Chapter 24: Valuation of asset classes Flashcards
Required return for:
conventional government bond
risk-free real return
+ expected inflation
+ inflation risk premium
Required return for:
corporate bond
risk-free real return
+ expected inflation
+ corporate bond risk premium
Required return for:
Equity
risk-free real return
+ expected inflation
+ equity risk premium
Required return for:
Property
risk-free real return
+ expected inflation
+ property risk premium
Risk-free real return
The return on an index-linked government bond of an appropriate duration
Corporate bond risk premium
A margin to compensate for
- the risk of default,
- low marketability and liquidity and
- the uncertainty over future inflation.
Equity risk premium
A margin to compensate for:
- the risk of default,
- low marketability and liquidity and
- high volatility of share prices and dividends
Property risk premium
A margin to compensate for:
- the risk of default, void
- low marketability and liquidity
- indivisibility
- depreciation
- obsolescence
- volatility of property prices
Expected return for a conventional government bond
Gross redemption yield
Expected return for a corporate bond
Gross redemption yield
Expected return for an equity
Dividend yield + expected dividend growth
Expected return for a property
rental yield + expected rental growth
When does an asset ‘seem cheap’?
If required return < expected return
Simplifying assumptions when equating expected and required return to derive a fair value
- all investors want a real rate of return
- all investors have the same time horizon
- tax can be ignored
- reinvestment of income occurs at the expected return
Reverse yield gap equation
= gross redemption yield on conventional government bonds - equity dividend yield = Inflation risk premium - equity risk premium \+ expected dividend growth
What can you deduce from the reverse yield gap increasing?
If the assumption about fair pricing is true,
then either:
- the inflation risk premium has increased
- the equity risk premium has decreased
- prospects for equity dividend growth have increased
When would an overseas market seem cheap?
If the expected return in the overseas currency
+ expected depreciation of the domestic currency
> expected return in the domestic currency
Other methods for assessing whether an asset seems cheap or dear
- yield norms
- index levels
- price charts (technical analysis)
- yield ratios
If assets are valued using market values, how would you get a consistent value for the liabilities?
most liabilities are not bought and sold, so a market value does not readily exist.
You could derive a market-related discount rate based on the returns on a set of assets that most closely match the liabilities.