Causation Flashcards
Causation
Form of logic. Implies correlation between A + B; Implies chronology - A before B and it strongly suggests no competing cause. There are two types of causal event.
- Correlation and
- Co-Incidence
Premises give us either correlation or co-incidence
Either will be a competing explanation, Third common cause or no relationship.
Correlation
Two things (phenomena) that happen / change together (can take place over time).
“Correlation” is a “complex” phenomenon as correlation itself is a relationship between two “simpler” phenomena.
Empirically observed co-variance.
Empirically observed - data; tests; trials; what out see out in the world.
Co-variance - change that happens together.
When there are more than a few instances of phenomenon co-occurring, it ceases to be a coincidence and becomes a correlation. (It’s unclear how many instances that it takes, but it happens together a lot.)
1. A causes B
2. B causes A
3. C causes both A and B
4. No relationship
Co-Incidence
Few instances (one or two) of a phenomenon co-occurring. They happen together. But co-incidence doesn’t imply correlation.
Causation
Will either strengthen or weaken.
What is Causal Logic? Is it ever valid?
- Causal logic is not formal. It’s informal.
- Arguments that use causal logic will never be valid. Their premises, even when true, will never guarantee the truth of their conclusions. i.e. There can always exist some scenario where the cause is NOT true.
But, that doesn’t mean causal arguments are necessarily weak. In fact, causal arguments can be very strong.
KEY: Causation is the relationship between phenomena.
For causal arguments specifically, requires evaluating other hypotheses to decide whether the proposed hypothesis is the true explanation.
Causal claims can be chained together.
What are Phenomena?
A phenomenon is a fact or event. Phenomena can also be fast or slow.
BUT, not all phenomena are equal.
1. There are Phenomena that are Premises (i.e. potential Causes).
- There are Phenomena that are Target Phenomena (i.e. Effects / the phenomenon that prompted the search for an explanation / the thing that we’re trying to explain).
TARGET PHENOMENA are also known as Hypothesis.
What are Explanations?
An explanation is our way of trying to understand. It’s our way of telling a CAUSAL story to make sense of the PHENOMENA
i.e. An explanation is just a set of causally linked phenomena.
An entire diagram / chain of causally linked phenomena, is the “explanation.”
i.e. Causal claims can be chained together.
What is a Hypothesis?
A hypothesis is a potential explanation. A hypothesis is a guess, a story that we make up that tries to make sense of the TARGET PHENOMENA.
How can we tell which hypothesis is the true explanation and which one isn’t?
1. The hypothesis has to be testable in order for it to potentially be true / qualify to be a hypothesis.
2. A hypothesis is itself a phenomenon that can be explained in terms of causes (in relation to ____(what?))
If the ALTERNATIVE hypothesis is declared to be true and can explain the original phenomena, then what does that do to the original argument (support for the original hypothesis)?
If the alternative hypothesis is declared to be true and can explain the original phenomena, then THAT WEAKENS the original argument (support for the original hypothesis) BECAUSE there will be no need anymore to favor it (the original hypothesis / argument).
What benefit is there to evaluating a potential hypothesis by asking “How?”
By asking “How?”, in so doing, you’re SEARCHING for a causal mechanism which is a more detailed causal story. If you are able to Identify a causal mechanism, then that STRENGTHENS the original argument (support for the original hypothesis).
True or False: Causes must precede their effects?
It is a principle of causal logic that causes must precede their effects. That principle gives us another method to evaluate causal hypotheses. We can preclude any hypothesis that fails to respect this principle.
If finding SIMILAR causal phenomena is the route you’re taking to evaluate a hypothesis, then you want to make sure ____(what?)
So, if finding similar causal phenomena is the route you’re taking to evaluate a hypothesis, then you want to make sure THE PHENOMENA YOU”RE EXAMINING ARE ACTUALLY SIMILAR.
The more similar the better. Recognize that this is the LOGIC OF ANALOGOUS ARGUMENTS.
How might you decipher 2 different hypothesis that tell different causal stories?
Because different hypotheses tell different causal stories, one way to decide between them is to CHECK FOR CORROBORATING OR CONFLICTING EVIDENCE.
What are Predictions? How do they relate to Hypotheses?
Predictions are claims about the future. As such, they’re claims about events that have not yet taken place.
All hypotheses make predictions (even if they’re implicit) and different hypotheses make different predictions.
H => P
A final way to check a hypothesis is to see if its predictions are true or false.
Define “Positive” Correlation.
Positive correlation - move in the same direction.
If A and B are positively correlated, then they both increase or decrease together, in the same direction.
