facilities in a number of Latin American and Asian countries.
Which of the companies belongs to an industry most likely to be affected by environmental factors that analysts should evaluate?
A Company A
B Company B
C Company C
A
Which of the following statements best describes social influences that should be considered in evaluating the Consumer Goods industry?
Statement 1 Supply chain management, selling practices, and product labeling
Statement 2 Access and affordability, pricing policy
Statement 3 Impact of the industry on the environment
Statement 1: Correct!
- Transparent Supply Chain
- Good Selling Practices
- Honest & Ethical Product Labeling
2 & 3 describe characteristics that’re not social
Which of the following describes one of the ways governments influence large companies that produce and offer services relating to heating, air conditioning, and lighting systems?
A Purchasing goods and services
B Determining availability of credit
C Providing raw materials
A.
Governments are major buyers of goods & services
B- incorrect because govts don’t normally provide credit to the industry
C- incorrect because the pvt sector provides raw materials to customers
A. Purchasing goods and services
Explanation:
Governments buy products and services for public projects.
Directly influences demand for company offerings.
Supports industry growth and stability.
1 An analyst makes the following statement:
“Analysis of a company’s supply includes examination of labor relations; sources of and access to raw materials, including concentration of suppliers; and analysis of the company’s production capacity.”
The statement is:
A. Correct.
B. Incorrect because the analysis of supply should also include analysis of the stage in the product life cycle.
C. Incorrect because the analysis of supply should consider the product’s differentiating characteristics.
A.
The challenge with using spreadsheet forecasting models stems from the fact that:
A. The analyst may have a false sense of understanding the business.
B. Spreadsheet models cannot be used to compare companies with their peer groups.
C. Spreadsheet models require precise inputs.
A.
DEFENSIVES vs CYCLICALS & MATURE vs GROWTH
GROWTH
Defensives: biotech, software & gaming
Cyclicals: semiconductors, fintech & digital ads
MATURE
Defensives: utilities, beverages, pharmaceuticals
Cyclicals: crude oil, natural gas & freight transportation
ROIC: Industry Profitability Measure
VALUE CREATION METRIC: creates or destroyed value
AGNOSTIC TO CAPITAL STRUCTURE
TIME SERIES ROIC IS BETTER
ROIC= NOPAT Or EBIAT/EQUITY+DEBT+MINORITY INTEREST
DOESN’T CONSIDER FINANCIAL RISK
MARKET SHARE TRENDS & MAJOR PLAYERS
Market shares are measured by expressing the industry participant’s annual revenues as percentages of industry’s size each year
HERFINDAHL-HIRSCHMAN INDEX (HHI) measures industry concentration
Calculated by squaring the market share of each firm competing in a market and then summing the resulting numbers. High numbers indicate high concentration and vice versa.
HHI of a market composed of 4 firms with shares of 30,30,20,20 is 30^2+30^2-20^2+20^2= 2600.
Max HHI for monopoly= 100^2: 10,000
>2500: highly concentrated
1500-2500: moderately concentrated
Acquisitions in highly concentrated markets that increase HHI by >200 pts are frequently subject to regulatory challenges.
INDUSTRY SALES GROWTH if correlated to GDP Growth, then industry is:
CYCLICAL
Fiscal vs Monetary Policy
FISCAL POLICY: government spending & tax rates
MONETARY POLICY: interest rates & money supply
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING: An analyst should assess a company’s competitive positioning along 3 dimensions:
Does the strategy:
- Create MOAT/defence against P5F
- benefit or lose from external PESTLE influences?
- Does the company have RESOURCES & CAPABILITIES to successfully EXECUTE said strategy
COST LEADERSHIP: MEANS OF EXECUTION
- Economies of scale from fixed costs
- Favourable access to raw materials
- Culture of strict cost control
- Aggressive pricing to gain high volume
- Low-cost distribution
- Economies of scope
DIFFERENTIATION: MEANS OF EXECUTION
- Investments in Advertising, Brand, Customer Service, Proprietary Distribution Channels
- Protection using IPR: trademarks, copyrights, patents
- Superior quality, unique features
- Culture of strong customer experience
- Premium Pricing
- Integration of services, software and hardware
FOCUS: MEANS OF EXECUTION
- Proximity to customers and strong understanding of their needs
- May incorporate elements of strategy from both cost leadership & differentiation, but focused on particular group.
COST LEADERSHIP: DEFENDS AGAINST WHICH OF P54?
1 HORIZONTAL+ 1 VERTICAL + CENTRAL
- Threat of new entrants: capital requirements and scale advantages deter new entrants
- Bargaining power of customers: customers can only bring down costs of marginal producer, leaving margins for cost leaders
- Industry Rivalry: rivals may not be able to compete w cost leaders via pricing war