chapter 2 part 2 CAPM and types of risk Flashcards
portfolio effect
an attempt to reduce investing risk by ‘not putting all your eggs into one basket’
holding portfolios of securities
systematic risk
also known as market risk
CANNOT BE ELIMINATED BY DIVERSIFICATION
changes in macroeconomic variables e.g. Recession Interest rates Exchange rates Taxation Inflation changes in taxation
Unsystematic risk
CAN BE ELIMINATED THROUGH DIVERSIFICATION
relates to factors that affect the returns on investments in unique ways (e.g. risk that a particular firms labour force goes on strike)
a diversified portfolio of 15-20 securities will eliminate the vast majority of unsystematic risk
Unsystematic risk
CAN BE ELIMINATED THROUGH DIVERSIFICATION
relates to factors that affect the returns on investments in unique ways (e.g. risk that a particular firms labour force goes on strike)
a diversified portfolio of 15-20 securities will eliminate the vast majority of unsystematic risk
CAPM definition and formula
measures systematic risk of investments and its returns
systematic risk measured as an index, beta (B). beta of a security measures the sensitivity of returns on the security to changes in systematic factors
B=0 is a risk free security
B=1 is average market risk
B>1 investment more affected by changes in macroeconomic variables
formula : rj= rf + Bj ( rm-rf)
rj = required rate of return on investment j
rf=risk free rate of interest
rm=return on market portfolio
Bj= index of systematic risk for security j
(rm-rf) = risk free premium
formula given in exam
note when to do with shares rj = cost of equity capital Ke
aggressive and defensive shares and application of CAPM in project appraisal
aggressive shares - high beta
defensive shares - low beta
buy aggressive shares if bull market (expected to rise)
buy defensive shares is bear market (expected to fall)
CAPM used to set minimum required returns (ie risk adjusted discount rates) for new capital projects
advantage is it clearly shows that the discount rate should be related to a projects risk
Weaknesses of CAPM
- companies shareholders may not be DIVERSIFIED (eg in small company may have invested most funds into one company)
- shareholders not only participants, directors and employees are exposed to risks so may try to diversify
- CAPM depends on perfect capital market
- the need to determine excess return (rm-rf). excess rather than historical should be used, however historical often used in practice.
- the need to determine risk free rate
- errors in statistical analysis used to calculate beta values, betas may change over time
- CAPm unable to accurately forecast returns for companies with low price/earnings ratios and unable to take account of seasonal and day of the week effects on shares
Alternatives to CAPM : Alpha value
seen as a measure of how wrong the CAPM model is. it:
-reflects only temporary, abnormal returns, if capm is a realistic model
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