Being Wrong Less Flashcards
Oakham’s razor
Simplest explanation is most likely to be true. Trim down the list of assumptions to the most important ones
MVP Minimum viable product
Just enough features that can be tested by real people
Premature optimization
Doing too much work before testing exemptions in the real world
De-Risking
Testing your assumptions in the real world
Arguing from the first principles
Starting from the most basic building blocks which you know to be true and then build conclusions on top of them
Anti-fragile
Getting better with shocks
Unforced error
Errors caused by poor execution or bad judgment. Build techniques to make the best decision with the information available
Inverse thinking
Invert the question that you have been asking and see what Insight it provides
Conjunction fallacy
The probability of two events in conjunction is always less than or equal to the probability of either one of the events occurring alone. There is a tendency to think something specific is more probable than something general
Overfitting
The tendency to explain some thing with too many assumptions
Frame of reference
Your perspective
Framing
The way you present the situation or explanation
Nudging
Nudge in a direction by subtle what choice or environmental cues
Anchoring
Rely too heavily on first impressions when making decisions
Availability bias
Bias created by making information that is recently made available to you. Coverage of topics makes people think that it occurs more often than it does.
Filter bubble
Being attracted to information that you are already familiar with or agree with.
Echo chambers
A side effect of filter bubbles where the same ideas seems to bounce around the same groups of people. Causes people to over estimate the number of people who hold the same opinion.
Third story
The story that third impartial observer may recount
Most respectful interpretation
Interpret the other parties actions in the most respectful way possible. it’s giving people the benefit of the doubt.
Hanlon’s razor
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by carelessness.
Fundamental attribution error
Make errors by attributing others behaviors to their internal, our fundamental, motivations rather than external factors.
Self-serving bias or actor observer bias
Viewing your own behavior as because of circumstances and not internal motivations. The opposite of fundamental attribution error when it comes to yourself.
Veil of ignorance
To empathize with other people imagine yourself ignorant of your current position or place
Birth lottery
Not born in any type of disadvantaged group
Just world hypothesis
Believe that the world is completely fair, orderly and predictable. That people get the results they deserve based on their actions.
Victim blame
And effect of the just world hypothesis where the victim gets blamed for something that happened to them without accounting for any luck or random
Learned helplessness
Not trying to get out of their current situations because they have gotten used to the difficult situation.
Paradigm shift
Acceptance to a new theory or explanation after thinking about it in a different way for a very long time
Semmelweis reflex
Tendency to reject new ideas because they do not align with current conventional thinking. Semmelweis is the doctor who suggested that not washing hands after handling cadavers could be the reason for higher death of patience.
Confirmation bias
The tendency to consume new information in a way that confirms our existing beliefs
Backfire effect
Holding onto a position in spite of evidence contradicting it. It often backfires trying to change peoples opinion by presenting facts and figures
Disconfirmation bias
Imposing a stronger burden of proof on ideas that you don’t want to believe
Cognitive dissonance
The stress felt by holding two contradictory believes at the same time
Thinking gray
Truth is neither black nor white, it is a shade of gray. To avoid confirmation bias wait until you have heard all relevant facts and arguments before making a decision.
Devils advocate
Taking the opposite side of an argument even though you don’t agree with it.
Proximate cause
The immediate cause that made some thing happen
Root cause
The real reason something happened
Postmortem
Examination of a prior situation to determine how something happened and how it could go better the next time
5 whys 
Repeatedly asked the question ‘why did it happen’ to get to the root cause.
Optimistic probability bias
Sometimes you want something to be true so badly that you fool yourself into believing that it is likely to be true.
