Chapter 5 Flashcards
Does the Gov’t have a target rate of Eco growth, what is it
Gov’t does not have a specific ‘target’ rate of eco growth to achieve – but the government outlines board objectives to promote an economic climate conducive (beneficial) of high levels of sustainable and employment growth
Sustainability is underpinned by 3 important considerations that place an upper limit on any growth rate
The growth rate can not be so high that it:
Causes inflation to climb to unacceptable levels (above the RBA’s target range 2-3% over an economic cycle)
Results in significant external pressures on the economy (mainly an excessive CAD or net foreign debt)
Leads to an over use of the nations natural resources (unfairly burdens future generations
Where is a sustainable rate considered to be at
3-3.5% growth per year
What is the gov’t goal for strong sustainable growth
The gov’ts goal for strong and sustainable economic growth is to achieve the highest growth rate possible, consistent with strong employment growth, but without running into unacceptable inflationary, external or environmental pressures’
Factors in accessing a growth rate
It is important to remember what is considered to a sustainable rate of growth can vary over time. During periods when productivity growth is strong – it is possible for growth to remain above 4% and be sustainable – this is because the nations productive capacity is being expanded by productivity growth
However if productive growth is slow or if the nation’s capacity is being stretched growth rates below 3% may be unsustainable
The government will also take in to account international growth rates, when determining the acceptability of given growth rates in Aus’t
What is used to measure Eco growth
GDP
Define GDP
The final market value of all goods and services produced in the Australian economy over a given period of time – it is the same as the total ‘value added’ during each stage of the production process and is calculated every quarter by the ABS
Define chain volume GDP (real GDP)
An estimate of the real GDP in the economy – it involves using prices from previous periods and applying them to current period volumes
The
Explain chain volume GDP (real GDP)
The ABS will provide figure for chain volume Gdp in dollar terms for each quarter – the seasonally adjusted and trend figures are based on original figures, but statistically manipulated to ensure they provide a more accurate reflection of the state of the economy (the level of eco activity) during each quarter.
Whenever Gdp figures are reported without reference to whether it is the original, trend or seasonally adjusted figure it is best to assume that the figure being reported is the seasonally adjusted one
Figures of economic growth are rarely reported in absolute dollar terms as they are shown, instead referring to these dollar values to media will typically report movements in % terms
When using real GDP what is the most common form
The annual rate of economic growth is most commonly derived using the real GDP dollar values for the latest quarter and comparing them to the values for the quarter one year earlier, this is also called the – year-on year growth rate
Define annualised rate of Eco growth
The product of multiplying the quarterly rate of economic growth by four
Define annualised
The process of converting a monthly or quarterly figure into one the can be compare to annual figures – e.g. quarterly rate if growth of 1% is multiplied by 4 to provide an Annualised rate of growth of 4% for that quarter
Why does Australia peruse Eco growth
The primary means by which governments can maintain/improve living standards over time.
Growth in production means there has been growth in incomes that accrue to the factors of production such as wages, interest and dividends –
these higher incomes will enable some members of society to have greater ability to purchase g+s that satisfy their needs and wants = having a positive impact on material living standards
Why does Australia peruse Eco growth
- also because of positive relationship between employment growth and its ability to reduce the unemployment explain:
Governments recognize the real costs of unemployment in terms of the potential waste of labour resources
The debilitating affects can be psychological and form unhealthy relationships between unemployment and crime and social unrest
Economic growth will tend to result in a bigger ‘derived demand for labour’ (because the demand stems from a bigger demand for goods and services) and will tend to increase employment levels
In addition high levels of employment will involve a greater sharing (distribution) of income gains from eco growth further contributing to enhanced material living or welfare.
Economic growth can also provide individuals and groups with the opportunity to enjoy an increase in non-material living standards, focusing on more intangible factors that shape our ‘quality of life’ these factors could include – general happiness, freedom of expression, freedom of movement, self esteem, a felling of making a difference to others etc.
This is because higher incomes can provide individuals with a greater opportunity to become more charitable, helping to improve the quality of life enjoyed by others, as well as their own
Stronger rates of eco growth leads to an increase in tax revenue – enabling the federal government to improve the living standards of those less well off, via welfare spending or to improve the issue of the developing world via foreign aid.
Why is the growth rate 3-4%?
The government pursues a relatively strong growth rate to ensure a number of things happen:
The government is keen to ensure the growth rate exceeds the rate of growth in productivity (output per unit of input) over time.
Gov’t and business continue to invest huge amounts on research and development in order to achieve technological progress that helps to boost productivity
However these advances can have negative affects on employment growth – e.g continuing rates of productivity growth in order of 1% means that 1% increase in economic growth is likely to be insufficient to cause an increase in employment (this is sometimes referred to as ‘jobless growth’ – where higher output is achieved via greater productivity of existing inputs negating the need for additional labour inputs
Why is the growth rate 3-4%
- ageing population
The gov’t is keen to ensure the rate of eco growth is sufficient enough to cater for a continually growing population. If real gdp falls below population growth, it will signify that the average Australian is materially worse of than in a previous period
Higher population growth will also increase the size of the labour force over time and make it more difficult for employment growth to have a favorable impact on the employment rate – this is because more new jobs will be taken by new entrants to the labour force, such as skilled migrants forcing rates of economic growth to be higher yet again.
The government wants to see economic growth at a high enough rate to actually boost the overall living standards or welfare of Australians – this means the rate must be higher than the rate of population growth, but not too high to cause a diminution of non material living standards for current or future generations of Australian’s. Therefore greater focus on economic sustainability
Consequences of failing to meet / achieve strong levels and sustained growth
*assuming growth remains positive
Any rate of growth that is positive but below our rate of population growth signals that our nation has experienced a decline in per capita incomes – while the size of the real gdp has expanded and the economy is growing in absolute terms the average income per person has declined and our average material living standards will fall.
We would then expect living standards to deteriorate, but this will depend on the reasons for the relatively slow growth in real gdp – e.g may be possible for living standards to improve in the low growth if the low growth rates are engineered by gov’t policies that are seeking to protect the environment
Any rate of eco growth below the rate of productivity growth is unlikely to create additional employment growth and with a growing labour force, will tend to add to the unemployment rate
Any rate of growth that is fuelled by excessive consumption at the expense of investment is likely to reduce future productive capacity and future growth rates (pcc shift to the left)
Growth may be high enough to push growth outwards, but is unsustainable such that inflation becomes to high, external pressures become burdensome, or it comes at the expense of the environment then it simply transfers the problems to the future
Define sustainable development
development that meets the needs of present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.
Explain what is economic sustainable development?
Today much more emphasis is placed on ‘non material’ or ‘quality of life’ factors when perusing growth with a particular concern for future generations of Australians
Increasingly governments will implement policies that force both public and private sector decision making to take into account any depletion of natural resources or any damage to the environment e.g co2 tax, laws on deforestation etc
Explain the impact too much growth would have on ‘Eco sustainable development’
If growth is too strong it can be considered a failure to meet the objective - it should not:
- jeopardise the governments other Eco goals
[inflation] - demand (increases in AD when operating at productive capacity)
- cost (businesses have to bid up wages to attract scarce workers)
[external stability] - cad increases as imports increase
- jeopardise the living standards of future generations (ecological sustainability)
Further consequences of not meeting goal of stong and sustainable Eco growth
Growth is too high - may come at the expense of a Nations natural resources - falls under the banner of ‘ecological sustainability’
Environmental influences of Australia’s future rates of growth
Are typically adverse weather that cause ‘supply shocks’ to the economy resulting in lower rates of real gdp (and higher unemployment) in the short term.
These disasters have a significant impact on the output in industries as diverse as agriculture, mining, construction and tourism.
Droughts have had a significant affect throughout history affecting particually the agricultural industry
Drought = lack of water reduced the willingness and ability of farmers to maintain production levels. Further grain and cotton production were severely condensed and the high rate of feed added to the cost of production for livestock. Sheep and cattle farmers were forced to reduce stock as the size of the drought affected the land continued to increase, these factors combined to have a negative supply side impact on farmers willingness and ability to produce reducing production, income and employment in rural Aus’t
Environmental influences on Aus future rates of Eco growth
- climate change
The incidence of natural disasters is increasingly linked to climate change
Excessive carbon pollution is resulting in substantial social and economic costs
Large amounts of resources need to be given to the reconstruction efforts often of natural disasters caused by climate change
Given that climate change is expected to reduce rates of economic growth in the long term due to the increased lengths of froughts ans other severs weather events, the dilemma facing governments is related to the need to become ‘inter-temporally efficient’ with the use of the nations resources – to continue to use resources in production without affecting the efforts to minimize or reduce carbon emissions will promote current rates of growth at the expense of future rates of growth
However efforts to combat climate change will impose costs on industries (production costs) have negative affects on eco growth in the immediate medium term
Define peak oil
The point of time when half the worlds oil supplies have been extracted – after this point it generally becomes more difficult and more expensive to extract oil.
Limitations of GDP as a measure of Eco growth + living standards
Gdp is inaccurate in the sense that it excludes some ‘non-marketed’ goods and services where it is too difficult to get accurate values such as home based production, black market goodss or many chartiable activites
Gdp fails to distinguish between monetary transactions that actually improve out welfare (e.g money spent on food) and those which actually detract from our welfare (money spend on tabacco)
Gdp does not measures changes on quality from one quarter to the next
Some non-marketed goods and services have a value imputed for them, such as farm produce consumed on the farm, the rental value of owner occupied housing and most importantly government services provided without charge – the imputed values might not reflect the true ‘market values’
There may be inacracies when converting to real gdp using the chain volume measure – that is the index used to remove the affects of inflation (which comprises a wide number of producer and consumer goods and services) is unlikely to be 100% accurate when accounting for inflation
Gdp figures are largely based on estimates which by there nature will rarely be 100% accurate
Gdp figures do not take into account the value associated with the depletion of the nations stock of natural capital (natural resources) or the costs associated with other negative externalities
Figure do not take in to account the values of ‘leisure time’ that may be sacrificed (or gained) when there are increases (or decreases) in gdp. E.g. increase in real gdp may indicate that living standards have improved – however as a consequence people may be pressured to work longer hours (on average) then living standards may deteriorate.
Gdp fails to take into account the direct affects steaming from movements in the Terms of trade (TOT) e.g. an increase in world mineral prices will boost TOT and will result in higher export prices. This is not reflected in a higher value for real gdp because the price affect is removed and export volumes remain unchanged. Accordingly an increase in the TOT will be reflected in higher national incomes as measured by ‘gross national income’ (GNI) but not in the real gdp. Real GNI more accurately captures changes in living standards as it reflects changes in ‘purchasing power’
Alternate measures of nations welfare and living standards other than GDP
General progress indicator (gpi)
Measure of Australia’s progress (map)
Define the GDI
An indicator of national wellbeing that seeks to overcome difficulties associated with the use of GDP as a measure of overall living standards for a nation. It takes into account a host of other factors not taken into account by GDP estimates, such as the social costs associated with unemployment, crime, problem gambling, excessive work, natural resource depletion and pollution
Explain the GDI
The general progress indicator (GPI):
Like gdp, the gpi starts with a focus on expenditure on goods and services to provide an idea about how our material living standards are likely to have changed over time, it further take into account a range of other factors that the gdp does not factor into it’s estimations including:
Social costs associated with unemployment
Crime
Problem gambling
Excessive work
Natural resources depletion and pollution
In the medium / long term
Limitations of GPI
Li tied as measure adjustments are estimations (inaccurate) highly subjective