Chapter 1 Flashcards
Weather
Exact state of atmosphere at a particular location and time
Climate
long term patters of weather
Climate change
long term differences in weather patterns over multi-decadal periods
How much heat by GHG goes into oceans?
93%
Why are sea levels rising
- melting of ice
- water expands when warm
How to see climate history
- Tree rings: measurements can reveal climate variations in regions where trees experience seasons - past millenium
- corals: skeeltons fo these sea creatures can yield ocean’s climate conditions - millions of years
- speleothems (stalactites; stalagmites): cabe structures yield estimate of climate around cave - past few 100,000 years
- ice cores: chemical composition of ice (mainly greenland and antarctica) yeild climate estimates - past million years
- ocean sediment: composition of mud at sea bottom provides climate info - past tens of millions of years
planet cycles between which two periods
- Cold periods (ice ages)
- Warm periods (inter-glacial periods)
Global Temperature average between ice and interglacial
around 6 degrees C (why 1 degree warming since 19th century is huge deal – 16 times faster than average rate of warming)
E balance between sun and earth
Sun provides 340 W/m^2 to earth (global and annual avg)
– 30% incoming sunlight is reflects by clouds, aersols, etc.
total E absorbed = 238 W/m^2
Main GHG
- Water vapor
- CO2 (current [] = 415 ppm which is 130 ppm increase since industrial revolution)
- CH4 (0.8 ppm to 1.9 ppm)
CO2 trend in past 50 years
44% emitted CO2 released in atmosphere; 56% emitted CO2 absorbed by Ocean and land (ocean acidification + plant growth)
Evidence CO2 is from FF
due to C isotope - matches FF C isotope (mainly 12C and some 13C)
Global Warming Potential (GWP)
heat trapping power
relative to Carbon (calculated using 100 year time horizon)
- CH4 : 1 kg CH4 = 28 kg CO2
- halocarbons: 100-1000s
- N2O: 265
- O3: absorb UV and IR - while humans don’t emit O3 we emit hydrocarbons and N oxide (O3 precursors)
Aersol examples
- FF containing sulfur
- Black Carbon aerosols (soot - incomplete combustion of smoldering fire; 2 stroke gas engine)
- mineral dust (produced by agriculture activities (plowing, harvesting), changes in water surface (lake drying), industrial practices (cement))
GHG caused positive change (heating)
caused change to radiative forcing of 3.6 W/m^2
Aersols cause negative change (cooling)
caused change radiative forcing of 1.1 W/m^2
Net human contribution
positive change of 2.7 W/m^2 - 1.07 degrees C
Water vapor feedback
while water vapor is most prominent GHG (main source of H20 in atm is from evaporation from oceans) - it is primarily removed from atm when it rains/snows
since amount of H2O in atm is regulated by evaporation and condensation - it is fundamentally set by earth’s temperature (if earth’s temp rises, then H2O in atm rises)
thus, human h20 emissions pose no significance in comparison with oceans, BUT, due to this relationship - water vapor AMPLIFIES changed cause by climate change
warmer atm = more H2O vapor = more warming (since H2O is a GHG)
==> Increase in H2O = increase in GHG = Increase in temp
–> has potential to double, maybe triple, warming caused by CO2, alone
natural processes that can affect climate
- tectonic processes
2, output of sun - orbital variations
- unforced variability
- GHG