Chapter 2 - Climate Science & Risks, Impacts & Opportunities

Question 1

The Science of Climate Change

Answer 1

The greenhouse effect -> GHG air molecules allow solar radiation to pass through the atmosphere to warm the Earth’s surface, while at the same time stopping the heat radiation emitted by the Earth from escaping back into space, warms the planet.

Question 2

Greenhouse gases, emissions and atmospheric concentrations - anthropogenic warming

Answer 2

Main GHGs are:
- Water vapour (H2O) (1 - 4 % conc)
- Carbon dioxide (CO2) (drives anthropogenic warming - fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes two thirds of all ghg emissions)
- Methane (CH4)
- Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
N2 and O2 make up more than 95% of the air not part of greenhouse effect

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - IPCC Sixth Assessment (AR6), 1850-1900 to 2020 warming is at 1.1C, unequivocal human influence. 2023 hottest year on record, 1.48C above pre-ind levels (June to Dec faster rate of warming). faster warming since 1970.changes irreversible for centuries to millennia, esp in ocean, ice sheets, global sea level.
Prior to Ind Rev, natural atmospehric conc of CO2 remained around 280ppm for millennia. 417ppm in 2022

Question 3

• some GHGs more effective than others at trapping the Earth’s heat radiation
• GHGs have different lifetimes

Answer 3

Metric of Global Warming Potential (GWP) -> warming impact of one molecule of a gas over a time horizon (20 or 100 years) compared to one molecule of CO2.
Can also express as carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) units - the concentration of CO2 required to cause the same warming effect (multiplying the concentration of a gas by its GWP)

7 GHGs
1. Carbon dioxide (CO2) - fossil fuel combustion, deforestation and industrial processes like producing cement. lifetime in atmospehre varies
2. Methane (CH4) has GWP of 28, fossil fuel combustion, agri and landfills. Lifetime of just udner 12 yrs in atmosphere. Essential to control methane emissions to mitigate human impact on climate. But long term impacts not as extensive as those of CO2
3. Nitrous oxide (N2O) has GWP of 273 -> fertiliser application, fossil fuel and biomass combustion, some industrial processes. Lifetime of 109 years
4. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)types of refrigerants. All very high GWP eg. HFC-23 has a GWP of 14600 and lifetime of 228 years
5. Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) used in refrigerants and solvents, very high GWPs. eg. PFC-14 has a GWP of 7380 and lifetime of 50000 years.
6. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) has GWP of 25200 and comes from a limited amount of uses, in some electric insulation and manufacture of electric equipment. Lifetime 2300 years
7. Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3): GWP of 17400 , in electronics eg. semiconductor manufacturing. Makes up less than 0.0001% of emissions in the atmosphere, lifetime of 569 years.

Question 4

Carbon sinks eg. land (Geological reservior), ocean, biosphere

Answer 4

co2 molecule chemically unreactive in atmosphere - natural removal of CO2 from the atmosphere can only occur via uptake by other carbon reservoirs.

• Removal flows of excess CO2 from the atmospehre via these carbon reservoirs = carbon sinks
  Flows between these reservoirs = carbon cycle.
• Uptake of carbon by the geological reservoir eg. through the formation of fossil fuel deposits, occurs only very slowly over 10s of 1000s of years and longer.
  without human perturbance, the carbon cycle would be in equilibrium.
  -> anthropogenically emitted CO2 is locked in and will change the climate for millennia

Question 5

Carbon budgets, global impacts, inc planetary boundaries

Answer 5

global warming is roughly proportional to the amount of cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. so if humans stop emitting CO2, global warming will not disappear but stop increasing further.

Carbon budget = amount of cumulative CO2 emissions

Question 6

Carbon removal

Answer 6

• NATURE-based solutions (Nbs) - planting trees, mangroves and grasslands that soak up CO2 from the atmosphere
• Technological solutions - inc technologies like direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), which is the process of trapping CO2 from the air and depositing it in geological stores in a concentrated form
• Hybrid strategies inc examples like growing crops with enhanced roots, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and ocean-based carbon removal solutions such as deep sea storage

Question 7

Planetary boundaries

Question 8

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Global warming

Question 9

Different potential climate futures

Question 10

Climate sensitivity

Question 11

Climate feedback processes

Answer 11

Feedback loops

Question 12

Melting ice caps and sea level rises

Question 13

Extreme weather and natural hazards

Question 14

Accounting for climate change impacts

Question 15

Challenges in climate modelling

Question 16

Attributing impacts to climate change

Question 17

Feedback processes and tipping points

Question 18

Human choices

Question 19

Assessing Macroeconomic impact and financial system risk

Question 20

Financial system risk

Question 21

Universal ownership

Question 22

FINANCIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS

Answer 22

Physical risks

Question 23

Transition risks

Answer 23

• policy and legal
• legal (liability risks)
• technology risks
• Market risks
• reputational risks

Question 24

SUPPLY, OPERATIONAL AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ISSUES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Answer 24

Natural capital and resource scarcity
- Water scarcity
- Land use and degradation
- - reducing deforestation
- The ocean economy

Question 25

Biodiversity and natural habitat loss

Question 26

Supply chain vulnerability

Question 27

Stakeholder relationships

Question 28

the FINANCIAL MANIFESTATION of climate change

Answer 28

• Revenue
• expenditure
• assets
• liabilities
• financing

Question 29

Stranded assets

Question 30

Climate-related financial risks at the corporate level (private and public sectors)

Answer 30

• risk transfer tools for companies and investors
• Calculating Climate Value at Risk (CVar)

Question 31

Climate-related financial risks at the public level and the opportunities for governments
[…]

Answer 31

Investment materiality: asset, project and business activity assessment
SFDR

Question 32

Climate-related opportunities

Answer 32

• Energy sources
• Resource efficiency
• • using less materials by design
• • material substitution
• • fabrication yield improvements

eg. decarbonising steel

Question 33

Circular economy

Answer 33

principles:
1. design out waste and pollution
2. keep products and materials in use
3. use renewable energy
4. regenerate natural systems

-currently remains a major CIRCULARITY GAP

Question 34

Products, services, markets and diversification

Answer 34

Low-carbon goods and services exist in all sectors across the world. A future low-carbon economy will create a transformation in the range of products and services offered by businesses, as well as the business models to serve them/
The low-carbon transition will also require significant structural changes to the economy that will create new national markets.

Sharing economy business models

Question 35

Adaptation and resilience

Answer 35

Global Commission on Adaptation (GCA) five target areas:

Question 36

Assessment of social factors related to climate change

Question 37

Health and labour productivity

Answer 37

case study - heat stress and labour productivity

Question 38

Food security
- negative impacts of climate change are expected to outweigh any positive benefits

Question 39

Security and migration

Answer 39

new displacements by disasters (broken down by hazards)

Question 40

Cities and urbanisation

Question 41

Disaster preparedness and resilience

Question 42

Achieving a ‘just transition’