business cycles Flashcards
business cycles
fluctuations from the trend of real GDP
booms
persistent positive deviations from trend
recessions
persistent negative deviations from trend
Hodrick-Prescott Filter
mathematical tool to separate a time series into trend & cycle
nature of deviations from trend in real gdp
no regularity in AMPLITUDE or FREQUENCY of fluctuations in real GDP
if deviations from trend in macroeconomic variable are positively (negatively) correlated with the deviations from trend in real GDP…?
then that variable is procyclical (countercyclical)
components of GDP (2)
- consumption
- investment
labor market variables (3)
- employment
- real wage
- average labor productivity
consumption’s correlation with real GDP (+/-)
positive (+) OR procyclical (coincident)
real investment’s correlation with real GDP (+/-)
positive (+) OR procyclical (coincident)
price level’s correlation with real GDP (+/-)
positive (+)
inflation rate’s correlation with real GDP (+/-)
positive at low inflation rates; negative at high inflation rates
employment’s correlation with real GDP (+/-)
positive (+) OR procyclical (lagging)
unemployment’s correlation with real GDP (+/-)
negative (-) OR countercyclical
average labor productivity’s correlation with real GDP (+/-)
positive (+) OR procyclical (coincident)