Behavioral - Reverse Cards

Question 1

Experiences and biases that can facilitate problem-solving and probability judgements.

Examples in daily life are “trial and error” and “rules of thumb”

These strategies are generalizations that can result in inaccurate or irrational conclusions.

Answer 1

Heuristics

Question 2

The study of how psychology affects finance.

Answer 2

Behavioral Finance

Question 3

The tendency of investors to become attached to a specific price as the fair value of a holding.

Answer 3

Anchoring

Question 4

Holding onto an investment for emotional reasons rather than considering more practical applications.

Answer 4

Attachment Bias

Question 5

My grandfather left me this stock so I can never sell it.

Answer 5

Attachment Bias Example

Question 6

The feeling that because you own an asset, it is more valuable and special since it is yours. In reality, you might not even purchase the asset if you didn’t already own it.

Answer 6

Endowment Bias

Question 7

You inherited the family summer home and wouldn’t ever sell it even though it has become a money pit.

Answer 7

Endowment Bias Example

Question 8

The challenge of reconciling two opposing beliefs

Answer 8

Cognitive Dissonance

Question 9

Remembering the positive part of an experience but forgetting the negative.

Answer 9

Cognitive Dissonance Example

Question 10

The natural human tendency to accept any information that confirms our preconceived position or opinion and to disregard any information that does not support that preconceived notion.

Answer 10

Confirmation Bias

Question 11

An investor hears about a hot stock from an unverified source and is intrigued by the potential returns. That investor might choose to research the stock in order to prove its touted potential is real by focusing only on the positive aspects of the stock and disregarding any negative aspects.

Answer 11

Confirmation Bias Example

Question 12

Investors tend to diversify evenly across whatever options are
presented to them.

Answer 12

Diversification Errors

Question 13

Consider the style-box mania where investors feel compelled to own a piece of each box in order to be diversified. 401K participants tend to spread their money across whatever options they have.

Answer 13

Diversification Errors Example

Question 14

The tendency to take no action rather than risk making the wrong one.

Answer 14

Fear of Regret

Question 15

An investor holds onto a stock that’s losing value, because if they sold and it rebounded, they would feel even worse.

Answer 15

Fear of Regret Example

Question 16

Cognitive bias, in which a person makes decisions based on whether the various options are presented in a positive or negative way, meaning individuals can tend to overlook factual data. The person is more affected by how the information is worded rather than the actual information. This can manifest itself in investment decisions.

Answer 16

Framing Effect

Question 17

An individual erroneously believes that the onset of a certain random event is likely to happen following an event or a series of events.

Answer 17

Gambler’s Fallacy

Question 18

Some investors believe that they should liquidate a position after it has gone up in a series of subsequent trading sessions because they do not believe that the position is likely to continue going up.

Conversely, other investors might hold on to a stock that has fallen in multiple sessions because they view further declines as improbable. The solution is investors should base their decisions on analysis.

Answer 18

Gambler’s Fallacy Example

Question 19

The tendency for individuals to mimic the actions of a larger group. Can also be described as Fear of Missing Out (FOMO).

Answer 19

Herd Behavior

Question 20

This was exhibited in the late 1990’s as venture capitalists and private investors were frantically investing huge amounts of money into internet-related companies. Avoiding is steering clear of a bandwagon. Those overvalued investments took a big hit from which many have not recovered.

Answer 20

Herd Behavior Example

Question 21

The 20/20 vision we have when looking at a past event and thinking we understand it, when in reality we may not.

Answer 21

Hindsight Bias

Question 22

After a prolonged period of solid returns, the stock market declines by 15%. Immediately thereafter, all kinds of “experts” appear on television and in the mass media, proclaiming that we were long overdue for a correction, as if the decline were obvious and inevitable. But where were these experts before the event? If it was so obvious, why weren’t they speaking up before the market took a dive? If it was so obvious, why didn’t investors start cashing out just prior to the sell-off?

Hindsight biases also regularly manifest themselves between investment advisors and their clients. Once the reasons why an investment performed poorly are understood, it becomes difficult to understand why it wasn’t avoided.

Answer 22

Hindsight Bias Examples

Question 23

The tendency to look at recent events (or market performance) and assume that those events or conditions will continue indefinitely.

Answer 23

Inappropriate Extrapolation

Question 24

The bond market has outperformed the stock market for the past year and will continue to do so for the future because of the continued economic downturn.

Answer 24

Inappropriate Extrapolation Example

Question 25

This describes an individual/couple overanalyzing a situation and can cause decision making to become ‘paralyzed’, meaning that no solution or course of action is decided upon. A situation may be deemed as too complicated and a decision is never made, due to the fear that a potentially larger problem may arise. A person may desire a perfect solution but may fear making a decision that could result in error, while on the way to a better solution. Equally, a person may hold that a superior solution is a short step away, and stall in its endless pursuit, with no concept of diminishing returns.

Analysis paralysis is when the fear of either making an error outweighs the potential value of success in a decision made in a timely manner. This imbalance results in suppressed decision making in an unconscious effort to preserve existing options. An overload of options can overwhelm the situation and cause the “paralysis”, rendering one unable to come to a conclusion.

Answer 25

Analysis Paralysis (or Paralysis by Analysis)

Question 26

Investing is too complex so I will analyze all the various asset allocation strategies and create a plan. In the end, the investment plan is never created, and the money is still in cash.

Answer 26

Analysis Paralysis (or Paralysis by Analysis) Example

Question 27

While investors are risk averse when it comes to gains (they do not want to give them up), they are risk seekers when it comes to losses (they will take big risks to avoid realizing them). Given a choice between a sure gain and a chance to win more, people usually opt for the sure gain. Investors find losses roughly twice to two-and-a-half times as painful as gains are pleasurable. To avoid the emotional pain of loss, investors have a strong tendency to hang on to losers (they treat a loss as not real until it is realized). In some cases that may turn out to be a good decision and, in some cases, it may turn out to be bad. The problem is that the investor, faced with a loss, is largely leaving it now to “chance” and hope rather than to a sound and rationally informed decision based on a reassessment of the fundamentals.

Emotion has clouded the decision. Compounding the problem is that investor’s view errors of omission as worse than errors of making a bad decision. As a result, investors are biased toward inaction, and seriously underweight the cost of missed opportunities (opportunity cost).

Answer 27

Loss Aversion and Risk Taking

Question 28

An investor sells a strong-performing winner to lock in gains, without considering whether the investment remains attractive or whether a more attractive investment option exists. It turns out that the company is well managed with strong fundamentals, and even after the sale it continues to perform well. Meanwhile, the investor has held on to another loser, and used some of the proceeds from the sale of his winner to add to his holding in the loser in the hopes that even a partial rebound will cover the loss.

Answer 28

Loss Aversion and Risk Taking Example

Question 29

Describes the different ways people evaluate losses and gains. Researchers have found that losses have a much greater negative impact than a commensurate gain will have positive.

Answer 29

Prospect Theory (similar to Loss Aversion/Risk Taking)

Question 30

In a traditional way of thinking, the amount of utility gained from receiving $50 should be equal to a situation in which you gained $100 and then lost $50. The end result is the same which is most people view a single gain of $50 more favorably.

Answer 30

Prospect Theory (similar to Loss Aversion/Risk Taking) Example

Question 31

This entails looking at sums of money differently, depending on their source or the intended use.

Answer 31

Mental Accounting

Question 32

Some investors divide their investments between a safe investment portfolio and a speculative portfolio in order to prevent the negative returns that speculative investments may have from affecting the entire portfolio. All money is the same.

You invest in CDs (low interest) but you still have outstanding debt in your house at 5% (worse yet credit cards). The interest on your debt will erode any interest you can earn. While saving is important, sometimes it makes more sense to forego your savings in order to pay off debt.

Answer 32

Mental Accounting Example

Question 33

An economic theory positing that people have a tendency to view their wealth in nominal dollar terms rather than real terms which must take inflation into consideration. This can also be called “price illusion”.

Answer 33

Money Illusion

Question 34

The tendency to make a decision based on the desired outcome rather than on the probability of that outcome.

Answer 34

Outcome Bias

Question 35

The investor wants to double his money in an investment without doing adequate research.

Answer 35

Outcome Bias Example

Question 36

This is the tendency to place too much emphasis on one’s own abilities. It often works hand in hand with confirmation bias.

Answer 36

Overconfidence

Question 37

Example 1: Overconfident investors tend to believe they are better than others at choosing the best stocks and the best times to enter or exit a position.

NOTE: Even professional fund managers with investment industry reports often struggle

Example 2: A young fund manager has so much success that he begins to believe that the reason is his own exceptional talent and that investing just happens to come easy for him. He steadily increases the amount he is willing to bet on his convictions, while at the same time decreasing the amount of research that is behind them. Eventually the manager is wrong, and with this heavy over-weighting, disaster strikes.

Answer 37

Overconfidence Examples

Question 38

Investors emotionally react towards new market information.

Answer 38

Overreaction

Question 39

Good news comes out on a stock that should raise the price accordingly. However, participants overreact to the new information creating a larger-than-appropriate effect on the security. But the truth is new information should more or less be reflected instantly in the security’s price. Although the change is usually sudden and sizable, the surge erodes over time.

Answer 39

Overreaction Example

Question 40

Investors like patterns, and recent past represents a nice, easy-to-find pattern that can become the basis for an investment decision. A fund that just had a great year, or a stock that has had a great recent run, can influence investors to pull the trigger based on the assumption that the recent past will repeat itself in the future, but they make this decision with little real research. The same holds true for broader trends. The problem is that while some tend to persist, others tend to revert to the mean, and there is no way to gauge which is more likely without doing research.

Answer 40

Over-Weighting the Recent Past

Question 41

An investor reads a study that says short-term mutual fund winners tend to persist. On that basis he decides to invest in several top funds from the prior year, and to revisit his holdings the following year. A few funds do well, but one collapses as its highly specific investment and aggressive style falls out of favor, leading to poor overall results.

Answer 41

Over-Weighting the Recent Past Example

Question 42

The belief that when something goes right, it is because you were smart and made the right decision. If it does not work out, it is someone else’s fault or simply bad luck.

Answer 42

Self-Affirmation Bias

Question 43

Investors seek patterns that help support decisions sometimes without adequate confirming research.

Answer 43

Spotting Trends That Are Not There

Question 44

When the NFC wins the Super Bowl is not a basis for an investment decision.

Answer 44

Spotting Trends That Are Not There Example

Question 45

The tendency of investors to do nothing when action is actually called for.

Answer 45

Status Quo Bias

Question 46

None necessary, it is an everyday occurrence.

Answer 46

Status Quo Bias Example

Question 47

Money scripts are subconscious beliefs people have regarding money, many of which were developed in childhood. Personal experience and family values can impact money scripts. The four most common money scripts are:
* Money avoidance
* Money worship
* Money vigilance
* Money status

Answer 47

Money Scripts