Chapter 13 - Judgment, Decisions, and Reasoning Flashcards
1
Q
Inductive Reasoning
A
- The process of drawing general conclusions based on specific observations and evidence.
- Conclusions are probable but not definite.
- Can be automatic.
2
Q
What factors contribute to the strength of an inductive argument?
A
- Representativeness of observations: How well do the observations about a particular category represent all of the members of a category?
- Number of observations: How often we observe something in a specific location/context.
- Quality of the evidence: Stronger evidence results in stronger conclusions.
3
Q
Availability Heuristic
A
- States that events that more easily come to mind are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily recalled.
- Ex: Which is more prevalent in English words that begin with the letter r or words in which r is the third letter?
4
Q
What is the main issue with the availability heuristic?
A
- Since these heuristics are based on availability they can mislead us into reaching the wrong conclusion.
5
Q
Illusory Correlations
A
- Occur when a relationship between two events appears to exist, but actually doesn’t, or this relationship is weaker than we think.
- Can result in stereotypes as the illusory correlations help certify.
- Ex: You wearing your lucky shirt and your team winning.
6
Q
Representativeness Heuristic
A
- Involves making judgments based on how much an event resembles other events.
- States that the likelihood that an instance is a member of a larger category depends on how well that instance resembles properties we typically associate with that category.
Ex: You see a quiet guy who reads a lot, do you think he is more likely to be a farmer or librarian?
7
Q
Base Rate
A
- The relative proportion of different classes in the population.
- Applying base rates can help make representativeness heuristics more accurate.
8
Q
Conjunction Rule
A
- States that the probability of a conjunction of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents (A or B alone).
- Culprit is the representativeness heuristic.
Ex: Is Linda a bank teller or a bank teller and an activist?
9
Q
The Law of Large Numbers
A
- Statistical rule
- States that the larger the number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population.
- Makes us aware that we should be skeptical of conclusions drawn with small populations or sample sizes.
10
Q
Myside Bias
A
- How people can evaluate evidence in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes.
- Type of confirmation bias
- Founded by Charles Lord
11
Q
How did Wason demonstrate how confirmation bias can affect how people solve problems?
A
- They were given three numbers and had to discover his reason for picking these numbers.
- People had to try and pick their own three numbers.
- If they followed Wason’s rule they were correct if they didn’t they were wrong, and they had to identify the rule.
- Many people were wrong because they were only seeking evidence that confirmed their hypothesis, not evidence that refuted it.
- People who tested the rule numerically before creating a hypothesis had more success than others because people doing this were trying to disprove their hypothesis instead of confirming it.
12
Q
The Backfire Effect
A
- The finding that an individual’s support for a particular viewpoint could actually become stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoint.
13
Q
Deductive Reasoning
A
- We determine whether a conclusion logically follows from statements.
- Starts with broad principles to make logical predictions about specific cases.
14
Q
What is the difference between truth and validity?
A
- Truth talks about accuracy, whereas validity is judged by the internal consistency of statements.
- Something can be true and valid and not true and still valid.
15
Q
How can a conclusion in deductive reasoning be definitely true?
A
- If both premises are definitely true and if the form of the syllogism is valid.
