Budgeting and forecasting Flashcards

1
Q

What is financial planning?

A

Financial planning is a continuous process of directing and allocating financial resources and determining how an
organisation will meet its strategic goals and objectives.

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2
Q

What is budgeting?

A

Budgeting is an outline of a company’s financial plans, normally drawn up for the next full trading year. It is the process of creating a plan, also referred to as a financial budget, to project incomes and outflows for the next full year. It creates a baseline to compare actual results with the expected performance.

budgeting = a plan of what the company wants to achieve

It quantifies the expectations or targets (in terms of revenue, cost allocation, savings and so on) by outlining what a company wants to achieve.

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3
Q

What is financial forecasting?

A

Financial forecasting is the projection of a company’s future financial outcomes over a longer time period by
examining its historical and current financial data.

A financial budget establishes a picture of a company’s financial health, anticipates its funding requirements and presents a strategy for managing its assets, cash flow, income and expenses. It provides an overview of spending relative to revenues.

Budgets are an important tool to identify, allocate and manage the resources as they are needed.

It also helps in motivating employees by setting the objectives of the company and can be also linked to rewards where targets are met.

Forecasting = a prediction of what will actually be achieved

The company always needs a forecast to reveal the
actual circumstances and numbers that will be achieved

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4
Q

What is the most important budget in a company?

A

One of the most important budgets is a cash budget. A cash budget sets out the cash inflows and outflows for a
company over a specific period of time to ensure that there is enough cash within the company to operate and avoid
financial embarrassment.

It normally covers the next 12 months; however, it can also cover a short-term period such as a month or a quarter.

Cash budgets are used to control and monitor the actual cash receipts and cash payments against the budgeted figures.

On mapping of receipts and payments, a monthly cash surplus or cash deficit can be identified.

The preparation of this statement gives an early warning of the future cash position. This will help the finance manager
consider the timing of important decisions that will impact cash flows.

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5
Q

What is a Master budget?

A

The master budget shows how all the budgets work together to project combined incomes and outflows for the
company. Each of these budgets will be controlled by a budget holder, managing a specific section of the company.
Budgeting represents a company’s goals, financial position, profit and cash flows.

Budgets are presented mostly in the form of budgeted financial statements (profit or loss, financial position and cash flows). Detailed budgets include sales forecasts, production forecasts and other estimates that show whether the company is heading in the right direction.

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6
Q

Performance against budgets?

A

Performance against the budget is monitored and updated on a regular basis, ideally each month. This enables company managers to frequently analyse monthly actual results and forecast revenues and expenses for the remaining months of the year based on their real-time observations of the current market conditions – therefore revising the forecast.

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7
Q

What are the two types of budgets?

A

There are two types of budgets:

  1. flexible and
  2. static.
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8
Q

What is a static budget?

A

The most common type of budget is a static budget that projects a fixed level of expected input, output and costs. It
remains unchanged irrespective of the changes in volume or activity. The actual results at the end of the budget period
very often vary from the static budgets.

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9
Q

What is a flexible budget?

A

A flexible budget, also known as variable budget, is one that adjusts with changes in volume or activity.

It allows the budget to be adjusted throughout the year as company conditions change. The change can be due to delay in activity, change in volume or adding new activity.

The budget will include a variable rate per unit of activity instead of one fixed total amount.

A flexible budget is often more useful than a static budget.

For example, a company makes a static budget that has
budgeted the cost of running its machinery at £100,000 per month irrespective of the machine hours used.

However, in a flexible budget, the company can budget the running cost based on the average fixed cost of £34,000 + £6 per machine hour.

In a flexible budget, the values change to reflect changes in activity or output, allowing managers to adjust to the
needs of the business.

The flexible budget offers a better opportunity for planning and controlling than a static budget

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10
Q

Budgetary control?

A

Budgetary control

Once a budget is prepared, financial managers use budgetary control to control and monitor the actual results against the budgeted figure. The detailed analysis of variance (difference) is conducted to evaluate the performance of the project or budget area.

It allows costs and performance to be reviewed and adjusted where needed.

Controlling the budget is a critical responsibility of the budget holder or the project manager. It helps management to set financial and performance goals (such as sales or spending goals), then evaluate progress by comparing and analysing the actual costs and performance results with the budgeted goals. It allows managers to focus on poorly performing areas and strengthen the favourable ones.

The actual results are then compared with the budgeted performance over the entire period. A key element of budgetary control is providing a revised forecast of financial performance. Lastly, management will work to improve the under-performing areas and develop a plan to fix them in the next period.

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11
Q

What is the key objective of cash management?

A

The key objective of cash management is to avoid either a surplus or a deficit of cash by ensuring:

  1. there are adequate cash balances in times of need;
  2. surplus cash is invested or used to repay the existing debt to maximise the returns for the company; and
  3. there should not be a situation where there is deficit of cash due to unnecessary shortage of funds.

Cash management is a trade-off between liquidity and costs.

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12
Q

Why is there a need for cash?

A

Every transaction results in an inflow or outflow of cash. These inflows and outflows may not be synchronised.

Sometimes, the inflows are more than the outflows or vice versa.

The primary motive of holding cash is to maintain
a financial position in situations of certainty as well as uncertainty.

According to Keynes’ general theory of economics
(1936), there are three basic motives for holding cash

  1. The transaction motive
  2. The precautionary motive
  3. The speculative motive:
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13
Q

Explain the three basic motives for holding cash?

  1. The transaction motive
  2. The precautionary motive
  3. The speculative motive:
A
  1. The transaction motive:

maintaining enough cash to meet the day-to-day operations such as payments to vendors, petty expenditure and salaries.

Cash is received in the ordinary course of company from debtors (trade receivables) or investments. Often these inflows and outflows do not match, hence cash is required to meet these mismatches.

  1. The precautionary motive:

holding cash to meet contingencies and unexpected situations, such as providing a safety net for unexpected events.

  1. The speculative motive:

using cash to take advantage of profitable investment opportunities. For example, holding money will allow cheaper bonds or shares to be bought in the future.

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14
Q

What are the methods for Methods of dealing with cash surpluses and cash deficits?

A

Cash surplus

An entity has a cash surplus if it has enough money to cover at least a couple of months of overheads in an emergency.

A finance manager has to make the most of such a cash surplus. It can be used to either repay existing debts or to
invest in opportunities which will give returns to the entity.

Repayment of debt is usually the first option preferred by the organisation, as investment in short-term investments may not yield the savings that one may get on repayment of debt.

Cash deficit

When an organisation cannot meet its day-to-day cash expenditure, it experiences a cash deficit.

Cash deficits arise due to unnecessary shortages of funds.

When a situation of a cash deficit arises, the organisation may have to sell its assets, cut down its inventory levels, chase customers for payment or delay payments to employees and suppliers.

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15
Q

Financial markets?

A

A financial market is a marketplace where the financial wealth or assets (such as stocks or equities, bonds, currencies and derivatives) of individuals, institutions, governments and so on are traded. Trade is often conducted via a middleman called a broker or intermediary.

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16
Q

Financial market participants?

A

Financial market participants:

  1. Investors and lenders

An investor is a person or entity who invests or commits capital into an entity with the expectation of financial returns, either by subscribing to the shares of the entity or by purchasing its bonds or debentures. Any individual, company or other institution who owns at least one share of the company is considered to be a shareholder.

  1. A lender

A lender is an individual, a public or private group, or a financial institution that lends money with the expectation that it will be repaid with interest.

  1. Borrowers

A borrower is a person or entity who obtains funds (loans, bonds or debentures) from a company or individual for a
specified period of time upon condition of promising to repay the loan.

The terms of the loan are spelled out in a written document that is signed by both the lender and the borrower.

  1. Banks

A bank is a financial institution licensed to receive deposits and make loans. Banks play a major role in managing the
liquidity in the economy.

  1. Regulators

A financial regulator is an institution that supervises and controls a financial system to protect the interest of investors and to guarantee fair and efficient markets and financial stability.

For example, the London Stock Exchange (LSE) is
regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is regulated by the
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

17
Q

What is a private market?

A

Private markets

This is where transactions are held and executed OTC through private securities dealers.

The buyer and seller personally negotiate and execute the transaction, with no intermediary between the buyer and the seller.

Instruments are not publicly traded and hence, the liquidity in such instruments is reduced comparatively. They are not as regulated as the public markets, mainly because the general public is not affected. Participants normally include:

  1. banks
  2. venture capitalists
  3. private equity investors
  4. hedge funds

The investments in private markets carry greater risk than public market investments. Hence, the investors would expect greater returns from such investments. Investments are not affected by movements in public market investments.

18
Q

Advantages of a private market?

A

Advantages of private markets:

  1. Selective access to investors and less competition.
  2. Normally no intermediary between the buyer and the seller.
  3. Not tightly regulated and hence less compliance costs for the investee.
  4. Greater probability of providing higher returns.
19
Q

Dis-advantages of a private market?

A

Disadvantages of private markets:

  1. Investors usually do not have complete information at hand.
  2. Cannot be sold or purchased easily, making the investments less liquid than public markets.
  3. Highly risky, as they are essentially unregulated
20
Q

What is a public market?

A

Public markets

A public market is a market in which the general public can participate.

A typical example of a public market is a stock
exchange, a public market in which securities (shares and loan stocks) are bought and sold.

A person with as little as £10 can participate in such a market. Public markets are highly regulated as the exposure to the general public is greater.

They also offer greater liquidity, thereby enabling a smooth purchase or sale. However, the returns from investing in a public market may not be as exorbitant as the returns from the private market.

21
Q

Advantages and Dis-advantages of public markets?

A

Advantages of public markets

  1. No qualification or net worth criteria need to be fulfilled to enter the market.
  2. Highly regulated and transparent market, thereby reducing risk.
  3. Highly liquid investments.

Disadvantages of public markets

  1. Moderate returns.
  2. Regulated, with a high compliance burden on companies.

3 Highly speculative market.

22
Q

Efficient market hypothesis?

A

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) theory was developed by Eugene Fama in the 1960s.

It states that it is impossible to ‘beat the market’ if markets are efficient.

This is because the market prices fully reflect the available information and the stocks are therefore always trading at fair values.

In an efficient and perfect market, quoted share prices are as fair as possible because they accurately and quickly reflect
a company’s financial position, as well as its current and future profitability.

An efficient market ensures that the market price of all securities traded on it reflects all the available information.

A perfect market responds immediately to the information made available to it.

According to EMH, the market price of the share is reflective of an unbiased intrinsic value. This is also referred to
as fundamental value, which can be determined through fundamental analysis without taking its market value into
consideration.

The market price can deviate from an intrinsic value, but these deviations are not based upon any specific variant.

These deviations are random and cannot be correlated with any specific conditions. Based on this hypothesis, it would not be possible for investors or valuation experts to identify any overpriced or under-priced securities and take advantage of the market movements. This provides an equal opportunity to everyone in the stock markets.

23
Q

What are the levels of market efficiency?

A
  1. Weak form

Market prices are reflective of all historical information contained in the record of past prices. Share prices will follow a ‘random walk’, moving up or down depending on the next piece of information about the company that reaches the market.

The weak form implies that it is impossible to predict future prices by reference to past share price movements.

  1. Semi-strong form

Any new information is rapidly reflected in the share price. In semi-strong efficiency, all public information is already reflected in the share price. With this level of efficiency, share price can be predicted only if unpublished information is known through insider dealing.

Trading based on insider information to one’s own advantage, through having access to confidential information, is illegal in most countries.

  1. Strong form

Share prices reflect all available relevant information, published and unpublished, including insider information.

This implies that even insiders are unable to make abnormal returns as the market price already reflects all information.

Evidence suggests that insiders can still gain from such dealing in most markets.

For example, insiders such as directors have access to unpublished information. If the market was ‘strong form’, share prices would not move with the news of
potential takeover.

However, in practice, share prices tend to rise on the announcement of a takeover which implies that
most markets are ‘semi-strong form’ at best.

24
Q

In what form of market efficiency can money be made by insider dealing?

A

In what form of market efficiency can money be made by insider dealing?

Evidence suggests that stock markets are semi-strong market efficient at best. Any new information is rapidly reflected in the share price. In semi-strong efficiency, all public information is already reflected in the share price. With this level of efficiency, share price can be predicted only if unpublished information is known through insider dealing

25
Q

Provide an example of exceptions when a sudden price change is not triggered by new information about the company reaching the market.

A

There are times when sudden large price changes do not appear to be triggered by new information reaching the market.

There are also instances when prices change quickly, but not instantaneously, over short periods before price-sensitive
information is released by companies.

For example, in October 1987 the value of shares on the London Stock Exchange fell by one-quarter during the course of the month with no specific new information identified as the cause of the fall. In contrast, the steep fall in share prices in 2008 could be associated with the accumulated impact of the global credit crisis that started with sub-prime lending failures in the US.