Chapter 13 - Judgment, Decisions, and Reasoning Flashcards
1
Q
Inductive Reasoning
A
- The process of drawing general conclusions based on specific observations and evidence.
- Conclusions are probable but not definite.
- Can be automatic.
2
Q
What factors contribute to the strength of an inductive argument?
A
- Representativeness of observations: How well do the observations about a particular category represent all of the members of a category?
- Number of observations: How often we observe something in a specific location/context.
- Quality of the evidence: Stronger evidence results in stronger conclusions.
3
Q
Availability Heuristic
A
- States that events that more easily come to mind are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily recalled.
- Ex: Which is more prevalent in English words that begin with the letter r or words in which r is the third letter?
4
Q
What is the main issue with the availability heuristic?
A
- Since these heuristics are based on availability they can mislead us into reaching the wrong conclusion.
5
Q
Illusory Correlations
A
- Occur when a relationship between two events appears to exist, but actually doesn’t, or this relationship is weaker than we think.
- Can result in stereotypes as the illusory correlations help certify.
- Ex: You wearing your lucky shirt and your team winning.
6
Q
Representativeness Heuristic
A
- Involves making judgments based on how much an event resembles other events.
- States that the likelihood that an instance is a member of a larger category depends on how well that instance resembles properties we typically associate with that category.
Ex: You see a quiet guy who reads a lot, do you think he is more likely to be a farmer or librarian?
7
Q
Base Rate
A
- The relative proportion of different classes in the population.
- Applying base rates can help make representativeness heuristics more accurate.
8
Q
Conjunction Rule
A
- States that the probability of a conjunction of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents (A or B alone).
- Culprit is the representativeness heuristic.
Ex: Is Linda a bank teller or a bank teller and an activist?
9
Q
The Law of Large Numbers
A
- Statistical rule
- States that the larger the number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population.
- Makes us aware that we should be skeptical of conclusions drawn with small populations or sample sizes.
10
Q
Myside Bias
A
- How people can evaluate evidence in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes.
- Type of confirmation bias
- Founded by Charles Lord
11
Q
How did Wason demonstrate how confirmation bias can affect how people solve problems?
A
- They were given three numbers and had to discover his reason for picking these numbers.
- People had to try and pick their own three numbers.
- If they followed Wason’s rule they were correct if they didn’t they were wrong, and they had to identify the rule.
- Many people were wrong because they were only seeking evidence that confirmed their hypothesis, not evidence that refuted it.
- People who tested the rule numerically before creating a hypothesis had more success than others because people doing this were trying to disprove their hypothesis instead of confirming it.
12
Q
The Backfire Effect
A
- The finding that an individual’s support for a particular viewpoint could actually become stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoint.
13
Q
Deductive Reasoning
A
- We determine whether a conclusion logically follows from statements.
- Starts with broad principles to make logical predictions about specific cases.
14
Q
What is the difference between truth and validity?
A
- Truth talks about accuracy, whereas validity is judged by the internal consistency of statements.
- Something can be true and valid and not true and still valid.
15
Q
How can a conclusion in deductive reasoning be definitely true?
A
- If both premises are definitely true and if the form of the syllogism is valid.
16
Q
Mental Model
A
- A specific situation represented in a person’s mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning.
17
Q
What is the basic principle behind mental models?
A
- People create a model
- Generate a tentative conclusion
- Look to falsify that model
- Modify the model
- Conclude that the syllogism is valid
18
Q
What is the basic principle behind the mental model theory?
A
- A conclusion is valid only if it cannot be refuted by any model of the premises.
19
Q
Falsification Principle
A
- To test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule.
- As seen in Wason’s four card problem
20
Q
How did Cheng and Holyoak suggest how we think?
A
- They said we think in terms of schemas.
21
Q
Permission Schema
A
- States that if a person satisfies a specific condition, then they will get to carry out an action.
- Helps people activate their attention on a card that would test a specific schema.
22
Q
Expected Utility Theory
A
- Assumes that people are basically rational.
23
Q
Utility
A
- Refers to outcomes that achieve a person’s goal.
24
Q
Expected Emotions
A
- Emotions that people predict they will feel for a particular outcome.
25
Q
Risk Aversion
A
- The tendency to avoid taking risks.
26
Q
Incidental Emotions
A
- Emotions that are not caused by having to make decisions.
- Related to a person’s general disposition, something that happened earlier in the day, or the general environment.
27
Q
Opt-In Procedure
A
- Requires the person to take an active step in making a decision/confirming a decision.
28
Q
Opt-Out Procedure
A
- Everyone has to do something and you have to take the step to opt out.
29
Q
Status Quo Bias
A
- The tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision.
30
Q
The Framing Effect
A
- Decisions are influenced by how choices are stated or framed.
31
Q
Does the brain activate when we make decisions?
A
- Yes in many different places.
- When we make negative decisions places in charge of negative emotions activate and vice versa.
32
Q
Dual System Approach
A
- The idea that there are two mental systems. This approach explains the many mistakes we make in terms of different mental systems or mechanisms.
- System 1: A fast, automatic, intuitive system. Many more errors. Used most frequently in our day-to-day lives.
- System 2: A slower, more deliberative, thoughtful system. Can intervene for the errors of system 1.
