Ch 5 Concepts+R Flashcards
Probability
proportion of times the event occurs in the long run
sample space
contains all the possible outcomes of a probability experiment
Event model
outcome or a collection of outcomes from a sample space
Probability model
probability experiment of a sample space
Law of large numbers
probability experiment repeated will approach its probability (proportion of times it occurs)
R-proportion vector
prop=numeric(n)
R-n=1000
total amount of experiments
R- when i=1
x=c(1,0,0,1….)
prop[1]=sum(x[1:1])/1
x[1:1]=c(1)
prop[1]=1/1=1
1,0,0,0,0,0……..
R-when i=2
x=c(1,0,0,1…..)
prop[2]=sum(x[1:2])/2
x[1:2]=c(1,0)
prop[2]=1/2=0.5
1,0.5,0,0…….
Probability experiment
when we don’t know the result but we know a long series of repetitions will come out.
sample space
has all possible outcomes of a probability experiment (ex, S-{1,2,3,4,5,6} for six sided die)
Ex of Sample space & probability: We would like to draw a SRS of n=3 from 10 people
a) what is the sample space
b) what is the probability both Person 1 and 2 will be selected
a) S={(1,2,3),(1,2,4),(1,2,5)….(8,9,10)}
b) (possibilities with 1,2 in them/ total # of possiblities)
8/(10
3)
8/120
How do you compute (10
3)
10 choose 3
=(10!)/ 3!(10-3)!
Computing probability with equally likely outcomes P(A)
of outcomes in A/ # of outcomes in a sample space aka (k/n)
The porbability of any event is always between
0 and 1 (0 being impossible) and 1 being guaranteed