Chapter 10 Risk Assesment

Question 1

What is Risk Assessment?

Answer 1

Risk is viewed as a range (Steadman, 2000)

• Probabilities change across time
• Interaction among offende characteristics and situation

Risk assessment has 2 components:

• Prediction
• Management

Question 2

Risk Assessment: Civil Settings

Answer 2

• Civil commitment
• Child protection
• Immigration laws
• School and labour regulations
• Duty to warn
• Limits of confidentiality

Question 3

Risk Assessment: Criminal Settings

Answer 3

Risk assessments conducted at major decision points:

• Pretrial
• Sentencing
• Release

Public safety outweighs solicitor-client privilege (Smith v. Jones, 1999)

Question 4

Types of Prediction Outcomes

Answer 4

• True Positive(predicted to reoffend; reoffends)
• True Negative(predected to not reoffend; does not reoffend)
• False Positive(predicted to reoffend; does not reoffend)
• False Negative(predicted to not reoffend; reoffends)

Two types of errors are dependent on each other

Each outcome has different consequences for offender or society

Question 5

Base Rates

Answer 5

Represents the % of people within a given population who commit a criminal or violent act

• Prediction difficult when base rates are too high or low
• False positives tend to occur with low base rates
• Easier to predict frequent vs. infrequent events

Question 6

Methodological Issues

Answer 6

Assumptions of risk assessment and measurement
-Ideal evaluation vs. reality

Three weaknesses of research (Monahan & Steadman, 1994):

• Limited number of risk factors
• How criterion variable is measured
• How criterion variable is defined

Question 7

Judgement Errors and Biases

Answer 7

• Heuristics
• Illusory correlation
• Ignore base rates
• Reliance on salient or unique cues
• Overconfidence in judgements

Question 8

Unstructured Clinical Judgement

Answer 8

• Decisions characterized by professional discretion and lack of guidelines
• Subjective
• No specific risk factors
• No rules about how risk decisions should be made

Question 9

Dr. James Grigson

Answer 9

• Nicknamed “Dr. Death” or “the hanging shrink”
• Forensic psychiatrist in Dallas
• Used unstructured clinical judgement
• Expelled from professional association for claims of 100% accuracy in predicting violence

Question 10

Actuarial Prediction

Answer 10

• Decisions based on risk factors that are selected and combined based on empirical or statistical evidence
• Most actuarial risk instruments include only static risk factors
• Evidence favours actuarial assessments over unstructured clinical judgement

Question 11

Structured Professional Judgement

Answer 11

• Decisions guided by predetermined list of risk factors derived from research literature
• Judgement of risk level is based on professional judgement
• Diverse group of professionals

Question 12

Risk factor Definition

Answer 12

Risk Factor – measurable feature of an individual that predicts the behaviour of interest (e.g., criminal behaviour or violence)

Question 13

Types of Predictors

Answer 13

1. Static Risk Factors
   - Historical
   - Factors that cannot be changed
2. Dynamic Risk Factors
   - Fluctuate over time
   - Factors that can be changed
   - Acute vs. stable dynamic risk factors

Question 14

Important Risk Factors

Answer 14

• Dispositional
• Historical
• Clinical
• Contextual

Question 15

Dispositional Risk Factors

Answer 15

1. Demographics
   - Age
   - Gender
2. Personality characteristics
   - Impulsivity
   - Psychopathy

Question 16

Historical Risk Factors

Answer 16

• Past antisocial behaviour
• Age of onset of antisocial behaviour
• Childhood history of maltreatment
• Past supervision failure, escape, or institution maladjustment

Question 17

Clinical Risk Factors

Answer 17

1. Substance use
2. Mental disorder
   - Diagnosis of schizophrenia or affective disorders
   - Threat/control override” (TCO) symptoms

Question 18

Contextual Risk Factors

Answer 18

• Lack of social support to help individual in his or her day-to-day life
• Easy access to weapons
• Easy access to victims

Question 19

Risk Assessment Instruments

Answer 19

1. Actuarial Instruments

2. Structured Professional Judgement Instruments

Question 20

Current Issues

Answer 20

1. Where is the theory?
   - More attention on WHY is needed
2. Protective factors
   - Factors that reduce or mitigate the likelihood of violence
3. Limitations of risk assessments
4. Use of scientific research
   - Practitioners not using instruments

Question 21

Females Offenders and Crime

Answer 21

• Women engage in less crime
• Women reoffend at lower rates
• Childhood victimization more prevalent
• Mental disorders more prevalent

Question 22

Females Offenders and Risk

Answer 22

1. More similarities in risk factors for men and women than differences
2. Gender-specific risk factors
   - History of self-injury
   - Poor self-esteem
3. How well do risk assessment instruments developed with male offenders work with female offenders?
   - LSI-R has predictive validity

Question 23

Desistance From Crime

Answer 23

1. Desistance: process of ceasing to engage in criminal behaviour
2. Little research on why offenders stop committing crime
3. Factors relating to desistance:
   - Age
   - Employment
   - Marital relationships