Chapter 6 Flashcards
why do some countries experience rapid population growth, while others see their birth rates drop?
economic development, healthcare access, cultural norms, government policies
what happens when the world’s population keeps growing, especially in developing countries?
resource strain, urbanization, economic struggles, food security
how does population growth in developing countries today affect their ability to improve income, health, education, and overall well-being for both current and future generations?
positive impacts: labor force and market expansion
negative impacts: income inequality, healthcare and education, sustainabilty
What happens when a country’s birth rates drop below the replacement level, leading to more elderly people and fewer younger workers?
aging population, labor shortages, economic challenges, social implications
the problem of population growth is not simply a problem of numbers
it is a problem of human welfare and development
to really understand how the world’s population changes over time, it is useful to look at the
rate of change rather than just the total number of people
by focusing on the rate of population growth, we get a clearer picture of
how quickly the world’s population is changing and how it varies across different regions
the world’s population is very unevenly distributed by
- geographic region
- fertility and mortality trends
- age structure dependency burdens
how can we measure the rate of population growth?
yearly percentage change in population size based on:
- natural growth (birth rate minus death rate)
- net international migration (excess of persons migrating into a country over those who emigrate from that country)
in most developing countries, population growth comes almost entirely from
natural increase - meaning, more people are being born than passing away
fertility rates have generally
declined over time in most countries
modern health efforts, such as vaccinations for diseases like malaria and improvements in clean water, healthcare, nutrition, and education
have significantly lowered death rates
Life expectancy has
improved over time
significant progress has been made in reducing
child mortality rates globally
in high income countries, overall death rates may appear higher, but this is primarily due to
an aging population, not child mortality, since most children survive into adulthood
people in developing countries are generally much
younger than those in wealthier countries
the faster the population grows, the higher the
proportion of dependent children, making it harder for workers to support non-workers
hidden momentum of population growth
implies that even if birth rates fall, a young population can continue to grow for years
high birth rates can’t be changed quickly because
the social, economic, and cultural factors that shape fertility rates take many years to shift
- even if countries prioritize population growth, it will take time to lower birth rates
the age structure in low- and middle-income countries plays a role
- these countries have many young people, so even if future parents have fewer children, the population will still grow because there are more parents
- this growth with continue until younger generations replace older ones, and then population growth will slow down and eventually level off as the number of parents and children balances out
population pyramid
represents the age and gender distribution of a population
- it is called a pyramid because in many cases it forms a triangular shape with wide base representing a large number of young people and a narrower top reflecting fewer old people
low income countries population pyramid
fewer people survive to old age, lots of young people
middle income countries population pyramid
similar to low income
high income countries population pyramid
fewer young people, more old people, predicts a long-term population decline
what is a demogrpahic transition
the process by which fertility rate eventually decline to low and stable level
three stages of modern population history
- before modernization, birth and death rates were both high, so populations grew very slowly
- marks the beginning of the demographic transition, there are improvements in public health, diet, and income which reduced death rates, but birth rates stayed high, leading to rapid population growth
- happens when birth rates also start to decline, eventually balancing out with the low death rates, resulting in little or no population growth
some countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, still have
very high fertility rates
key questions: When can we expect developing nations to see a significant drop in birth dates that leads to a stable and sustainable population? First, what causes high fertility rates in developing countries and can these factors be influenced by government policies
to answer this, we have to look at the Malthusian population trap and the household theory of fertility
the Malthusian Population Trap
- Thomas Malthus developed a theory about population growth and economic development
- Malthus suggested that population grows geometrically (doubling every 30-40 years), while food production grows arithmetically
- over time, less land for each person leads to diminishing returns, meaning people produce less food
- as food supply can’t keep up with population growth, incomes drop, leaving people barely surviving at subsistence levels
- Malthus believed the only way to avoid widespread poverty was for people to practice moral restraint and have fewer children
criticisms of the Malthusian Model
- the Malthusian model overlooks the impact of technological progress
- while Malthus was right about land being limited, he couldn’t foresee how technology would improve land productivity - the model assumes population growth rates are tied to per capita income, however, research shows no clear link between the two
- birth rates don’t follow a strict pattern based on income levels, and countries with similar incomes can have very different fertility rates
- what truly matters more for population growth is how income is distributed at the household level, not the overall national income - the model focus on the wrong variable, per capita income, as the main determinant of population growth rates
- a better approach looks at the individual family’s decision making, where personal living conditions, not national income, determine how many children a family decides to have
the household theory of fertility
- economists examine the microeconomic factors that influence family size to explain why birth rates fall during the third stage of the demographic transition
- in this theory, children are seen as a special type of good –> families make decisions about having children similarly to how they make economic choices
the household theory of fertility: the demand for surviving children depends on several factors
- household income (Y)
- families with more income can afford to have more children, so the number of children they want may increase with higher income - net price of children
- this is the overall cost of raising children which includes: direct costs –> food, clothing, education; opportunity cost –> the value of what a parent, especially a mother, could be doing instead of raising children, such as working
- it also considers benefits of having children, such as: potential child income and support in old age
- if the costs out weight the benefits, families may choose to have fewer children - price of goods
- families also consider the cost of other goods they want to buy
- if other goods are more expensive, they might choose to spend their money on children instead of those goods - tastes for goods relative to children
- this refers to the family’s personal preferences
- if a family values having children more than buying other goods, they will likely have more children, and vice versa
demand for children equation
Cd=f(Y, Pc,Px,tx), x=1,…, n
Cd = demand for surviving children
Y = household income level
Pc = Net price of children
Px = price of all other gods
tx = tastes for goods relative to children
in poor societies, children are often seen as investments
families decide how many children to have based on their income, costs of raising children, and expected benefits like labor or support in old age
son preference
- in some cultures, especially in south and east Asia, families prefer sons due to social expectations, economic benefits, and the costs associated with daughters (like dowries)
- this often leads to higher birth rates as families may keep trying for a boy
lowering fertility rates in developing countries depends on
social and economic progress that benefits everyone, especially the poor
important factors that lower fertility include
- improved education and status for women
- s women become more educated and gain employment, they tend
to have fewer children, prioritizing quality over quantity - higher family incomes or redistributing wealth from rich to poor
- reduced infant mortality through better healthcare and nutrition
- social security systems that reduce parents’ reliance on children
for old-age support - better schooling, encouraging parents to focus on child quality
over quantity
Is rapid population growth the major cause of poverty and limited opportunities in developing countries?
- for years, economists and social scientists have debated the impact of rapid population growth
- although, it is not sole cause of poverty and limited opportunities in developing countries, it can worsen these problems
consequences of high fertility
- the real problem is not population growth but underdevelopment, population distribution and subordination of women
- population growth is a desirable phenomenon
- extremist arguments: population and global crisis
- theoretical arguments: population poverty cycle
- empirical arguments
the real problem is not population growth but underdevelopment
- the real problem is poverty and lack of education, once development improves living standards, population growth will naturally decline
- development should be the only goal
the real problem is not population but population distribution
- the issue isn’t the number of people, but where they are concentrated
- better distribution of people in relation to resources would ease population pressures
the real problem is not population growth but subordination of women
- one of the most crucial factors is the lack of opportunities for women
- high fertility rates are driven by limited access to education, economic opportunities, and birth control
- empowering women through education and economic opportunities can significantly reduce population growth
population growth is a desirable phenomenon
- population growth stimulates economic development by increasing consumer demand, achieving economies of scale, and providing affordable labor
- more people are needed to cultivate the rural arable land
- military power is dependent on youthful population
extremist arguments: population and global crisis
- population growth is seen as the root cause of many of the world’s economic and social problems, including poverty, malnutrition, ill, health, and environmental degradation
- some extreme measures, like compulsory sterilization, have been suggested to control family size in densely populated countries such as India and Bangladesh
theoretical arguments: population-poverty cycle
- population growth worsens economic, social, and psychological issues
- it reduces savings at both household and national levels, hindering prospects for a better life
- government resources are strained, extending poverty across generations
- while economic and social development can encourage smaller family sizes, family-planning programs are essential to provide the means for limiting births
empirical arguments
- poverty and inequality: evidence at household levels
- adverse impact on education
- adverse impact on health
- food issues
- impact on the environment
- international migration
goals and objectives toward a consensus: despite the widely diverging and conflicting opinions, there is some common ground on the following
- population growth is not the main cause of poverty, inequality, or limited freedom in developing nations; the root issues lie in poverty, especially for women, and poor development policies
2 the population problem is about quality of life and resource distribution, not just numbers - high population growth rates are not the main cause of underdevelopment, but they still play a significant role in some countries and regions
what steps can developing countries take?
- use education and media campaigns to encourage smaller family sizes
- implement family planning programs
- raise the socioeconomic status of women
- increase employment opportunities for women
how can developed countries help developing countries with their population programs?
- fund research into fertility control technologies such as contraceptive pills, IUDs, and voluntary sterilization
- financial assistance for family planning programs
