Chapter 4 - Statistical Techniques

Question 1

What is the time series analysis (average annual change) formula?

Answer 1

Last figure - first figure / no of changes (NOT YEARS)

Question 2

What is the purpose of time series analysis?

Answer 2

To analysis past and present numerical data trends over a period.

Question 3

what is the linear regression formula?

Answer 3

Y = M x X + C

Y - forecast
M - increase
X - no of time changes
C - starting value

Also shown as Y = A + B x X

Question 4

What’s the definition of long term cycles?

Answer 4

Slow moving variations that may be caused by economic cycles or social trends.

Question 5

What is the formula to seasonal variations?

Answer 5

Y = T + S

Y - actual data
T - trend
S - seasonal variation

Question 6

What does deseasonalised data mean?

Answer 6

Data from which the seasonal variations (trend) have been removed.

Question 7

What is the index calculation?

Answer 7

Forecast price = historical price X (expected/forecast index / historical index)