Chapter 1 (Getting started)

Question 1

Time series forecasting

Answer 1

Anything that is observed sequentially over time is a time series (observed at regular intervals of time)

Question 2

Forecast

Answer 2

An estimate of the probabilities of possible futures

Question 2

Forecasting situations

Answer 2

The variation associated with the thing we are forecasting will shrink as the event approaches

The further ahead we forecast, the more uncertain we are

Question 3

Prediction interval

Answer 3

A range of values the random variable could take with relatively high probability

Question 4

Point forecasts

Answer 4

The average of the possible future values

Or average value of the forecast distribution

Question 5

Forecast distribution

Answer 5

Set of values that the random variable could take, along with its relative probabilities