Being Wrong Less

Question 1

Inverse thinking

Answer 1

Redefining a problem by using it’s oppositive. Instead of “being more right”, “being less wrong”. Instead of maximizing the return of an investment, minimize the losses. Remember, mathematical optimization can go both ways: minimizing loss, maximizing value. (eg. ML loss function

Question 2

Antifragile

Answer 2

An adjective to relate concepts that take advantage of randomness, volatility, and uncertainty. If your decision making is antifragile, it gets better after making mistakes. Antifragile goes beyond robustness or resilience.

Question 3

Occam’s razor

Answer 3

The simplest explanation is most likely to be true. This concept can help when defining the assumptions of a problem. Too many or too complicated assumptions can lead to wrong decisions.

Question 4

Arguing from first principles

Answer 4

Thinking from the bottom up. First-principles are the set of self-evident assumptions on which your problem rest. In the case of a mathematical problem, the first principles are the axioms that constitute the foundations of the formulas being used. Or the ingredients of a recipe for a chef.

Question 5

De-risking

Answer 5

Testing whether or not the fundamental assumptions are true in the real world.

Question 6

Premature Optimization

Answer 6

Doing too much work before testing the assumptions in the real world.

Question 7

Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

Answer 7

A product launched with the minimum amount of features that is feasible to be tested on the real world.

Question 8

Conjunction Fallacy

Answer 8

There is a tendency in choosing the most detailed explanations.

Question 9

Overfitting

Answer 9

Give an extremely complex solution to a problem that can be solved with a simpler one. (This concept is the same as overfitting in Statistics
or ML)

Question 10

Frame of reference

Answer 10

Also called reference frame. In Physics, it is the perspective that one uses to determine if an object is moving or not. In thinking, your reference frame is the point of view or perspective you use to tackle a problem.

Question 11

Framing

Answer 11

Setting the stages (reference frame) of a situation. Mostly used when explaining a problem.

Question 12

Nudging

Answer 12

Push someone to do certain actions by a subtle change

Question 13

Anchoring

Answer 13

Describes a tendency to rely on first impressions when making decisions. In other words, relying on the first piece of information received.

Question 14

Availability bias

Answer 14

A bias towards the most recent information.

Question 15

Filter Bubble

Answer 15

Due to availability bias you’re more likely to consume information that you’re familiar with. The search engines, Facebook, etc, will give you more information of the same topic/POV creating a filter bubble.

Question 16

Echo Chambers

Answer 16

When many similar filter bubbles are put together, you get echo chambers. The same ideas seem to bounce around the same groups of people.

Question 17

Third story

Answer 17

In any conflict between two people, the third story is the one from the perspective of an impartial external observer.

Question 18

Most respectful interpretation

Answer 18

Interpret the actions of the rest in the most respectful way giving them the benefit of the doubt.

Question 19

Halon’s razor

Answer 19

Never attribute to malice what can be caused by carelessness.

Question 20

Fundamental Attribution Error

Answer 20

Attempting to attribute other people’s errors to their internal or fundamental motivations instead of external factors.

Question 21

Self-serving bias

Answer 21

Individuals tend to attribute success to their own personality (intrinsic nature) and failure to circumstances.

Question 22

Semmelweis reflex

Answer 22

The Semmelweis reflex or “Semmelweis effect” is a metaphor for the reflex-like tendency to reject new evidence or new knowledge because it contradicts established norms, beliefs, or paradigms.

Question 23

Confirmation bias

Answer 23

The tendency to favor information that reinforces our existing beliefs.

Question 24

Disconfirmation bias

Answer 24

When a person has such strong beliefs that they have difficulty accepting any evidence to the contrary.

Question 25

Cognitive dissonance

Answer 25

Cognitive dissonance occurs when a person holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values, or participates in an action that goes against one of these three, and experiences psychological stress because of that.

Question 26

Playing Devil’s advocate

Answer 26

Playing Devil’s advocate means pretending to be against an idea that everyone agrees on (even you agree) for the sake of debate.

Question 27

Thinking in gray

Answer 27

Having to contradictory ideas in mind.

Question 28

Proximate cause

Answer 28

What immediately caused the problem.

Question 29

Root cause

Answer 29

The true cause of a problem.

Question 30

Postmortem

Answer 30

Examination of a cause after the event occurs.

Question 31

5 Whys

Answer 31

Asking the same question “Why did it happen?” repetitively (5 times in this case) until you find the root cause.

Question 32

Optimistic probabilistic bias

Answer 32

Being too optimistic about the probability of an outcome

Question 33

Just-world hypothesis

Answer 33

The just-world hypothesis is the belief that, in general, the social environment is fair, such that people get what they deserve. The just-world hypothesis is important because it suggests that people may treat certain victims badly, oddly enough, out of a desire to sustain their belief in justice.

Question 34

Victim-blame

Answer 34

Victim blaming occurs when the victim of a crime or any wrongful act is held entirely or partially at fault for the harm that befell them.

Question 35

Learned helplessness

Answer 35

Learned helplessness is a state that occurs after a person has experienced a stressful situation repeatedly. They come to believe that they are unable to control or change the situation, so they do not try — even when opportunities for change become available