CH 4 Overview of the Economics Flashcards
What are the 2 categories of economics?
Microeconomics and macroeconomics
Define “microeconomics”.
The study of behaviours of individuals/individual companies affecting what specific industries and individual companies produce and what individuals buy.
Define “macroeconomics”.
Focuses on the broader economy as a whole.
The primary users and/or suppliers of capital. (3)
- Consumers
- Businesses
- Governments
How is a “market” defined?
Any arrangement that allows buyers and sellers to enter into transactions (can be physical location or electronic platform)
What are the laws of supply and demand (all else being equal)?
High price, lower demand
Low price, higher demand
Higher price, higher supply
Lower price, lower supply
Market equilibrium shortage
Low price = higher demand = lower supply
Market equilibrium excess
High price = lower demand = higher supply
What is market equilibrium price?
Price point where supply = demand
How is Canada’s GDP measured?
The value of all of the final goods and services produced in Canada
What are the 2 ways GDP can be calculated?
- Expenditure approach: total of all the money spent on final goods and services
- Income approach: total of all the income earned producing these goods and services
2 mains reasons for increase in nominal GDP.
- Economy expansion
2. Prices increased
How is “real GDP” calculated?
Real GDP = Nominal GDP - Inflation
What contributes to the growth in GDP?
- Advances in technology to produce more
- Increase in population and in turn the workforce
- An improved workforce (more training, education)
The phases of business cycle.
Expansion, peak, contraction, trough, recovery
What happens in expansion phase?
- Economy is expanding and corporate profits rise
- Inflation is stable
- Businesses are increasing inventory to meet demand
- Business startups outnumber business closures
- Unemployment rate is low
- Stock market activity is strong
What to buy/sell in expansion phase?
Buy common shares
What happens in the peak phase?
- Demand exceeds supply
- Labour and product shortages cause wages and inflation to increase
- Interest rates begin to rise/bond prices fall
- Business sales decline
- Corporate profits fall causing stock prices to fall
What to buy/sell in peak phase?
Sell common shares and buy short term bonds
What happens in the contraction phase?
- Economic activity declines
- Growth of real GDP slows or turns negative
- Supply exceeds demand and unemployment rises
- Business failures outnumber start-ups
- Stock market activity is low
- Interest rates hit the highest level
What to buy/sell in contraction phase?
When interest rates hit the highest level, sell short-term bonds and buy long-term bonds
What happens in the trough phase?
- Inflation falls followed by interest rate fall, causing a bond rally
- Lower interest rates ignite the economy
What to buy/sell in the trough phase?
When interest rates hit their lowest, sell bonds and buy common shares
In what phase is interest rate at the highest vs. lowest?
Highest in contraction phase
Lowest in trough phase
What happens in the recovery phase?
- GDP returns to previous peak
- Cycle is followed by expansion and starts over again
What to buy/sell in recovery phase?
Continue to own common shares (the cyclical stock)
What are the 3 categories of economic indicators?
- Leading
- Coincident
- Lagging
What are “leading indicators”?
Change ahead of the economy, useful for anticipating what is going to happen in the near future
What are “coincident indicators”?
Change at the same time as the economy, useful to determine when a particular phase began and ended
What are “lagging indicators”?
Change after the economy, not useful in predicting changes/confirming when changes occurred
Examples of leading indicators.
Stock prices Average hours worked/week Commodity prices Manufacturer's new orders Money supply Housing starts
Examples of coincident indicators.
GDP
Retail sales
Industrial production
Personal income
Examples of lagging indicators.
Plant/equipment spending Unemployment Business loans Labour costs Inflation Cost of borrowing (interest on business loans)
What are the 3 measures/criteria used to identify recession?
- Depth: substantial decline
- Duration: decline must last more than a couple of months
- Diffusion: decline impacts overall economy not just one sector
What’s an indication of recession?
Negative growth of GDP
What are the 2 components of labour force?
Labour force = working + not working but actively searching for work
How is participation rate calculated?
Participation rate = labour force/working age population
How is unemployment rate calculated?
Unemployment rate = not working but actively searching for work/labour force
How is employment rate calculated?
Employment rate = working/labour force
Define “discouraged workers”.
The component of the working age population that are not working and have given up looking for work
3 arguments against unemployment rate.
- Discouraged workers not captured in unemployment rate and could be misleading to the health of the economy
- Does not capture the average duration of unemployment
- Does not address those underemployed.
Name the 4 types of unemployment.
- Frictional
- Cyclical
- Structural
- Seasonal
What is “frictional unemployment”?
No matter how healthy the economy is, there is always some level of unemployment.
What is “cyclical unemployment”?
Caused by changes in the business cycle.
What is “structural unemployment”?
Long-term and caused by advances/changes where workers do not have the skills needed to fill jobs.
What is “seasonal unemployment”?
Unemployment that occurs within seasonal industries.
Which two types of unemployment exist independent of the business cycle?
Frictional and structural
Variables that impact interest rates. (6)
- Supply and demand
- Default risk
- Foreign interest rates
- Exchange rates
- Central bank credibility
- Inflation
What is “risk reward relationship”?
The higher the default risk, the higher the interest rate
How is interest rate affected by exchange rate?
If CAD falls, government can increase interest rates, which increases foreign investments, and in turn increases the deamand for CAD
How do higher interest rates impact the economy? (3)
- Cost of borrowing for businesses increases, making it harder to invest more capital into the business
- Consumers discouraged from buying large expenditures on credit
- Cost of borrowing for existing debts increase
Define “money”. (3)
Money is:
- Medium of exchange
- Unit of account
- Store of value
The cause of inflation can be categorized in 2 ways.
- Demand-pull inflation
2. Cost-push inflation
What is “demand-pull inflation”?
Demand increases = company expenses increase = price increase
What is “cost-push inflation”?
Manufacturing costs increase = price increase
Inflation vs. deflation
Inflation = price increases Deflation = price falls
What happens in deflation?
Knowing price will drop = delay consumption > sales decline > profits decline > unemployment increases
What is “disinflation”?
Reduction in inflation, which still exists, but just not as high as before. Prices are increasing but just not as fast.
How is inflation measured?
Statistics Canada tracks Consumer Price Index (CPI)
What is Consumer Price Index (CPI)?
Basket of goods (600) representing what the average Canadian household buy
How is inflation rate calculated?
Inflation rate = Change in CPI from T1 and T2/CPI from T1
*if CPI increases it is inflation; decreases it is deflation
What are the costs of inflation? (4)
- Erodes standard of living for those living on fixed-income
- Reduces the real value of investments
- Distorts price signals sent to market participants
- Accelerating inflation causes interest rates to rise and could lead to recession
What is the “Phillips Curve”? Explain.
Indirect relationship between inflation and unemployment rate.
- Lower inflation can be achieved through slower economic growth which results in higher unemployment
- Lower unemployment can be achieved in the short run by allowing inflation to increase at a faster rate
What is “balance of payments”?
Captures Canada’s international financial interactions in two accounts:
- Current account (“trade account”)
- Capital and finance account
What is listed under “current account”? (2)
- Exports and imports (purchase/sale) of goods and services of both governments and individuals.
- Amounts that are required to service the capital account (eg. interest on loans/dividends)
What is listed under “capital and finance account”?
Investment items
What drives the value of a currency?
The demand for that currency since currency is subject to the same supply and demand forces
What affects the attractiveness of a country’s dollar? (7)
- Commodities
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- Trade
- Economic performance
- Public debts and deficits
- Political stability
What is the negative impact on a high Canadian dollar? Positive impact?
Negative: expensive to foreign importing Canadian goods.
Positive: cheaper for Canadians to import goods from other countries