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FN1 corporate finance > Chapter 4: Financial Statement Analysis and Forecasting > Flashcards

Chapter 4: Financial Statement Analysis and Forecasting Flashcards

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1
Q

What is the DuPont System made up of?

A

It is made up of 3 different ratios 1. Net profit margin (NI/REV), 2. Asset Turnover Ratio (Rev/TA) 3. Leverage TA/SE

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2
Q

Why use the DuPont system

A

it breaks apart the ROE (NI/SE_ in order to get a better idea what affected the numbers. “decompose ROE”

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3
Q

why does the DuPont system provide a good starting point for any financial analysis?

A

shows that financial strength come from many sources. 1. profitability 2. asset utilization 3. leverage

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4
Q

What does financial leverage mean?

A

magnification of both profits and losses

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5
Q

What are the 3 major leverage ratios that relate to financial leverage?

A
  1. stock ratio 2. flow ratio 3. other ratio *******
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6
Q

What do stock ratios indicate

A

the amount of debt outstanding a particular time

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7
Q

What are the stock ratios

A
  1. leverage ratio 2. debt ratio 3. debt to equity ratio
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8
Q

What is the formula for the leverage ratio

A

total assets / shareholder’s equity

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9
Q

what is the formula for debt ratio

A

total liabilities / total assets

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10
Q

What is the formula for debt to equity ratio

A

total debt / se

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11
Q

what does the debt ratio indicate

A

the proportion of total assets financed by debt a the balance sheet date

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12
Q

what does the debt-equity ratio mean

A

the proportion that total debt represents in relationship to SE (both common stock and retained earnings) at the balance sheet date

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13
Q

What are the income statement flow ratios

A
  1. times interest earned (TIE) ratio 2. Cash flow to debt ratio
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14
Q

How do you calculate times interest earned ratio (TIE)

A

EBIT / Interest expense

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15
Q

How do you calculate cash flow to debt ratio

A

cash flow form operations / total debt

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16
Q

what does times interest earned ratio show

A

it shows the number of times the firm’s pre-tax income (EBIT) exceeds its fixed financial obligations to its lenders

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17
Q

What does cash flow to debt ratio show

A

it measures how long it would take to pay off a firm’s debt using cash flow from operations

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18
Q

What are the efficiency ratios

A
  1. degree of total leverage (DTL) 2. break-even point 3. gross profit margin 4. operating margin
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19
Q

what do efficiency ratios measure

A

measure how efficiently a dollar of sales is turned into profits - gives insight into the company’s cost structure - helps to determine if problems exist with either variable or fixed costs

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20
Q

how do you calculate the degree of total leverage (DTL)

A

CM / earnings before taxes

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21
Q

how do you calculate the break-even point

A

fixed costs / CM

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22
Q

How do you calculate gross profit margin

A

Revenue - COS / Revenue

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23
Q

How do you calculate operating margin

A

operating income / revenue

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24
Q

What does degree of total leverage measure

A

measures exposure of profits to changes in sales - the greater the DTL the greater the leverage effect

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25
Q

what does break-even point show

A

it estimates how much you need to sell in order to cover all costs (both fixed costs and variable costs) - usually increases as the use of fixed costs increases

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26
Q

what does gross profit margin show

A

shows the proportion of sales that are available to cover fixed period costs and financing expenses after variable costs have been paid

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27
Q

What does a declining gross profit margin mean

A

it raises concerns about the company’s ability to control variable costs, such as direct materials and labour

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28
Q

what does operating margin measure

A

it measures the cumulative effect of both variable and period costs on the ability of the company to turn sales into operating profits and cover interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA)

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29
Q

What are the productivity ratios

A
  1. receivable turnover ratio 2. average collection period (ACP) 3. inventory turnover ratio 4. average days sale sin inventory (ADSI) 5. fixed asset turnover
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30
Q

what do productivity ratios measure

A

the firm’s ability to generate sales from its assets

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31
Q

excessive investment in assets with little or no increase in sales reduces the rate of return on

A

both assets (ROA) and equity (ROE)

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32
Q

How do you calculate the receiver turnover

A

receiver turnover = Revenue / AR

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33
Q

what does the receivable turnover measure

A

measures the sales generated by every dollar of receivables

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34
Q

how do you calculate average collection period (ACP)

A

average collection period = A/R / Average daily credit sales = 365/ receivable turnover

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35
Q

what does average collection period estimate

A

estimates the number of days it takes a firm to collect on its A/R Example If ACP is 40 days, and the firm’s credit policy is net 30, clearly customers are not paying according to the firm’s policies - There may be concerns about the quality of customer’s credit and wheat might happen if economic conditions deteriorate

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36
Q

what does inventory turnover measure

A

the number of times ending inventory was “turned over” or sold during the year - involves both stocks and flow values - strongly a function of ending inventory

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37
Q

managers often try to improve its inventory turnover ratio as they approach year end through

A

inventory reduction strategies (cash and carry sales, inventory clearance etc)

38
Q

how do you calculate inventory turnover

A

inventory turnover = COGA/ inventory or Rev/ inventory

39
Q

when COGS is not publicly available, the inventory turnover ration can be estimated using what

A

sales(Revenue) instead rev/inventory - not ideal - because while COGS is based on inventoried cost, sales includes a profit margin that may not be comparable to other firms

40
Q

what is ADSI

A

average days sales in inventory

41
Q

what does ADSI estimate

A

the number of days of sales tied up in inventory - based on inventory values

42
Q

how do you calculate ADSI

A

avg. days sales in inventory = inventory / avg. daily sales = 365/ inventory turnover

43
Q

what is fixed asset turnover

A

estimates the number of dollars of sales produced by each dollar of next fixed assets

44
Q

how do you calculate fixed asset turnover

A

fixed asset turnover = sales/net fixed assets

45
Q

what are the liquidity ratios

A
  1. working capital 2. current 3. quick (Acid test)
46
Q

what do liquidity ratios measure

A

the ability of the firm to meet its financial obligations as they mature using liquid (ie cash and near cash resources)

47
Q

what does working capital measure

A

the proportion of total assets invested in current assets

48
Q

how do you calculate working capital

A

current assets / total assets ca/ ta

49
Q

what does the current measure

A

the number of dollars of current assets for each dollar of current liabilities - estimates the capacity of the firm to meet its financial obligations as they mature

50
Q

how do you calculate current ratio

A

current assets / current liabilities ca/ cl

51
Q

what does the quick (Acid test) recognize

A

that inventories and other current assets may be less liquid and in some cases, when liquidated quickly, can result in cash flows that are less than book value - therefore, the quick ratio gives a clearer indication fo the firm’s ability to meet its maturing financial obligations out of very liquid current assets

52
Q

what is the calculation for quick ratio

A

cash + Marketable securities + AR / current liabilities c + MS + AR /CL

53
Q

What is important to note regarding liquidity ratios

A
  • When firms are financially strained and no longer a going concern, accounting values become less valid - Instead, net liquidation values can be estimated by discounting asset values based on their degree of liquidity - Liquid assets are valued at close to or the same as book value - Liquid assets are discounted from book value based on their degree of liquidity - Liabilities are stated in nominal terms, because it takes those dollars to satisfy debt obligations - Preferred stock value is based on residual values, if any residual remains after liquidation
54
Q

What are the valuation ratios

A
  1. Equity book value per share (EVPS) 2. Dividend yield 3. Dividend payout 4. Trailing Price –earnings (P/E) 5. Forward P/E 6. Market-to-book 7. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) multiple
55
Q

what are valuation ratios used for?

A
  • are used to assess how the market is valuing the firm (ie its share price) in relation to its o assets o earnings o profits o dividends
56
Q

what does equity book value per share (EVPS) show

A

expresses shareholder’s equity on a per share basis

57
Q

how do you calculate equity book value per share

A

book value per share = shareholder’s equity / number of shares

58
Q

what does the dividend yield express

A

the dividend payout as a proportion of the current share price

59
Q

dividend yield can be compared to what

A

the yield on other investment instruments such as  Bonds or  The stocks of other dividend paying companies

60
Q

how do you calculate dividend yield

A

dividend per share / price per share DPS / P

61
Q

what is the price-earnings (P/E) ratio

A

o An earnings multiple based on the most recent earnings o Often used to estimate the value of a stock

62
Q

how do you calculate the price earnings ratio (P/E ratio)

A

share price / earnings per share P / EPS Example: a stock trading at a P/E multiple of 10 will take 10 years at current earnings to recover its price

63
Q

what is the forward P/E ratio

A

o Is an earnings multiple based on forecast earnings per share o Often used to estimate the value of a stock for companies with rapid growth in EPS

64
Q

Forward P/E: what do Low P/E shares indicate

A

regarded as value stocks

65
Q

Forward P/E : what do high p/e shares indicate

A

regarded as growth stocks

66
Q

how do you calculate the forward P/E

A

share price/ estimated earnings per share P / EEPS

67
Q

what is market to book ratio

A
  • Estimates the dollars of share price per dollar of book value per share - Given historical cost accounting as the basis for BVPS, the degree to which market value per share exceeds BVPS indicates the value that has been added to the company by management
68
Q

how do you calculate Market-to-book value

A

share price / book value per share P / BVPS

69
Q

what is EBITDA multiple

A
  • Expresses total enterprise value (TEV) for each dollar of operating income or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA)
70
Q

how do you calculate EBITDA multiple

A

TEV / EBITDA

71
Q

what is total enterprise value

A

o An estimate of the market value of the firm o Ie. the market value of both its equity and its debt

72
Q
  • Financial managers must produce forecasts of the results of the business plans in order to
A
  1. Determine if the plans will require additional external financing 2. Determine if the plans will produce surplus cash resources that could be distributed to shareholders as dividends 3. Assess financial forecasts to determine if plans are feasible; o If poor results are forecast, management has the opportunity to amend plans in an attempt to produce better results before resources are committed
73
Q

the basis for all financial forecasting is

A

o The sales forecast and o The most recent balance sheet values are the starting point

74
Q
  • Pro Forma (forecast) balance sheets are projected assuming
A

some relationship with projected sales as a constant percentage of sales

75
Q
  • Current liabilities are usually assumed to rise and fall in a
A

constant percentage with sales, and are called spontaneous liabilities because they change without negotiation with creditors

76
Q

Percentage of sales method involves what

A

5 steps

77
Q

what are the 5 steps in the percentage sales method

A
  1. Determine the financial policy variables in which you are interested 2. Set all the non-financial policy variables as a percentage of sales 3. Extrapolate the balance sheet based on a percentage of sales 4. Estimate future retained earnings 5. Modify and re-iterate until the forecast makes sense
78
Q

the percentage sales method process most often results in

A

a balance sheet that does not balance o So a “plug” (or balancing) amount is the external funds required or o The surplus funds forecast

79
Q

Further Improvements to the pro forma balance sheet include

A

Re-examining asset growth assumptions

  1. Refinement of the cash forecast
  2. Realization that EFR can be offset by marketable securities that can be easily liquidated to finance growth needs
  3. Re-examination of assumptions of a/r growth and whether we want to change credit polcies in the context of the forecast macroeconomic and competitive environment
  4. Re-examination of inventory management policies taking into account the macroeconomic and competitive environment
  5. Realization that increases in net fixed assets is “lumpy” and continuously incremental;

If the firm has excess capacity, it may not need to invest any further in fixed assets until it is forecast to exceed that capacity

80
Q

page 12, 13 and part of 14

A
81
Q

additional improvements to foreceast also include

A

re-examining assumptions about growth in spontaneous liabilites

82
Q

page 16

A

ppage 16

83
Q

what is the formula for forecasting

A

We can express the foregoingpercentage of sales method of forecasting using equations rather than spreadsheets

External financing requirements

EFR: EFR = a x S x g –b x PM x (1+g) x S

Where

a = the treasurer’s financial policy variable, the total invested capital or net assets of the firm as a percentage of its sales

g = sales growth rate

S = current period sales

S x g = next period sales

a X S x g = incremental capital requirement

PM = profit margin on sales

B = payout ratio

1 – b = retention or plowback ratio

84
Q

what is the plowback ratio

A

??

85
Q

External financing requirements can also be expressed as

A

a linear function of the sales growth rate (g)

By dividing both sides of equation 4-32 by the current sales level to obtain the next equation

EFR / S = -b x PM + (a-b x PM) g

the equation is plotted

The sustainable growth rate (g*) occurs where the blue line intersects the horizontal axis

The sustainable growth rate (g*) is the sales growth rate at which

The firm neither generates nor needs external financing

It can sustain its own rate of growth through the reinvestment of its own profits

86
Q

what is the formula for sustaninable growth rate

A

** g* = b x PM / a –b x PM**

When g = g*

EFR = 0

The firm can finance its own growth with retained earnings

When g is less than g*

  • EFR is less than 0
  • the firm will have surplus funds available after financing its planned growth
87
Q
A
88
Q

in sustainable growth rate, when g = g

A

EFT = 0

the firm can finance its own growth with redidual earnings

89
Q

with sustainable growth rate, when g is greater than g*

A

EFT is greater than 0

external financing will be required

90
Q

with sustaninable growth rate

when g is less than g*

A

EFT is less than 0

  • the firm wil lhave surplus funds available after financing its planned growth

FN1 corporate finance (44 decks)

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