Chapter 14 Flashcards
Spot exchange rate
Current exchange rate of trading a currency for another currency.
It is the going rate when people want to exchange currency immediately or at the earliest possible date.
Floating currency
Currency whose value fluctuates constantly depending on demand and supply for that currency.
Fixed currency
Currency whose value is pegged to another currency by a monetary authority. (Very little deviation from that rate)
Ex: Saudi Riyal exchange rate to 1 US Dollar never changes from 3.75. (Only slightly)
Belize Dollar is pegged at 2 BZD to 1 USD. (Only slightly)
Forward exchange rate
is the exchange rate at which a bank agrees to exchange one currency for another at a future date
Ex: You are set to receive a set of goods from a British company in 90 days, so you must pay in pounds. Since the dollar fluctuates against the pound, you want to lock in an exchange rate to facilitate the transaction. So, you will negotiate a deal with the bank to lock in a future exchange rate to exchange dollars for pounds once the goods arrive in 90 days.
Shifters of currency demand
- Demand for country’s goods leads to more demand for that nation’s currency and vice versa.
- Relatively high real interest rates on interest-bearing assets leads to greater demand for currency to buy those assets compared to the country of the citizens demanding the currency (and vice versa) (Ex: Higher real interest in US assets compared to Mexico will lead to more demand for USD from Mexicans)
- Future expected exchange rates (direct relationship with demand)
- Relatively high inflation compared to country in question will decrease demand and vice versa (Ex: Mexicans will demand less US goods if inflation is relatively higher there than in Mexico)
Shifters of currency demand and supply between two countries
- If there’s greater demand for country A’s goods, then demand for country A’s currency will increase from country B and the supply of country B’s currency will increase. Country A currency will appreciate while country B’s will depreciate. Vice versa.
- If real interest rates for interest-bearing assets (like bonds and money market securities) are higher in Country A than in Country B, then demand for Country A currency from Country B will increase while supply for Country B’s currency will increase. Country A currency will appreciate while Country B’s will depreciate. Vice versa.
- Relatively high inflation in country A to country B will lead to the opposite effects as #2.
- When people in country B believe a currency, or assets in a country A, will appreciate, the demand for that currency increases and supply for country B’s will increase. Same effects as #2.
- Increases in GDP and people’s income in Country A will lead to greater demand of goods in Country B, leading to similar effects as #2.
- Political Instability decreases demand for country A’s currency. Similar effects as #2.
Currency Market Problems?
Pros and cons of strong currency
Pros: Can import cheap goods from abroad, Can encourage foreign investment, Easier for tourists
Cons: Expensive exports, Expensive goods at home
Pros and cons of weak currency
Pros: Cheap, competitive exports, makes foreign travel more expensive for local citizens
Cons: Expensive imports
Economic prosperity and exchange rate relationship
Countries with stable and growing economies will have higher exchange rates whereas countries with unstable or declining economies will have lower exchange rates.
Expansionary fiscal policy impact on currency exchange rate for a given country. Problems?
Depreciation because more disposable income and higher prices as a result means more demand for imported goods (Contractionary policy has the opposite effect). (Changing spending or taxes)
Greater borrowing lifts interest rates throughout the economy (leading to appreciation as investors are attracted to domestic interest-bearing securities)
Monetary policy impact on currency exchange rate for a given country. Problems?
Depreciation because more disposable income and higher prices as a result means more demand for imported goods (Expansionary monetary policy)
Expansionary monetary policy can also cause depreciation by lowering interest rates. Contractionary monetary policy will cause appreciation. Interest rates that are higher attract investors.
What causes trade surpluses?
One is if a country produces a good or service that is in high demand by other countries but which cannot be produced domestically in those other countries. Ex: Saudi Arabia and oil, Taiwan and semiconductors
Another situation that can lead to a trade surplus is if a country has a competitive advantage in the production of a good or service. This could be due to a variety of factors, including lower labor costs, access to raw materials, or technological advantages. Ex: China has such an advantage in production of many goods and services allowing it to produce more cheaply that other countries, making their exports attractive.
Effects of trade surpluses?
Appreciation of currency and inflation due to increased demand for given country’s goods
What causes trade deficits?
Drops in productivity
Currency appreciation
Budget deficits