Chapter 19: Quantity Theory, Inflation, and the Demand for Money Flashcards
Quantity Theory of Money (Equation of Exchange)
M x V = P x Y M = the money supply P = price level Y = aggregate output (income V = velocity of money (average number of times per year that a dollar is spent)
Quantity Theory of Money (Explanation)
- Velocity fairly constant in short run
- Aggregate output at full-employment level
- Changes in money supply affect only the price level
- Movement in the price level results solely from change in the quantity of money
- Good theory in the long run but not the short run
Quantity Theory and the Price Level
P = (M x Average V) / Average Y
-Classical economists believed that the level of aggregate output Y produced in the economy during normal times would remain at the full-employment level
Quantity Theory and Inflation
Inflation (pi) = % change M - % change Y
- Inflation rate is the growth rate of the price level
- Assume velocity is constant => growth rate is 0
Two ways the government can pay for spending
1) Raise revenue by levying taxes
2) Go into debt by issuing government bonds
* can also create money to pay for goods and services
Gov’t budget constraint reveals two important facts
1) If the government deficit is financed by an increase in bond holdings by the public, there is no effect on the monetary base and hence on the money supply
2) But, if the deficit is not financed by increased bond holdings by the public, the monetary base and the money supply increase
Hyperinflation
periods of extremely high inflation of more than 50% per month
- U.S. hasn’t experienced this
- One of worst cases in Zimbabwe in the 2000s
Keynesian Theories of Money Demand
Three motives why individuals hold money:
1) Transactions motive
2) Precautionary motive
3) Speculative motive
* Distinguishes between real and nominal quantities of money
Transactions motive
- Keynes initially accepted the quantity theory view that the transactions component is proportional to income
- Later, he and other economists recognized that new methods for payment, referred to as payment technology, could also affect the demand for money
Precautionary motive
- Keynes also recognized that people hold money as a cushion against unexpected wants.
- Keynes argued that the precautionary money balances people want to hold would also be proportional to income
Speculative motive
Keynes also believed people choose to hold money as a store of wealth
Putting the three motives together
Velocity is not constant:
- The procyclical movement of interest rates should induce procyclical movements in velocity.
- Velocity will change as expectations about future normal levels of interest rates change
Theory of portfolio choice and Keynesian liquidity preference
The theory of portfolio choice can justify the conclusion from the Keynesian liquidity preference function that the demand for real money balances is positively related to income and negatively related to the nominal interest rate
Other factors that affect the demand for money
1) Wealth
2) Risk
3) Liquidity of other assets
SEE SUMMARY TABLE 1
Interest rates and money demand
- If interest rates do not affect the demand for money, velocity is more likely to be constant so the view that aggregate spending is determined by the quantity of money is more likely to be true
- However, the more sensitive the demand for money is to interest rates, the more unpredictable velocity will be, and the less clear the link between the money supply and aggregate spending will be