Being Wrong Less Flashcards
Inverse thinking
Redefining a problem by using it’s oppositive. Instead of “being more right”, “being less wrong”. Instead of maximizing the return of an investment, minimize the losses. Remember, mathematical optimization can go both ways: minimizing loss, maximizing value. (eg. ML loss function
Antifragile
An adjective to relate concepts that take advantage of randomness, volatility, and uncertainty. If your decision making is antifragile, it gets better after making mistakes. Antifragile goes beyond robustness or resilience.
Occam’s razor
The simplest explanation is most likely to be true. This concept can help when defining the assumptions of a problem. Too many or too complicated assumptions can lead to wrong decisions.
Arguing from first principles
Thinking from the bottom up. First-principles are the set of self-evident assumptions on which your problem rest. In the case of a mathematical problem, the first principles are the axioms that constitute the foundations of the formulas being used. Or the ingredients of a recipe for a chef.
De-risking
Testing whether or not the fundamental assumptions are true in the real world.
Premature Optimization
Doing too much work before testing the assumptions in the real world.
Minimum Viable Product (MVP)
A product launched with the minimum amount of features that is feasible to be tested on the real world.
Conjunction Fallacy
There is a tendency in choosing the most detailed explanations.
Overfitting
Give an extremely complex solution to a problem that can be solved with a simpler one. (This concept is the same as overfitting in Statistics
or ML)
Frame of reference
Also called reference frame. In Physics, it is the perspective that one uses to determine if an object is moving or not. In thinking, your reference frame is the point of view or perspective you use to tackle a problem.
Framing
Setting the stages (reference frame) of a situation. Mostly used when explaining a problem.
Nudging
Push someone to do certain actions by a subtle change
Anchoring
Describes a tendency to rely on first impressions when making decisions. In other words, relying on the first piece of information received.
Availability bias
A bias towards the most recent information.
Filter Bubble
Due to availability bias you’re more likely to consume information that you’re familiar with. The search engines, Facebook, etc, will give you more information of the same topic/POV creating a filter bubble.
Echo Chambers
When many similar filter bubbles are put together, you get echo chambers. The same ideas seem to bounce around the same groups of people.
Third story
In any conflict between two people, the third story is the one from the perspective of an impartial external observer.
Most respectful interpretation
Interpret the actions of the rest in the most respectful way giving them the benefit of the doubt.
Halon’s razor
Never attribute to malice what can be caused by carelessness.
Fundamental Attribution Error
Attempting to attribute other people’s errors to their internal or fundamental motivations instead of external factors.
Self-serving bias
Individuals tend to attribute success to their own personality (intrinsic nature) and failure to circumstances.
Semmelweis reflex
The Semmelweis reflex or “Semmelweis effect” is a metaphor for the reflex-like tendency to reject new evidence or new knowledge because it contradicts established norms, beliefs, or paradigms.
Confirmation bias
The tendency to favor information that reinforces our existing beliefs.
Disconfirmation bias
When a person has such strong beliefs that they have difficulty accepting any evidence to the contrary.
Cognitive dissonance
Cognitive dissonance occurs when a person holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values, or participates in an action that goes against one of these three, and experiences psychological stress because of that.
Playing Devil’s advocate
Playing Devil’s advocate means pretending to be against an idea that everyone agrees on (even you agree) for the sake of debate.
Thinking in gray
Having to contradictory ideas in mind.
Proximate cause
What immediately caused the problem.
Root cause
The true cause of a problem.
Postmortem
Examination of a cause after the event occurs.
5 Whys
Asking the same question “Why did it happen?” repetitively (5 times in this case) until you find the root cause.
Optimistic probabilistic bias
Being too optimistic about the probability of an outcome
Just-world hypothesis
The just-world hypothesis is the belief that, in general, the social environment is fair, such that people get what they deserve. The just-world hypothesis is important because it suggests that people may treat certain victims badly, oddly enough, out of a desire to sustain their belief in justice.
Victim-blame
Victim blaming occurs when the victim of a crime or any wrongful act is held entirely or partially at fault for the harm that befell them.
Learned helplessness
Learned helplessness is a state that occurs after a person has experienced a stressful situation repeatedly. They come to believe that they are unable to control or change the situation, so they do not try — even when opportunities for change become available
