CFA Book 1 Flashcards
Asset Manager Code of Professional Conduct (AMCPC)
- loyalty to clients
- investment process and actions
- trading
- risk management, compliance, support
- performance & valuation
- disclosures
Asset Manager Ethics Responsibilities
- always act ethically & professionally
- acit in the best interest of the client
- act in an objective and independent manner
- perform actions using skill, competence and diligence
- communicate accurately with clients on a regular basis
- comply with legal and regulatory reqs regarding capital mkts
AMCPC | Loyalty to Clients policies (3B1 p 123)
- align incentives (no undue risk)
- client confidential info
- AML
- def of a token gift
AMCPC | Investment Process and Actions (3B1 p 124)
- never manipulate mkt prices
- deal fairly when doing ARA
- reasonable basis
- diff levels of service
- explainable strategies
- ability to cash out
- IPS
AMCPC | Trading (3B1 p 125)
- no insider trading
- priority of transactions
- soft dollars use
- best execution
- equitable share allocation
AMCPC | Risk management, Compliance, Support (3B1 p 125)
- Policies/procedures for AMCPC, SPC, regs, law
- firm-wide risk system
- compliance officer
- portfolio info is correct & reviewed by 3rd party
- record retention 7 yrs
- sufficient, qualified staff
- disaster recovery plan
AACPC | Performance & Valuation (3B1 p 126)
- see GIPS
- 3rd party valuations
AMCPC | Disclosure (3B1 p 127)
Absolutely EVERYTHING
3 Behavioral models
- Barnewall 2 way model
- Bailard, Biehl, Kaiser 5 way model
- Pompain model
Behavior models | Barnewall 2 way model
2 investor categories: active and passive
Behavior models | Bailard, Biehl, Kaiser 5 way model
• 2 investeror dimensions:
◎ confidence: confident (C) to anxious (A)
◎ method of action: careful (F) to impetuous (I)
• 5 investor categories:
◎ straigt arrow (middle)
◎ Individualist (CF)
◎ Adventurer (CI)
◎ Guardian (AF)
◎ Celebrity (AI)
Behavior models | Pompian model
• 4 step assesment
• 2 dimensions: risk tolerance / investment style
• 4 Behavior Investor Types (BITs):
◎ passive preserver
◎ friendly follower
◎ independent individualist
◎ active acumulator
Behavior models | Pompian model - 4 step assessment
- active/passive
- risk tolerance scale
- behaviorial biases
- classify investor in BITS
Behavior models | Pompian model - BITs
Behavior Investor Types: Risk tolerance (low > high) & Investment style (conservative > aggressive):
◎ Least: Passive preserver (emotional: bad)
◎ Moderate low: Friendly follower (cognative: good)
◎ Moderate high: Independent individualist (cognative: good)
◎ Most: Active accumulator (emotional: bad)
Behavior models | Pompian model biases - Passive preserver
- Emotional: endowment, loss aversion, status quo, regret aversion
- Cognative: mental accouting, anchoring and adjustment
Behavior models | Pompian model biases - Friendly follower
- Emotional: regret aversion
- Cognative: availability, hindsight, framing
Behavior models | Pompian model biases - Independent individualist
- Emotional: overconfidence, self-attribution
- Cognative: conservatism, availability, confirmation, representativeness
Behavior models | Pompian model biases - Active accumulator
- Emotional: overconfidence, self-control
- Cognative: illusion of control
Client / Adviser success measure
- Adviser understands long term financial goals of client
- Adviser maintains consistent approach with client
- Adviser acts as client expects
- Both client and advisor benefit
Analyst behavioral biases
- overconfidence
- way management presents information
- biased research
Analyst behavioral biases | self calibration
- Mitigate overconfidence
- accurately remembering forecasts and accurate self-evaluations
Analyst behavioral biases | Company management influence
- framing
- anchoring and adjustment
- availablity
Investment committee behavioral biases
- Often no better than individual
- All individual + social proof bias: person follows the group
- To counteract, need independence
Excess return anomolies that are not
- Excess return before, but not after expenses
- Excess return with too low associated risk
Behavioral bias | Disposition effect
more willing to sell winners than losers
Behavioral bias | Biases creating excess returns
- Momentum effect
◎ Herding - Bubble and crash: panic buying/selling
- Value vs Growth
◎ Halo effect
Behavioral bias | Biases that contribute to overconfidence
- illusion of knowledge
- self-attribution
- representativeness
- availability
- illusion of control
- hindsight
Behavioral bias | Methods to avoid bias
- seek counter evidence/opinions
- defined systematic decision process
- verifiable data
- correct framing
- documenting decisions
- bayes formula
Behavioral bias | Quantitative indication of bubbles/crashes
- Bubble: 2 std dev from mean price
- Crash: 30% drop in a few months
Behavioral bias | Bubble/Crash biases
- overconfidence
- confirmation
- self-attribution
- hindsight
- regret aversion
- disposition effect
Behavioral finance | macro vs micro
- macro: mkt deviaition from traditional finance theory
- micro: individuals’ decision making process deviation from traditional finance (REM: rational economic men)
Rational economic men (REM)
The rational actor assumption in traditional finance theory
Bayes formula
P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B)
Behavioral finance | Utility theory
• Foundation of traditional finance theory
• diminishing marginal utility return
◎ >> concave risk averse utility function
◎ >> convex indifference curves
Behavioral finance | Satisfice
- sufficient satisfaction, but not optimal, are sufficient
- satis+ficent = satisfice
Behavioral finance | Decision theory
• associated with traditional finance theory • process of making optimal decision when decision maker is informed, math able, rational (REM)
Behavioral finance | Bounded rationality
- associated with behavioral finance theory
- Knowledge and cognative limitations of decision maker
- Satisfice
- More constrained that prospect theory
Behavioral finance | Prospect theory
- associated with behavioral finance theory
- similar to bounded theory
- risk aversion is replaced by loss aversion
- 2 phases: Editing phase, then Evaluation phase
Behavioral finance | Prospect theory : Editing phase
First three steps
- Codification: gain/loss & prob
- Combination: Combines similar outcomes
- Segregation: separation of risk-free and risky aspect of each outcome
Behavioral finance | Prospect theory: Evaluation phase
- assign weights and prob
◎ weights and prob are based on behavioral biases
◎ >>gains < losses, large prob < tail events - calc expected utility
IPS | Situational profiling and risk tolerance
- source of wealth
◎ active (entrepreneurial) vs passive (steady accum & inherit) - measure of wealth
◎ perceived wealth vs needs >> percieved risk tolerance - stage of life
◎ foundation, accumulation, maintenance, distribution
IPS | Situational profiling: Source of wealth
- Active: more risk tol, but possible business risk vs investment risk difference
- Passive: less risk tol
IPS | Situational profiling: Stage of life
- Foundation (mod risk)
- Accumulation (highest risk)
- Maintenance [retirement] (low-mod risk)
- Distribution: old wealthy giving to others (low - high risk)
Traditional finance assumes investors have 3 traits
- risk aversion: min risk; risk is volatility
- rational expectations: unbiased view of the world
- asset integration: all investments are correlated
Traditional vs Behavioral investor traits
- risk aversion vs loss aversion
- rational expectations vs biased expectiations
- asset integration vs ass segregation
IPS | 4 Personality types
- cautious: low risk, indecisive, difficult
- methodical: conservative, lots of data
- confident, decisive
- spontaneous: high portfolio turnover, chase fads, doubt self and others
IPS | for exam, IPS = O&C (objectives & constraint section of IPS)
*only front of card*
IPS | IPS benefits to clients
- id’s and documents objectives/constraints
- dynamic in response to changes w/client or mkt
- easy to understand
- education about self and investing
- understand manager’s actions
- transferable across managers
IPS | IPS benefits to manager
- knowledge of client
- guidance for investment decisions
- resolution of disputes (signed documentation)
IPS | RRTTLLU breakdown by O&C
- O: RR
- C: TTLLU
IPS | arrving at RRTTLLU
TTLLU >> risk >> return
IPS | SAA must conform to IPS
*only front of card*
IPS | RRTTLLU abbrev for notes in test
- return: rn
- risk: rs
- time horizon: tm
- taxes: tx
- liquidity: lq
- legal: ll
- unique: u
IPS | calcing returns with inflation
add inflation in initially so that you include the inflated numbers when calcing taxes
IPS | are residences included in investment calculations?
no
IPS | remember to watch for…
- pre vs after tax
- real vs nominal
IPS | Return objective: 2 categories
required vs desired return
IPS | Risk objective: 2 categories
- ability (time horizon, wealth & outflow) vs willingness to take risk
- always state conclusion
- if they differ, pick conservative choice
IPS | assessing clients’ preferences
look at actions as well as statements
IPS | 4 Risk objective factors
- time horizon
- critical goals/expenditures
- liquidity needs
- portfolios proportion of overall wealth
IPS | Time horizon constraint assessment
- state:
◎ number of stages
◎ each stage objective
◎ # yrs in each stage - other involved people (eg giving/receiving inheritance)
- multi-generational horizon
- retirement time horizon default: 20-25 yrs
IPS | 4 Tax constraint: tax types
- income
- capital gains
- wealth transfer
- personal property (eg car, house)
IPS | 4 Tax mitigation strategies
- Tax deferral (eg cap gain investment, loss harvesting, low turnover)
- Tax avoidance: tax free securities
- Tax reduction: investments with lower tax rates (eg cap gains vs income)
- Wealth transfer timing: (eg. no sales)
IPS | Complicated tax situation
state that tax situation is complex and manager should seek qualified tax advice
IPS | 5 Liquidity constraints
- ongoing, known expense (or in return jbj)
- emergnecy reserves (if requested)
- one-off, infrequent outflows (college falls under time horizon)
- one off positive inflows
- illiquid assets: restricted from sale, illiquid (eg house)(or in unique), large tax cost (or in unique or tax)
IPS | Legal: 2 common issues
- Trust: revocable vs irrevocable
- Family foundation
IPS | Legal: notes
- If no big legal issues state there are none beyond normal Code & Standards responsibilities
- manager must follow the trust document; weigh needs of different stakeholders
- mention other legal issues or lack of
- if complex issues, state manager will seek qualified expert advice
IPS | Unique constraints
- Special investment concerns (eg social)
- Special instructions (liquidate holdings)
- Restrictions on sales
- Forbidden asset / asset classes
- Assets outside of portfolio (eg. houses)
- Bequests
- Unattainable objectives
IPS | General notes
- State what is there and what is NOT there
- Complex issues, seek qualified expert
- Re-state all the facts
- point out conflicting factors
Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA)
is the mix of asset classes that will meet the IPS objectives and constraints
IPS & SAA | important return is pre or after tax?
after tax
SAA process
- eliminate portfolios that violate stated or appropriate constraints
- assess return to risk ranking
◎ sharpe ratio
◎ most often you will never need to get to this stage bc/only one portfolio remains
SAA portfolio elimination process
- excess/insufficient cash equivalents
- hold/fail to hold assets specified in constraints
- violates risk constraints
4.generate insuffient return (after-tax)
5.inappropriate asset classes or weightings (even if not specificed)
◎ 60 equity/40 bond&cash is default
◎ do not ignore home ownership >> too much real estate holdings
• address concentration issues (eg. low-basis inheritance, former employer stock)
exam note: don’t give extra answers - they will not be counted (eg 5 reasons vs 3 asked for)
blank
IPS & SAA | monte carlo simulation pro/cons vs deterministic method
• Pros:
1. path dependency
2. better display of risk/return by providing multiple possible outcomes
3. better tax analysis
4. better display of short-term & long-term performance (eg more ST vol, but better LT return)
5. better analysis of multi-period effects
6. can look at different points in timeline (major decision/event points)
• Cons:
1. if simplistic model of returns is used
2. if generalized asset class returns are used rather than specific investments (w/costs)
3. if simplistic tax model is used
Taxes | 3 types of taxes
- income
- wealth: assets and asset transfers
- consumption: sales & VAT
Taxes | marginal tax rate
tax rate paid on the last dollar of income
Taxes | how US taxes work in regards to different tax rates over a single income
- every one pays same rate on 1st dollar
- each dollar after is taxed on whichever tax rate basket that dollar falls into
- for example: $20K income: first $8,350 is taxed at 10%, remaining is taxed at 15%
- the overall rate (avg tax rate) is the weighted average of the different rates * the amount taxed at that rate
Taxes | 2 most common tax regimes
#1: common progressive (progressive, light on all investment) #2: LIght capital gains tax (progressive, light on cap gains)
Taxes | accrual taxes
• paid periodically (eg annually)
Taxes | FVIF - accrual tax
FVIF = [1 + R*(1 - T)]^N
R = pre-tax return
◎ or FVIF = (1 + Rart)^N
T = tax rate
N = number of investment periods
• = after-tax value of each dollar invested
Taxes | accrual (annual) tax drag % is less/more than tax rate
more, due to effect on compounding
Taxes | tax drag
- gain lost to taxes
- stated as a dollar value or %
Taxes | FVIF - deferred tax
FVIF = [(1 - T) \* (1 + R)^N + T\*B] R = investment return N = # periods T = tax rate B = % of original investment ALREADY taxed
Taxes | Tax drag: deferred vs accrual
- accrual $ and % > deferred
- deferred is constant % of total gain (horizon and return do not affect it) and equal to tax rate
- accrual $ and % grow with return and horizon
Taxes | FVIF - wealth based
FVIF = [(1 + R) \* (1 - T)]^N R = investment return N = # periods T = tax rate
Taxes | wealth tax attributes
- tax drag > tax rate
- horizon increase >> greater $ and % tax drag
- return increase >> greater $ lower % tax drag
Taxes | accrual tax attributes
- tax drag > tax rate
- horizon or return increase >> greater $ and % tax drag
Taxes | deferred tax attributes
constant % tax drag regardless of horizon or return
• tax drag % = tax rate
Taxes | annual return after realized (cummulative) taxes sans deferred taxes
Rart = R(1 - Trealized) = R[1 - (PiTi + PdTd + PcgTcg)]
Pi, Pd, Pcg = % of gain attributed to interest, div, realized cap gains
Ti, Td, Tcg = tax rate on interest, div, realized cap gains
Taxes | Tax loss harvesting
- using investment loses ot offset investment gains
- main gain reducing tax bill in near term and those saving can be invested
Taxes | HIFO
- Highest In (basis), First Out
- allowed by some govts
- Also LIFO if you believe taxes will rise
Taxes | trading activity and taxes
usually the frequent trader falls under a higher tax rate, which leads to lower returns, especially over longer horizons and higher return rates
Taxes | year end sales
- if gain, wait until next year
- if loss, sell this year to harvest the loss
Taxes | Mean variance optimization
Optimizing portfolio allocation should be done on an after tax basis using equivalent after-tax returns and risk on an after tax basis
Taxes | effective unrealized cap gains tax rate adjusting for annual taxes
Tecg = Tcg*[1 - (Pi + Pd + Pcg)] / [1 - (PiTi + PdTd + PcgTcg)]
Taxes | FVIF - all taxes
FVIFt = (1 - Tecg) * (1 + Rart)^N + Tecg - (1-B)*Tcg
• Tecg = effective cap gains adj for annual taxes
• Rart = return after realized taxes
Taxes | accrual equivalent (after tax) return
Rae = (ending balance after all taxes / beginning balance)^N
N = number of periods
• as horizon or amount deferred increases Rae approaches pre-tax return
Taxes | accrual equivalent tax rate
Tae = 1 - (Rae / Rpre-tax)
Taxes | tax deferred account (TDA)
- pre-tax income
- entire balance when withdrawn
- FVIFtda = (1 + R)^N * (1 - Tfuture)
Taxes | tax-exempt account (TEA)
- not Tea (equivalent accrual tax rate)
- after-tax income
- no tax upon withdrawl
- FVIFtea = (1 + R)^N * (1 - Tnow)
Taxes | TDA vs TEA
- if Tfuture < Tnow, then TDA is better
- if Tfuture > Tnow, then TEA is better
- if Tfuture = Tnow, then no difference
- if $ amounts are restricted and equal then compare FV’s of each, but remember to include extra taxed $ for TDA
Taxes | FVIF
Future Value Interest Factor
Taxes | List of FVIF’s
- tax deferred acct
- tax exempt acct
- all taxes
- accrued annual tax
- wealth tax
- deferred cap gains
Taxes | FVIF - deferred capital gains
FVIFcgt = (1 - Tcg)*(1 + R)^N + Tcg * B
• Tcg = cap gains tax rate
• B = cost basis PERCENT
• R = annual return
Taxes | Taxes and investment risk (volatility)
after tax risk = stan dev * (1 - T)
• govt absorbs part of variability
• tax exempt accts (TDA & TEA): investor bears all risk
Taxes | asset location
type of acct asset is located (eg tax advantaged acct)
Taxes | tax alpha
value created by effective tax management
Taxes | Taxes and trading behavior
- Traders: high turn-over, ST cap gains >> bad
- Active investors: med-turn-over, LT cap gains >> so-so
- Passive investors: LT cap gains over many years >> good
- Exempt investors: hold assets in tax-exempt accts
Estate
Every thing a person owns
• financial
• real estate (aka immovable property)
• collections (eg art)
• businesses
• non-tangible (eg trademarks, patents
Estate planning
Planning of transfer of person’s estate to other during lifetime or at death
Will
- aka testament
- legal doc that states rights of others to person’s estate
Probate
• Legal process that takes place at death
• court determines
◎ will validity
◎ decedent’s property inventory
◎ claims against decedent
◎ distributes property according to will
Intestate
Dying without a valid will
Avoiding probate
• There are ways to avoid probate
◎ joint ownership w rights of survivorship
◎ living trusts
◎ retirement plans
◎ life insurance
Estate | gifts
- aka lifetime gratuitous transfer or inter vivos transfer
- given while living
- subject to gift taxes; who pays is up to govt law
Estate | wealth transfer methods
- gifts
- bequests
Estate | bequests
- testamentary gratuitous transfer
- given after death
- estate taxe (paid by grantor/transferor); inheritance tax (paid by recipient); who pays is up to govt law
- taxes can vary based on relationship to decedent
Roman law
civil law system based on old Roman law; top down system where laws are handed down from legislative body
English law
common law system; bottom up; judges create precedents that are applied in future cases
Estate | forced heirship
- children or spouse have a right to a portion of parent’s estate
- all assets are usually included
Estate | community property rights
- each spouse entitled to half of the estate earned during mariage
- gift and inheritence can be held separately
- part of forced heirship
Estate | separate property rights
- each spouse owns their property separately
- common in civil law countries
Human capital
- aka net employment
- PV of net employment income over lifetime
Individual balance sheet
- Assets: all tangible and intangible assets including human capital and any other future income
- Liabilities: all current and future liabilities incurred by living life plus any required reserve fund (Core capital)
- Equity is anything left over (Excess capital)
Core capital
equals liabilities on Individual Balance Sheet
• sum product of expected annual spending x prob of living that long
Excess capital
equals equity on Individual Balance Sheet
Mortality table
death table (fun)
• combined prob: prob either one is alive next year
• real annual spending: living exp for coming year
• exp real spending: real annual spending * combined prob
• present value:PV of real annual spending
• total: PV of core capital required to meeting exp THROUGH the given year (row)
• 0 prob to live past 100 in table
monte carlo simulation advantage
gives a distribution of outcomes vs just a mean
longevity risk
- risk of running out of money in retirement prior to death (ruin)
- generally, retiree should spend
Estate | giver and givee terms before and after death
- before death: donor, recipient
- after death: testator, beneficiary
Estate | return and tax rate symbols
- Rg, Tig = investment return and annual tax rate of recipient
- Re, Tie = investment return and annual tax rate of giver
- Te = estate tax rate paid by the estate
- Tg = gift tax rate paid by either giver, receiver
Estate | relative value of gift / bequest
RV = FVgift / FVbequest ◎ = (1 - Tg)\*(1 + Rg\*(1 - Tig))^N / (1 - Te)\*(1 + Re\*(1 - Tie))^N F = future vale
Estate | relative value of gift when donor pays gift tax
- add in + Tg*Te due to reduced estate taxes
- RVg = (1 - Tg + Tg*Te)*(1 + Rg*(1 - Tig))^N / (1 - Te)*(1 + Re*(1 - Tie))^N
Estate | relative value: generation skipping
RV = 1 / 1 - T T = wealth transfer tax
Estate | calcing generation skipping
- calc excess above core capital requirements for giver and next generation
- give excess to third generaiton
Estate | spousal exemptions
some govts allow tax-free transfers between spouses
Estate | Valuation discounts
discount value of estate assets, such as discounting value of family business
Estate | Charitable gratuitous transfers
• tax deduction to giver, no taxes for recipient
• FVchar gift = (1 + Rg) + Toi * [1 + Re * (1 - Tie)]^N * (1 - Te)
Rg = return at charity
Toi = ordinary income tax rate of giver
Estate | Relative value: charity gifts
• giving a gift to charity NOW vs giving gift to beneficiary in N years
• RVgift = FVchar gift / FVbequest
◎ = [(1 + Rg) + Toi * [1 + Re * (1 - Tie)]^N * (1 - Te)] / [1 + Re * (1 - Tie)]^N * (1 - Te)]
Estate | Trust
- grantor (settlor) transfers assets to beneficiaries outside of probate
- ownership is fuzzy
- ownership and tax obligations can be split (eg beneficiary owns, but settlor or trust owes taxes)
Estate | revocable trust
- settlor can revoke trust and resume ownership of assets
- settlor is owner of assets for tax purposes
- assets included in claims against the settlor
Estate | irrevocable trust
- settlor relinquishes ownership and control, trustee (not beneficiary) is the owner
- protected from claims against the settlor; not protected if judged to be set up in anticipation of a claim
Estate | fixed trust
distributions to beneficiary is predetermined by settlor
Estate | discretionary trust
trustee determines how assets will be distributed to beneficiary (settlor can convery wishes)
• beneficiaries have no legal right to assets or income >> trust is protected from claims against beneficiaries
Estate | spendthrift trust
beneficiary is unable to manage trust responsibly; settlor maintains some control
Estate | trusts vs foundations in civil and common law countries
trusts more common in common law; foundations more common in civil law
Estate | trusts: ownership vs taxes
some countries, settlor responsible for taxes, even when trust owns the assets
Estate | life insurance
- efficient transfer of wealth
- often not taxed
- sometimes tax-free accumulation of weath to policy holder
- sometimes source of loans to policy holder
- trusts can be beneficiaries
Taxes | 2 types of jurisdiction
- source jurisdiction (aka territorial tax system): tax on assets/income generated in jurisdiction
- residence jurisdiction (majority of countries): tax on all resident’s assets/income, regardless of source
Taxes | Exit taxes
• response to residents leaving to tax havens
• tax on gains
• deemed disposition: tax on assets as if they were liquidated
◎ shadow period: taxes on earnings even after the resident leaves
Taxes | 3 types of overlapping tax jursidiction conflicts
- residence-residence
- source-source
- residence-source
Taxes | resolutions for tax jurisdiction conflicts
- res-res: OECD tie-breaker
- source-source: none
- res-source:
◎ credit: full resolution
◎ exemption (lowest tax rate): full resolution
◎ deduction (highest tax rate)
• on exam: rem to calc tax on non-disputed income
Taxes | Tax jurisdiction resolution residence vs source
• credit: full resolution; res pays source and deducts that from res tax bill (ie pays higher of two tax rates)
• exemption (lowest tax rate): full resolution; res pays source, no res tax (even if higher rate)
• deduction: worst for res; res can deduct from INCOME taxes paid to source
◎ T = Tres - Tsrc * (1 - Tres)
• on exam: rem to calc tax on non-disputed income
Taxes | tax avoidance vs tax evasion
tax avoidance is legal; tax evasion is illegal
Cost basis
Reference (starting) point for calculating capital gains on assets
Low basis, concentrated stock positions: 3 types of personalities
- entrepreneurs
- Executive
- Investor (less attached)
• psychological issues selling stock for all three; tied to control of firm
Specific risk
• aka unsystemic risk
• risk associated with the individual security
• companions to this are market risk (systemic) and residual risk (trading strategy: counter party and regulatory)
◎ broker may screw up; irs may dispute valuation
3 components of total portfolio risk
- specific
- systemic
- residual
3 psychological investor stages of owning concentrated stock position
- entrepreneurial
- executive
- investor (still attached to stock)
- investor indexing; unattached to stock)
4 ways to deal with concentrated security position
- sale: simple, max flexibility, complete, but realize gains
- public and private exchnage funds: better collateral, but 7 yr lock up and management fees
- completion portfolio: build diversified portfolio over time, but can take a while
- heding: fast, but danger of ‘constructive sale’
Taxes | constructive sale
- IRS term to indicate a hedging strategy is effectively a sale and that gains must be realized
- exps: a collar without any risk, a forward without any risk
- risk must be > 15% of the asset price
pre-paid forward
same as a forward, but payment for the asset is made up-front
asset management | human capital
PV of future earnings
• social security and pensions are included
asset management | financial capital
current market value of portfolio
asset management | total wealth
human capital + financial capital
asset management | human capital and earnings risk
- risk earnings could stop due to health or economics (job loss)
- minimized by higher savings, picking uncorrelated financial capital investments
asset management | longevity risk
- risk of out living financial capital (ruin)
- hedged with life time payout annuities
asset management | annuities & life insurance
good things to have in portfolio
assest management | individual utility function
untility (U) = exp(hc + fc)^(1 - d) / (1 - d)
hc + fc = human + financial capital
d = risk aversion score
asset management | including human capital into the portfolio
- use capital mkt theory (CML)
- if income is corr to equity mkt and volatile treat as an equity asset and overweight financial cap in low risk assets (eg bonds), otherwise treat as fixed income asset and do opposite
asset management | utility function with life insurance
max E[(1 - Pdeath,t)*(1 - D)*(Ualive)*(FCt+1 + HCt+1)] + (Pdeath,t)*(D)*(Udead)(FCt+1 + LIPO)
Pdeath,t = subjective prob of dying before t+1
D = scale 0 to 1 of desire to leave bequest; 1 is strong
U = utility from total wealth (if alive or if dead)
LIPO = life insurance payout
asset management | utility function with life insurance take-aways
- asset allocation and life insurance holdings should be solved for jointly
- if HC is risky (higher discount rate) or small, this reduces the amount of life insurance needed to replace it
- individual’s subjective belief of Pdeath
- If FC is large, then it should begin to mirror HC risk as HC decreases to balance risk in portfolio (???)
asset management | spending uncertianty risk
inability to predict spending per year and number of years
asset management | annuities
- contract paid for upfront (sometimes over time)
- pays out over life of beneficiary
- removes longevity risk
- 2 types: fixed, variable (combo is good in retirement)
asset management | 2 types of annuities
- fixed: constant nominal payment (eg $3,000/mo)
◎ inflation risk - variable: constant variable payment tied to underlying asset (eg market index, interest rate)
◎ exp. pays 6% of mkt val of initial principal
◎ reduces inflation risk
asset management | mortality risk
sudden death and follow on effects
• hedge is life insurance
asset management | 3 risks to maintaining lifestyle or bequests
- mkt risk
- longevity risk
- savings risk (aka spending uncertainty)