Chapter 4 Flashcards
Projections
- What-if scenarios
- precursor to actual forecast
- Prepared for internal use
- Assist managers in making decisions regarding products, acquisitions, revenues, expenses etc
Sensitivity Analysis
- process of experimenting with different parameters and assumptions regarding a model and cataloging the range of results to view the possible consequences of a decision
- Use probabilities to approximate reality
- Also called “what-if” analysis
- risk management tool
- test the effect of specific variables on overall profitability
- Used to determine which variables are the most sensitive to change and will have the greatest effect on bottom-line
Drawback: implicit assumption that variables are independent
Scenario Analysis
Different scenario which represent alternative possible outcomes
Find weighted total of scenario
Forecasting Techniques
- Driven by historical data and actual expectation rather than hypothetical scenarios
- Use for both external and internal users
- Either quantitative or qualitative methods
- Qualitative is based on opinions and judgments of managements and other experts
- Quantitative use historical data and are categorized as either time series methods or causal methods
- Time series use past trends to predict future variables
- Causal methods are based on cause-and-effect relationships between variables
Forecasting Analysis
- Extension of Sensitivity Analysis
- Purpose: predicting future values of a dependent variable (one you are trying to explain) using information from previous time periods
- Forecasting Revenues = sales are dependent variable
- Forecasting Expenses = total cost are dependent variable
Regression Analysis
Linear regression is a method for studying the relationship between two or more variables
Used to predict the value of dependent variables
Simple Linear Regression Model
Explains the variation in a dependent variable as a linear function of one or more independent variables
Only one independent variable
Estimated the dependent variables
Most accurate method for classifying an object as either fixed or variable
y = a + Bx
Where:
y = dependent variable
x = independent variable (regressor)
a = y-axis intercept for the regression line
B = slope of regression line
Coefficient of Correlation (r)
- Measures the strength of the linear relationship between the independent variable (x) and dependent variable (y)
- Range of r is from -1.00 to 1.00
- Perfect Positive Correlation (+1.00): dependent and independent variable move together in the same direction
- increase in one is increase in another
- upward slope
- Prefect Inverse Correlation (-1.00): dependent and independent variables move in equivalent opposite directions
- decrease in one is increase in another
- downward slope
- No Correlation (0.00): dependent and independent variables are not related in a linear fashion
- movement in the independent variable cannot be used to predict movement in the dependent variable
- Projecting Total Cost: (dependent variable) when predicting total cost as a function of fixed costs, variable costs and volume (independent variable), management’s expectation of the correlation coefficient is between 0.00 and 1.00
Coefficient of Determination (R^2)
Coefficient of determination is the proportion of the total variation in the dependent variable (y) explained by the independent variable (x)
Between 0 and 1
Higher the R^2, the greater proportion of the total variation in Y that is explained y the variation in x
Higher the R^2, the better the fit of the regression line
Percentage of variation in the dependent variable explained by the variation in the independent variables
High-Low Method
Technique used to estimate the fixed and variable portions of cost, usually production costs
Steps:
- Gather Data
- compare high and low volumes and costs- remove outliers
- Analyze Data
- Divide the difference between the high and low dollar total costs by the difference in the high and low volumes to obtain variable cost per unit
- Use either high volume or low volume to calculate the variable costs
- Subtract the total calculated variable costs from the total cost to obtain the fixed costs
- Formulate Results
- allows for preparation of a flexible/performance budget
Flexible Budget Formula
Results of high-low method
Series of budgets that are prepared for a range of activity levels rather than a single activity
Total Cost = Fixed Costs + (Variable Cost per Unit * Number of Units)
Learning Curve
Analysis based on the premise that as workers become more familiar with a specific task, the per-unit labor hours will decline as experience is gained and production becomes more efficient
Used to set standards and to project costs, as variable costs per unit should decline until a stead-state period is achieved
Once steady state occurs, labor hours per unit will remain constant
Activity must be repetitive in nature, involve intense labor and have little to no labor force turnover or breaks in production
Cumulative average time per unit falls to a fixed percentage of the previous average time
Cost-Volume-Profit (CVP) Analysis
Used by managers to forecast profits at different levels of sales and production volume
Point at which Revenues equals costs = Breakeven Point
aka Breakeven Analysis
Assumptions:
- All costs can be separated into either variable or fixed costs depending on behavior
- Volume is only relevant factor affecting cost
- All costs behavior in a linear fashion in relation to production volume
- Cost behaviors are to remain constant over the relevant range of production b/c assumption that efficiency of production does not change
- Cost show greater variability over time
- Assumes that product mix remains constant
- Direct Costing or Contribution Approach is used -→ No Absorption Approach
- Selling Price Remains Unchanged
Absorption Approach
Required for financial reporting under (GAAP)
Does not segregate fixed and variable costs
Encourages management to reduce inventory
Revenue
Less: COGS
= Gross Margin
Less: Operating Expenses
Equals Net Income
Difference between Contribution Approach is the treatment of fixed factory overhead
All fixed factory OH is treated as a product cost and is included in inventory values
COGS is both variable and fixed
Selling, general, and admin expenses are period costs used in the determination of net income
Reported on income statement separately from COGS
Contribution Approach
aka Variable Costing Method
To the income statement uses variable costing (direct)
Useful for internal decision making
Revenue
Less: Variable Cost
= Contribution Margin
Less: Fixed Costs
= Net Income
Variable costs include direct labor, direct materials, variable manufacturing OH, shipping and packaging, and variable selling expenses
Fixed costs include fixed OH, fixed selling, and most G&A expenses
- Total or Per Unit: revenue, variable costs, and contribution margin may be expressed in total and on per-unit
- Unit Contribution Margin: unit sales price minus the unit variable cost
- Contribution Margin Ratio: contribution margin expressed as a percentage of revenues
Difference between Absorption Approach is the treatment of fixed factory overhead
All fixed factory OH is treated as a period cost and is expenses in the period incurred
Inventory costs only include variable manufacturing costs
Selling, general, and admin expenses are period costs used in the determination of net income
Above are a part of the total variable costs for the contribution margin
Breakeven Point in Units
= Total Fixed Costs
Contribution Margin per Unit
Where Contribution Margin = Selling Price - Variable Cost
Breakeven Point in Dollars using Contribution Margin per Unit
= Unit Price * Breakeven Point (in Units)
Breakeven Point in Dollars using Contribution Margin Ratio
= Total Fixed Costs
Contribution Margin Ratio
Required Sales Volume for Target Profit
pretax profits used
Sales (units) = (Fixed Cost + Pretax Profit)
Contribution Margin Per Unit
Sales Dollars Needed to Obtain a Desired Profit
- Summation of Total Costs & Profits
Sales Dollars = Variable Costs + Fixed Costs + Pretax Profit
- Contribution Margin Ratio
Sales = Fixed Costs + Pretax Profits
Contribution Margin Ratio
Predicting Profits Based on Volume
Profit = Units Above Breakeven Point * Contribution Margin Per Unit
Setting Selling Prices Based on Assumed Volume
Sales Price per Units = (Fixed Costs + Variable Costs + Pretax Profits)
Number of Units Sold
Margin of Safety Concepts
- Sales Dollars
= Total Sales (in $) - Breakeven Sales (in $)
- Percentage
= Margin of Safety in Dollars
Total Sales
Breakeven Charts
Graphically display the results of breakeven analysis
Target Costing (Used for Target Pricing)
concept of target costing uses the selling price of the product to determine the product costs to be allowed
When competition (cost leader) sets prices, any chance in price could easily cause a customer defection
Firs step establishing cost controls to ensure ongoing profitability
Target Cost = Market Price - Required Profit
Implication:
- if management commits to target costs, serious measures must be employed to reduce costs
- firms may sacrifice quality by reducing costs which can cause a loss in sales
- may incur increased down stream costs in attempt to differentiate their produces and create brand loyalty and competitive advantage
- advanced cost management techniques may have to be employed to attain a higher productivity level
- product may have to be redesigned for the reduction of costs throughout the life cycle of a product (Kaizen Method)
Probability (Risk) Analysis
Is an extension of Sensitivity analysis
used to examine the possible outcomes given different alternative
Cost Determination
concept of target costing uses the selling price of the product to determine the product costs to be allowed
Cost-Based Pricing
Associated with:
Price stability
Price justification
Fixed-cost recovery
Weighted Average Contribution Margin Per Unit
Contribution Margin = Selling Price - Variable Cost
Weighted Average Contribution Margin Per Unit = (Contribution Margin * % Sold) + (Contribution Margin * % Sold) + etc
Ratio Analysis
Quick and easy way to evaluate a company’s past, present and future performance and financial standing
Liquidity Ratios
Focus is on current liabilities side of the company’s balance statement
Focus on whether a company will have enough current assets and other funds to pay the liabilities when they are due
Examples:
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Cash Ratio
Operating Cash Flow Ratio
Working Capital Turnover Ratio
Working Capital Ratio
= Current Assets - Current Liabilities
Components come from Balance Sheet