CH3 Flashcards
In its simplest aspect, insurance has two fundamental characteristics:
Transfer or shift of risk from the individual to the group.
Sharing of losses, on some equitable basis, by all members of the group.
Potential difficulty:
some members might refuse to pay their assessment at the time of a loss.
This problem can be overcome by requiring advance payment for predicted future losses (based on past experience).
The amount of the advance payment depends on past experiences and future projections plus ( a cushion for) operation and administrative cost.
Insurance Defined: Individual Perspective
Insurance is an economic device whereby the individual substitutes a small certain cost (the premium) for a large uncertain financial loss (the contingency insured against) which would exist if it were not for the insurance.
Insurance from the Individual’s Perspective
Insurance does not decrease the risk or uncertainty for the individual as to whether the event will occur.
It does not change the probability of occurrence.
Rather, it reduces the probability of a financial loss associated with the event. It is a device that compensates for a loss.
Risk Reduction Through Pooling
If insurer could predict future losses with absolute precision, it would have no risk.
Accuracy of insurer’s prediction is based on the law of large numbers.
By combining a sufficiently large number of homogenous exposure units, the insurer is able to make predictions for the group as a whole using the theory of probability.
Probability Theory and Law of Large Numbers
Probability theory is the body of knowledge concerned with measuring the likelihood that something will happen and making predictions based on this likelihood.
The larger the size of the sample, the more accurate will be the estimate of the probability.
Two Interpretations of Probability
Relative frequency interpretation
signifies the relative frequency of occurrence expected, given a large number of separate independent trials (events that may be repeated for a long run may be governed by probabilities).
2. Subjective interpretation
probability is measured by the degree of belief in the likelihood of the given event’s occurrence (e.g., a student says she has a 50:50 chance of getting a B in the FINA3331 course
Determining the Probability of an Event
A priori estimates determined by examining the underlying conditions that cause the event:
A priori estimates not significant for us except in illustrating Law of Large Numbers.
Law of Large Numbers is:
The observed frequency of an event more nearly approaches the underlying probability of the population as the number of trials approaches infinity.
When probability cannot be determined by underlying conditions (i.e., a priori)
can be estimated based on past experience.
Probability Distribution
Probability distribution is an index of the relative frequency of all outcomes.
The probability assigned to the event is the average rate at which the outcome is expected to occur.
Probability distributions generally constructed on basis of a sample.
Dual Application of Law of Large Numbers
To estimate the underlying probability accurately, insurer must have a large sample of experience.
2. Once the estimate of probability has been made, it must be applied to a sufficiently large number of exposure units to permit the underlying probability “to work itself out.”
Insurance Defined from the Social Perspective
Insurance is an economic device for reducing and eliminating risk through the process of combining a sufficient number of homogeneous exposures to make the losses predictable for the group as a whole.
Insurance: Transfer or Pooling?
Insurance can exist without pooling, but not without transfer.
Even when risk is pooled or shared, it is transferred from the individual to the group.
Economic Contribution of Insurance
Creates certainty about the financial burden of loss.
Spreading losses that do occur.
Provides for an optimal utilization of capital.