Chapter 13 & 14 Flashcards
Process of obtaining an outcome.
Trail
The individual possibility that occurs on each trial.
Outcome.
Specific collection of outcomes.
Event.
Collection of all possible outcomes.
Sample Space.
What is a Probability?
Numerical measure of likelihood that an outcome or event will occur. P(A). Lies Between 0 & 1. Sum of Probabilities is 1.
What are the 3 methods of assigning event probabilities?
- a priori (Classical Method). 2. Relative Frequency Method. 3. Personal Probability Method.
A priori meaning.
Knowledge is obtained by analyzing concepts independent of experience. Ex. All bachelors are unmarried, mathematics. These can be derive by reason alone.
A posteriori meaning.
Knowledge is obtained through experience. Athletics.
Which method uses prior knowledge of the process, done before the experiment, and P(Event) = X / T; S is the number of event outcomes and T is the number of outcomes equally likely.
A priori, classical method.
Which method collects actual data, the probability is determined after the trail, and P(Event) = X / T; X is repeated number of times of the trail and X is the number of times the event is observed.
Relative Frequency Method.
This assures the relative frequency method.
The Law of Large Numbers.
Two or more events happening at the same time.
Compound events.
Numerical measure of likelihood that compound event (two or more events) will occur.
Compound event probability.
These three formula methods are used to determine compound event probability but simplify when considering disjoint and independent events.
Addition Rule, Conditional Probability Formula, and Multiplication Rule.
When is the addition rule used and what is the formula?
It is used to get compound probabilities for union of events and/or not knowing if A & B are disjoint.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A U B).
For Disjoint Events, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).
