C8,9 - Bond, Money and Eq, Property Market Flashcards
Who Issues MMI?
Government (treasury bills)
Regional government bodies (local authority bills)
Companies (bills of exchange, commercial paper)
Banks (different types of deposit)
Features of bank deposits
Cash On Deposit
Instant access – depositor can withdraw the money at any time
Notice deposit – depositor has to give a period of notice before withdrawal
Fixed term – depositor cannot access the capital until the end of the fixed term.
Certificates of Deposit
– tradable notes that state how much has been deposited
List the main players in money market
- Clearing Banks
Lend and borrow via short-term deposits (often overnight) to control their liquidity levels - Central Bank
Acts a lender of last resort
Standing by to provide liquidity to the clearing banks
Sets short term interest rates via repo arrangements and sale and purchase of bills - Other financial and non-financial institutions
Lend and borrow short term funds
Why hold MMI or Cash
- Liquidity: POURS
Protection of monetary value
Opportunities to invest in other assets can easily be exploited
Unexpected liabilities to meet
Recently received cashflow
Short-term liabilities to meet - Diversification
- Poor prospects of other assets : DIRE
Domestic currency expected to depreciate
Interest rates expected to rise
Recession expected
Economic uncertainty
Why not hold MMI
Lower expected return than other, riskier asset classes
Poor match for longer-term liabilities
Reinvestment risk, i.e. proceed will have to be reinvested on unknown terms
Short-term interest rates move broadly in line with price inflation
But not a good match for salary-linked liabilities
May be a limited supply
Asset Characteristics (SYSTEM T)
Security (default, other risks)
Yield (real/nominal, running yield, expected return)
Spread (volatility of market values, diversification)
Term (Short/Med/Long/Irredeemable)
Expenses and exchange rate (dealing costs, ongoing mgmt costs)
Marketability (size of issue/divisibility, liquidity, uniqueness, valuation, freq of dealing, listed)
Tax (capital gains, income)
Investor Characteristics (TRAITOR)
Tax (status, rates, allowance)
Regulation (solvency, legislation, voluntary, trust deeds)
Assets (existing pf, expertise, direct/indirect)
Income requirement (liabilities, income/capital gains, current/future)
Tastes (education/fashion/utility)
Objectives/Alternatives/Expenses)
Risk appetite
What is ‘Bond’
Bond:
- Fixed interest or Index linked security
- Described by the type of organisation issuing the security : Govt, Local authority, corporate
- Also call ‘gilts’
3 Types of bond market
- Government bond markets, listed in their country of origin
- Corporate bond markets, listed in their country of origin
- Overseas government and corporate bond markets, listed in other than the ‘home’ country. National vs listed country’s currency
Investment & Risk Characteristics of Conventional Government Bonds
- Income = coupons (usually semi-annual) fixed in nominal terms
- Capital = redemption (usually at par) fixed in nominal terms
- Virtually zero default risk if a developed country
- Lower expected return than expected return than equities and property (long term)
- Higher running yield than equities and property
- Provides a fixed nominal return. Real return eroded by actual inflation.
- Volatility of capital values higher for long-term than short-term bonds
- Term: short, medium, long, irredeemable
- Very low dealing costs if in a developed country
- Very marketable if a developed country
- Tax treatment depends on the territory
Cashflows in a conventional nominal bond
CONVENTIONAL
Bond purchase
-Initial lump sum negative cashflow equal to the price paid for the bond plus dealing expenses
Coupon payments
-Regular series of positive cashflows.
-Timing is known (usually semi-annual or annual)
-Amounts are known in monetary terms
-Total payment term is known
Redemption payment
-Lump sum positive cashflow on the redemption date
-Timing is known
-Amount is known
Cashflows of index linked bond
INDEX-LINKED
Bond purchase
-Initial lump sum negative cashflow equal to the price paid for the bond plus dealing expenses
Coupon payments
-Regular series of positive cashflows.
-Timing is known (usually semi-annual or annual)
-Amounts are known in real terms
-Total payment term is known
Redemption payment
-Lump sum positive cashflow on the redemption date
-Timing is known
-Amount is known is real terms
Nominal vs. Real Yields
Nominal yield = risk-free real yield + expected future inflation + inflation risk premium
Inflation Risk Premium
Reflects additional yield required by investors with real liabilities for bearing risk of uncertain future inflation.
Size of the premium is therefore determined by:
1. Degree of uncertainty over inflation
2. Balance between the numbers of investors requiring a fixed return and those requiring a real return
Relative attractiveness of index-linked vs conventional bonds
Relative attractiveness of index-linked vs conventional bonds
-If investor has real liabilities and hence requires inflation protection
-If investor expects future inflation to be higher than predicted by the market
-If investor expects the inflation risk premium to be higher than predicted by the market
(Note the above two reasons mean that, in the investor’s eyes, nominal yields will rise and the price of conventional bonds will fall. But this could occur with minimal effect on real yield and on index-linked bond prices)