Chapter 10: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Flashcards
What is the definition of forecast?
A forecast is an estimation of the value of a variable in the future. For example, what is the forecast of sales for next month?
_____ is used to uncover and understand relationships between and among variables in order to predict what will happen to a target variable.
prediction
Prediction focuses on what?
individual outcomes
Forecasting focuses on what?
Macro level over time
What is a time series sequence?
A sequence of values of an attribute, or variable, measured at equidistant intervals of time.
_____. _____ _____ is a technique that analysts use to (a) uncover any implicit structure—that is, patterns or trends—in the data and
(b) model that structure to make forecasts.
time series analysis
What is a time series analysis useful for?
The first goal of the time series is to discover patterns and trends. The second is to create the best possible forecast from those observations.
Why should order be maintained during any forecasting undertaking?
Recording the time axis breaks the natural progression of time
“The term “_________” refers to the fact that there is a single variable”
univariate
What is a multivariate time series?
It is one in which multiple variables change over time, and we want to model the interactions among them.
Exponential smoothing uses what damping factor?
single damping factor.
